What's got to happen for us to win the league...

[Butch]

Right, nine games to go...

A lot of Chelsea fans are getting desperate - some still feel we have a chance, some feel we're clutching at straws and some have completely lost faith.

But whichever category you may fall into, this is what has to happen in the remaining nine games for Chelsea to clinch a third league title on the trot.

Let's first concentrate on Man Utd: Out of nine matches, at a minimum they must lose one and draw two. This is because Chelsea are 6 points behind with a much inferior goal difference. So, Chelsea must make up 7 points on Man Utd, equating to 3 wins (9 points) while Man Utd pick up no more than 2 draws (2 points) in any 3 game span, provided they make the same number of points in the remaining 6 matches.

For a side that have kept on winning matches they haven't deserved to, I think we can all see that 2 draws and a defeat in their remaining 9 matches is just about still in the realm of possibility. But for this to be enough for Chelsea to catch up, we'd have to win all 9 of our remaining matches. The question then becomes, "is THAT a reasonable expectation". If it isn't, and we drop anymore points, Man Utd would ALSO have to drop those extra same number of points, in addition to the 2 draws and 1 defeat.

A key match will be that game at Stamford Bridge between the two sides. A Man Utd defeat in any other match is looking less and less likely, so it will be up to Chelsea to beat them at the Bridge. If we can do that, the possibility that we can overhaul them is that much higher. If we don't, then of course it will be quite unlikely (though not impossible) that this will happen.

I haven't had a chance to compare the remaining 9 matches, in terms of opponents, so if anyone would like to do that as a response to this post, that would be most welcome.

This coming weekend is, I feel, one where all Chelsea fans can have some hope of clawing back some points. Man Utd have to play Bolton, while Chelsea play Sheff Utd. If they can get through this weekend unscathed (same 6 points or more ahead), then their odds will be looking even better. But, if they slip up, as is entirely possible, then Chelsea will have to make sure they capitalize.

Keep the faith!

Cheers,

Butch

[TomP]

Personally, i'm hoping that the Chelsea-ManU match doesn't get moved to the end of the season.

I have no doubt we will beat them, and I think that a defeat to us will really knock the wind out of their sails, and give us a huge boost in confidence.

So, it would be much better if that happened with 2 or 3 matches to go.

[ethicalstrategy]

I'm definitely with Butch on this one.

It will be difficult but it is possible. In order to do it there are a couple of things that must happen:

First, we must beat them at the Bridge. If we can't do that then there is no way we will win.

Secondly, Utd have to draw 2 matches. That is not out of the question. In fact with the injuries they are starting to get it is looking more and more possible.

Lastly, and most difficult, we have to win all our remaining matches. Away to Arsenal and Newcastle look to be the most likely problems.

All of the postponements mean that we will have a lot of matches shoehorned in at the end of the season and it would be remarkable if we could do it, but you never know with this team - you just never know!

[BLUENUT]

My brother just emailed me this:

There next 2 games Bolton and Blackburn at home. Anything but maximum points will have them worried. Imagine if they drew both games, we beat the Spurs in the cup and make it to the final. That means the Man U league game gets moved to the last game of the season. We beat them to take the title then do ?em in the cup final for the domestic treble. Knock the scousers out of Europe in the semi?s and beat Man U again in Athens for the quad. Beating all our closest rivals in the process(Arsenal, Spurs, Man U & Liverpool), it just would?nt ever get any better. I think I?d explode.

my reply:

relegation for west ham and leeds go out of business. Or am i just getting carried away

[midlandblue]

you may have set the bar a little to high there.

I say "may"

[TT]

In the corresponding games from last season we took maximum points except for Newcastle away, and that game was the last game of the season after we had already won it.

Chelsea stats

In manure's correspondinng games from last season they dropped 11 points !!!

manure stats

Keep the faith.

[sergeyMS]

Lookin to what a history shows us I put everything on an injury list.

So for me it`s just a "funny" gamble....

The first half of a season coin was on a flip side.....

And I agree that two draws - easy business.

[Paul_Seery]

I am in the group that feels that we still can win the title this season. Otherwise what was the point in fate letting us win at Everton and Wigan, getting an equaliser at old Trafford, United blowing leads at Newcastle and Arsenal. I believe in mircales and feel it would be sensational if Chelsea snatch it. Also it would be amazing if the title race goes to the wire al la 1995.

[g3.7]

if we don't win the league, and, we probably won't, I'd love us to have a go... to play some more attacking stuff.

to win it, we probably need to take maximum points, including arsenal away.

[Mod]

We cannot lose any game, or even draw, we must make 3 points every game. This way, the pressure is on Utd. If we draw or drop points, their confidence will just go mad.

Maybe their recent dip in form, winning just at the end, is down to us winning games, its giving them more to think about.

We need to win every game, no messing.