Bookies Odds

[Ilya]

Apologies if this has been discussed.

What is the accepted wisdom w.r.t. the logic that bookies would try to acquire as much reliable information as the can in order to set the transfer betting odds or at the very least would have someone do a little research into sources of individual rumours and assess reliability?

And thus it can be useful to check current odds to see if the rumours have any legs or just some made up crap.

E.g. on current odds:

- Courtois: probably (very likely) gone

- Willian: more likely gone than stays

- Hazard: probably (very likely) stays 

 - Morata: roughly 50:50 stay:leave

- acquisitions: none of them exactly nailed on

 

[Ashleyb66]

Apologies if this has been discussed.

What is the accepted wisdom w.r.t. the logic that bookies would try to acquire as much reliable information as the can in order to set the transfer betting odds or at the very least would have someone do a little research into sources of individual rumours and assess reliability?

And thus it can be useful to check current odds to see if the rumours have any legs or just some made up crap.

E.g. on current odds:

- Courtois: probably (very likely) gone

- Willian: more likely gone than stays

- Hazard: probably (very likely) stays 

 - Morata: roughly 50:50 stay:leave

- acquisitions: none of them exactly nailed on

It’s done on information I think readily available but the main part for them is the money placed on a bet will instantly change odds. Also if there are a few larger bets placed the bookies sometimes stop the market altogether. I doubt they have or would be allowed to trade on insider knowledge as it is illegal with stocks and shares and imagine it can’t be legit if you go the same with this too 

 

[Ilya]

It’s done on information I think readily available but the main part for them is the money placed on a bet will instantly change odds. Also if there are a few larger bets placed the bookies sometimes stop the market altogether. I doubt they have or would be allowed to trade on insider knowledge as it is illegal with stocks and shares and imagine it can’t be legit if you go the same with this too 

Yes, of course it is largely driven by the bets already placed. But I would be surprised if they didn't - to some degree - incorporate some additional info.

Even if they are just using public info - it's nice to have someone weed out the crap. Like you know, differentiate between Milinkovic Savic rumour - which was always complete crap, and Rugani rumour - which had something tangible behind it.

Also, I don't know the full facts, but I would be very surprised if the rules that prohibit buying/selling stocks applied in exactly the same way to a betting company putting out a proposition to the market: (a) it's a different, less regulated industry (b) the position of a buyer/seller is different to the position of someone actually "issuing" the thing being bought or sold. A company is entitled to use insider knowledge when issuing shares.

 

[Ashleyb66]

Yes, of course it is largely driven by the bets already placed. But I would be surprised if they didn't - to some degree - incorporate some additional info.

Even if they are just using public info - it's nice to have someone weed out the crap. Like you know, differentiate between Milinkovic Savic rumour - which was always complete crap, and Rugani rumour - which had something tangible behind it.

Also, I don't know the full facts, but I would be very surprised if the rules that prohibit buying/selling stocks applied in exactly the same way to a betting company putting out a proposition to the market: (a) it's a different, less regulated industry (b) the position of a buyer/seller is different to the position of someone actually "issuing" the thing being bought or sold. A company is entitled to use insider knowledge when issuing shares.

I certainly did not say that the FSA regulates rules are the Same for the the gambling commission but nearly stated that profiting on insider knowledge is illegal and would also be illegal in gambling. 

If it’s something you are really interested in i quickly googled the regulation and this came up first I haven’t read it as it’s pretty long but I’m sure it would answer any questions you have 

http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/PDF/Misuse-of-inside-information.pdf