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Timo Werner

Spiller86 said:
Your thoughts on Jimenez and his price are all fair. I like him a lot as a player but it'd be hard to get a deal. Other player I like a lot for the right price is Osimhen from Lille but again he may be too similar to Tammy. Key thing is that new strikers emerge every year. No one knew who Jovic was 18 months ago. Haaland most didn't know who he was 6 months ago. We have a good one in Tammy I'm happy to strengthen our goals in other parts of the park and wait for the right player.  

As far as overall approach for me it comes down to price and risk. Jimenez was a 12 month loan with the option to buy. Very low risk. The best clubs at working the market and I'll single out Napoli, Juventus and Dortmund do a great job at taking on talent at the right price with low risk. 

Our strategy for a few years has been big fees for potential. Pulisic, Morata and Kepa are three recent examples of us paying huge money for players who we couldn't be sure about. 2 of the 3 haven't worked out, 1 could still be a good signing. I'd put Werner in that category 60m buyout for a guy with a big ceiling but some real question marks. Notably does he suit England and can he finish in the big moments. Those are huge questions and for me that isn't smart business.

Like most I think our best transfer work was done when Emenalo bought DeBruyne, Courtois, Lukaku, Zouma and Oscar for not much. We took some risks but they were done at the right price. I'd like to see us invest more like that and save the 60m fees for players who are at the elite end and we have less questions about.
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That's a sensible post but you have to take into consideration the realities of today's transfer market. Emenalo was operating in a different climate. Ten years ago paying that kind of money for someone like Werner would be considered an act of madness, now it's talked about as a reasonable fee that's supposed to attract several clubs to compete for his signature in the summer. Saving 60m fees for players who are at the elite end would have been great but can you name a proven elite striker who's available and can be bought for that kind of money? It's not like we're choosing between 25-year old versions of Aguero, Drogba and Henry and yet somehow inexplicably going after Werner. Forget the world class stars, nowadays almost anyone who's had one very good season has a buyout fee that would be what a top club spent on a whole window just a few years ago.

I agree that better scouting and low risk deals make a lot of sense and we've been failing in that respect over the last few years. But I wouldn't use Dortmund and Napoli as examples. These clubs are more like stepping stones for players to showcase their talents before getting their dream transfers to top clubs. Dortmund does win Bundesliga on occasion but they're a selling club and Napoli won nothing of note in years. Juve is a special case, they're the biggest and richest club in Italy, so while their transfer business model is quite successful, I'm sure their wage bill is enormous and they operate in the league where they're the biggest draw in terms of prestige and can offer best financial terms whereas in the PL even the midtable clubs get so much money from the league, it'd take a king's ransom to get them to sell their best assets.

 
abramovich said:
That's a sensible post but you have to take into consideration the realities of today's transfer market. Emenalo was operating in a different climate. Ten years ago paying that kind of money for someone like Werner would be considered an act of madness, now it's talked about as a reasonable fee that's supposed to attract several clubs to compete for his signature in the summer. Saving 60m fees for players who are at the elite end would have been great but can you name a proven elite striker who's available and can be bought for that kind of money? It's not like we're choosing between 25-year old versions of Aguero, Drogba and Henry and yet somehow inexplicably going after Werner. Forget the world class stars, nowadays almost anyone who's had one very good season has a buyout fee that would be what a top club spent on a whole window just a few years ago.

I agree that better scouting and low risk deals make a lot of sense and we've been failing in that respect over the last few years. But I wouldn't use Dortmund and Napoli as examples. These clubs are more like stepping stones for players to showcase their talents before getting their dream transfers to top clubs. Dortmund does win Bundesliga on occasion but they're a selling club and Napoli won nothing of note in years. Juve is a special case, they're the biggest and richest club in Italy, so while their transfer business model is quite successful, I'm sure their wage bill is enormous and they operate in the league where they're the biggest draw in terms of prestige and can offer best financial terms whereas in the PL even the midtable clubs get so much money from the league, it'd take a king's ransom to get them to sell their best assets.
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All fair points Abramovich, particularly re: Emenalo.

I have a different view on the stepping stone club piece. We are no longer top of the food chain. In the last two seasons we've sold two of our best players. We have become a stepping stone club too regardless of whether we like it. FFP (which we are determined to meet while others flaunt it) means we often need to sell to buy. Combine that with the fact we have struggled recently to compete (or even participate in Europe) and we need to adjust our sights. I'd very much put us in the same tier as Napoli or Dortmund. 

Personally I think the deals are there for less if you look beyond the obvious. Fabian Ruiz to Napoli two seasons ago is a top example. Had a great season with Betis, left footed tall midfielder which is very rare in the market. They snapped him up. Similarly look at Dortmund and Haaland or any number of others they have purchased. 

My overarching point is we can be, and have to be smarter to really rebuild our strength and get back towards the top tier. Spending 60m on a second striker with big question marks isn't the right approach in my view. 

 
It’s not a question of strategy, Juventus are completely different to say A**x or to Dortmund toPorto but in execution of that strategy. FFP and other things change but talent remains talent. In Emenalo’s era we executed well, since then less so. If Lampard can convert his play youth and attack at all costs philosophy into serious results emerging talent might want to play at Chelsea. The bets on Keppa and Morata were just poorly  judged, maybe Kepa will still come good. In short talent identification and management is a skill just like playing. We have slipped in recent years but the situation is far from irretrievable. 

 
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ozboy said:
The bets on Keppa and Morata were just poorly  judged, maybe Kepa will still come good. In short talent identification and management is a skill just like playing. We have slipped in recent years but the situation is far from irretrievable. 
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The Kepa acquisition begs questions for me, did they judge him on criteria like shot stopping, collecting high balls or was it just word of mouth. I ask as something definitely does not add up.

 
Also.  I disagree to an extent we are a selling club. Leaving aside courtois who didn’t want to be in England we’ve not done badly at hanging onto players. And when we have sold we’ve sold well. We got fantastic prices for Morata and Costa considering their post Chelsea careers. And I would say we sold Hazard at just the right time, he’s hardly played this season. It was only in Jose’s second spell we really stuffed up losing de bruyne and salah and evening cuadrado. 

 
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Strider6003 said:
The Kepa acquisition begs questions for me, did they judge him on criteria like shot stopping, collecting high balls or was it just word of mouth. I ask as something definitely does not add up.
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Oh come on, you've got to be on a wind up. I realise your erm... Wacky. But for f**ks sake, thinking we might have paid £70h for a player on word of mouth is just ridiculous. Of course we scouted him. 

 
ozboy said:
Also.  I disagree to an extent we are a selling club. Leaving aside courtois who didn’t want to be in England we’ve not done badly at hanging onto players. And when we have sold we’ve sold well. We got fantastic prices for Morata and Costa considering their post Chelsea careers. And I would say we sold Hazard at just the right time, he’s hardly played this season. It was only in Jose’s second spell we really stuffed up losing de bruyne and salah and evening cuadrado. 
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We've done well selling definitely. But the fact we have become good at selling underlines the fact that we aren't a destination club where players stay until they retire or we decide to move them on. Hazard and Courtois the two best examples. Two of the best three players in the squad essentially refused contract offers to leave for new pastures where they can win bigger things. First time I can remember that happening in the Abramovich era. Contrast that with Hazard picking us in 2012 over Madrid etc.

We can get back there for sure. But our scouting and recruitment must improve immeasurably. You can see with Atletico what a difference some good scouting and good home grown talent can make. They have lifted themselves massively in the period we have been dropping. Napoli and Dortmund similar. That sort of approach can see us back in the QFs of Europe minimum for a decade.

 
Spiller86 said:
We've done well selling definitely. But the fact we have become good at selling underlines the fact that we aren't a destination club where players stay until they retire or we decide to move them on. Hazard and Courtois the two best examples. Two of the best three players in the squad essentially refused contract offers to leave for new pastures where they can win bigger things. First time I can remember that happening in the Abramovich era. Contrast that with Hazard picking us in 2012 over Madrid etc.

We can get back there for sure. But our scouting and recruitment must improve immeasurably. You can see with Atletico what a difference some good scouting and good home grown talent can make. They have lifted themselves massively in the period we have been dropping. Napoli and Dortmund similar. That sort of approach can see us back in the QFs of Europe minimum for a decade.
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What about Robben for instance. Ferguson used to sell players around  their peak and I’d argue that’s where Hazard was. He had  7 years here only missing out on the champions league trophy. I do agree we don’t seem to be spending as much as 5 years ago, but we know money has to be coupled with skill. Let’s get Emelano back and see if we can’t stand in the same river twice. 

 
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Spiller86 said:
Your thoughts on Jimenez and his price are all fair. I like him a lot as a player but it'd be hard to get a deal. Other player I like a lot for the right price is Osimhen from Lille but again he may be too similar to Tammy. Key thing is that new strikers emerge every year. No one knew who Jovic was 18 months ago. Haaland most didn't know who he was 6 months ago. We have a good one in Tammy I'm happy to strengthen our goals in other parts of the park and wait for the right player.  

As far as overall approach for me it comes down to price and risk. Jimenez was a 12 month loan with the option to buy. Very low risk. The best clubs at working the market and I'll single out Napoli, Juventus and Dortmund do a great job at taking on talent at the right price with low risk. 

Our strategy for a few years has been big fees for potential. Pulisic, Morata and Kepa are three recent examples of us paying huge money for players who we couldn't be sure about. 2 of the 3 haven't worked out, 1 could still be a good signing. I'd put Werner in that category 60m buyout for a guy with a big ceiling but some real question marks. Notably does he suit England and can he finish in the big moments. Those are huge questions and for me that isn't smart business.

Like most I think our best transfer work was done when Emenalo bought DeBruyne, Courtois, Lukaku, Zouma and Oscar for not much. We took some risks but they were done at the right price. I'd like to see us invest more like that and save the 60m fees for players who are at the elite end and we have less questions about.
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It would great if someone just came from nowhere although we have seen in the past with the likes of Piatek, and Belotti, sometimes players can just have an exceptional season, without actually going on to be a really top player. 

Theres obviously risks involved with any signing, Ive seen you mention the £60m figure for Werner, but he could be a lot cheaper. There is definitely a buy out clause in there, but its reported to be anywhere from £30m to £60m. 

If its closer to the £30m mark, surely that is a risk worth taking. It would be as low risk a transfer as what we could possibly make. 

Osimhen really impressed me in that game at lille, he seems to have that bit of arrogance and aggresion, that alot of the best goal scorers have. 

Personally i also like Isak aswell, we were linked to him before he went to Dortmund, and although it didnt work out for him there, he has been impression in the couple of games ive seen of him for sociedad, who are actually quite an entertaining side this season with odegaard looking like the real deal.

Im not sure what approach we will take going forward, Its very hard to replicate that Emanalo model in todays climate. I think you havr to double the prices at least if we were after similar players now. De bruyne cost £7m, Berge has just gone for 3 times that. 

I just think we need to stop wasting money on players arent even international level, and aremt better than players we havr coming through our own academy. 

 
dkw said:
Oh come on, you've got to be on a wind up. I realise your erm... Wacky. But for f**ks sake, thinking we might have paid £70h for a player on word of mouth is just ridiculous. Of course we scouted him. 
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And yet he has been so far below expectation it begs the question who did scout him and how often they watched him!

 
ozboy said:
What about Robben for instance. Ferguson used to sell players around  their peak and I’d argue that’s where Hazard was. He had  7 years here only missing out on the champions league trophy. 
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Fair. If memory serves Robben and Jose weren't getting along because of his injuries. Does anyone else remember what was going on there?

big blue said:
It would great if someone just came from nowhere although we have seen in the past with the likes of Piatek, and Belotti, sometimes players can just have an exceptional season, without actually going on to be a really top player. 

Theres obviously risks involved with any signing, Ive seen you mention the £60m figure for Werner, but he could be a lot cheaper. There is definitely a buy out clause in there, but its reported to be anywhere from £30m to £60m. 

If its closer to the £30m mark, surely that is a risk worth taking. It would be as low risk a transfer as what we could possibly make. 

Osimhen really impressed me in that game at lille, he seems to have that bit of arrogance and aggresion, that alot of the best goal scorers have. 

Personally i also like Isak aswell, we were linked to him before he went to Dortmund, and although it didnt work out for him there, he has been impression in the couple of games ive seen of him for sociedad, who are actually quite an entertaining side this season with odegaard looking like the real deal.

Im not sure what approach we will take going forward, Its very hard to replicate that Emanalo model in todays climate. I think you havr to double the prices at least if we were after similar players now. De bruyne cost £7m, Berge has just gone for 3 times that. 

I just think we need to stop wasting money on players arent even international level, and aremt better than players we havr coming through our own academy. 
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The figure I have seen is that it is between 50 and 60 but with extra add ons. As you say its all about price. If the figure was 30 that would lower the risk substantially.

Isak will be a good player once he grows into his limbs. He is a bit spindley at the moment. A bit like Tammy and Lukaku were at that age.

Broadly I agree with your point. At a minimum we could do away with the Drinkwater, Zappacosta signings and we'd be a lot better off. 

 
I think one thing we need to keep in mind, and somebody else brought up a similar point in another thread, is that part of the reason that we don’t get these bargain deals is because it does not benefit the agent if the player makes the jump to a big club like Chelsea straightaway.

They get 2 paydays instead of 1. Haaland will move to a huge club sometime in the next few years and his agent will get another huge sum. So of course they will push their players to go to a smaller club. It’s likely that Haaland was not even made available to us.

Our scouting team either has to identify these players when they are very young and bring them in and develop them (not easy to do), or we have to wait until they’re more established and pay an arm and a leg to get them here.

 
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If Haaland keeps going as he is every top club will be throwing Mbappe level sums to sign him.

 
Haaland looks pretty incredible. His place, shot, physique work ethic just absolute to notch. 19 years old...

 
Yup. That should be in. Leipzig is playing like we try to play. Lot of chances but no goals. Exposed to ca.

 
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