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TT Tips (Home to Birmingham)


TT

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Firstly, I am trying my usual scores, and see where it gets me:

?20 on 1-0 @ 7/1

?40 on 2-0 @ 11/2

?20 on 3-0 @ 15/2

I am also starting a home win accumulator bet, and placed ?90 on us to win @ 2/9. The idea is that I will take whatever my return is (e.g. ?110) and place it on us to win our next home game, etc... The only problem is that I have not yet decided how long to keep the Accumulator going. I am thinking of running it for 6 games, but that may depend on my returns. The good thing about running an accumulator this way (match by match) is that it allows me to get the best possible odds on each game. The bad thing is that it becomes tempting to pull out of the accumulator if a nice profit is made.

The 6 home games would be Birmingham, Portsmouth, Blackburn, Fulham, Manchester City, and Everton. Surely we can win all of those (especially at the beginning of the season before we get any injurries 259.gif ). The trouble is, why not extend it to 9, and include West Ham, Sunderland, and Aston Villa ?

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TT, am tempted to do something similar re the accumulator. Can you tell me a bit more about you theory? Ie, do you place a bet with the bookie that we will win our first 6, or do you relay the bet for each home game and invest the total winnings each time, so the amount you are betting, and so hopefully winning, increases?

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TT, am tempted to do something similar re the accumulator. Can you tell me a bit more about you theory? Ie, do you place a bet with the bookie that we will win our first 6, or do you relay the bet for each home game and invest the total winnings each time, so the amount you are betting, and so hopefully winning, increases?

Tim,

I am having to do it one game at a time (re-invest the total returns to the next match). I am not aware of any bookmaker offering odds on us to win our first 6 games, but even if they did, I will still get much better odds by taking it one game at a time (as I have accounts with almost all of the major bookmakers I can take the best odds on each game).

From the first 9 home games of the season, we did not win against 3 of them last season. But, I think we can get back to our 2005/06 home form when we won 18 out of our 19 home games.

If we win our first 6 home games I may take some of the profit, and then take the remainder into the next 3 home games. But, I will have to wait and see what the profit is (if anything).

The hard part comes when we play one of the stronger sides at home. You get better odds, but also a higher risk of the accumulator losing. You always have the choice just to miss certain games out of the accumulator if you have a bad feeling about them.

Cheers, TT

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Cheers TT, one final question (and probably a stupid one). Do you lose the money if it's a draw?

As you can tell, im not exactly a old hand at this gambling lark, but have various accounts that can be reactivated, so why not!

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Just to demonstrate the kind of retun you could get on a 6 game home accumulator:

Let's take as an example the odds of 2/9 on us to win at home as an average (some games the odds could be better, but some could be worse).

With my ?90 original bet:

After game 1 would have ?110

After game 2 would have ?134.44

After game 3 would have ?164.32

After game 4 would have ?200.83

After game 5 would have ?245.46

After game 6 would have ?300.01

Therefore, regardless of what orginal stake you choose, you can at least double it if we win 4 games, and at least treble it if we win 6 games. If we were to win all 9 of our first home games I could get around ?550 back from my original ?90).

But, off course, if on any one game we do not win, then the accumulator is completely busted, and everything is lost.

P.S. Last season the odds for us to win at home to spurs was 1/2. Therefore, if a couple of the odds are much lower than 2/9 then the overall return will be much higher than what I have quoted above.

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Cheers TT, one final question (and probably a stupid one). Do you lose the money if it's a draw?

As you can tell, im not exactly a old hand at this gambling lark, but have various accounts that can be reactivated, so why not!

Tim, Yes, you lose the lot if we draw.

You can find bets which offer a "draw no bet" option, but the odds you would get are greatly reduced. You would need to consider betting on the entire season for us not to lose at home to get any kind of return (and even then the return may not be a great one).

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We can easily share points with Everton and Aston Villa.

Look here first you launch it for 5 really easy games.

And then starting from Everton you launch new one, having greater odds, because of greater opponents. After 4 games (Everton - Aston Villa) you would decide to continue or not depending on opponents, but I can imagine it`s something difficult, otherwise you would continue this row.

But taking into consideration that 2nd accamulator was working just 4 games it`s easy to continue because you don`t lose relatively much anyway.

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I think that it will be a close game. I can see us winning 1-0 but I've got a bad feeling that we might actually concede a goal.

So maybe 2-1. I just hope we win it so we get a good start. Then we can move on to Reading and break someones legs icon_rolleyes.gif

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TT, I wouldn't commit myself to a series of games like the 6 or so you propose, mainly because you have nothing to benefit from - no enhanced odds or special circumstances. Take your winnings from each game and look at the next one with new eyes (as they say), taking into consideration form, injuries etc. and then place your stake accordingly. If you win the ?110 this weekend but lose a lot of the next couple of weeks with other bets, will it still be vialble to place the whole ?110 on us to beat Pompey? That's not to say I wouldn't back you 100% if you decided to take on the challenge - as I've said in the past I don't have the funds to bet big chunks of dosh like yourself so I enjoy the rush vicariously!

I've taken the chance over this past week to open a few accounts with various online bookmakers through http://www.ecashback.co.uk who will give you cash in return for signing up with various companies. For example Paddy Power give you a ?20 free bet for a ?10 stake AND you get ?8.25 back through ecashback (Bill Hills is a fiver once you've staked a fiver and totesport give you ?10 cashback once you've signed up and placed a ?10 bet (plus a free ?10 stake). I probably won't use them again and hopefully I'll have a nice little stash after the weekend!

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goose, sergeyMS,

You are both absolutely correct. If we are going to start playing "sexy football" I am going to have to have a major rethink to my betting strategy.

It's going to be a lot more fun watching though !!

Hopefully once JT is back we should see a few more clean sheets though.

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