..the number of days rest that the players have between games.  At least this has been a big factor.

 

There was a comprehensive study published last year into how the amount of recovery time between games affects results ( link). It found teams playing with just two days to recover between games (like playing on Thursday then Sunday) are adversely affected.  Teams with three or more recovery days between games are not affected.  Key findings from the report include:

• Teams are 46% more likely to lose playing after just two recovery days than if they played after three or more recovery days;
• Teams are 75% more likely to concede a goal after 60 minutes if playing after just two recovery days;

We’ve played more games than anyone else in Europe, and we’ve likely played more games with just two recovery days than anyone else.  I believe our performances over the season closely follow what that report predicts.  Looking at the season so far (link):
 
Rested (three or more recovery days) our record is played 27, won 15, lost 5, drawn 7.
Tired (just two recovery days) our record is played 25, won 12, lost 7, drawn 6.
 
(‘Tired’ and ‘Rested’ are not real terms used in the report.  I’m just using those terms as a short hand way of referring to games with just two recovery days preceding them, and games with three or more recovery days preceding them)
 
The report says 'tired' teams are 46% more likely to lose than when they are rested.  Statistically we're doing about what the report predicts:  We've lost 51% more games 'tired' than 'rested' so far this season.  But when you have a closer look at our losses it is clear that we really are doing much worse when playing 'tired':  Tired we can lose to any crap team.  Rested we can still lose, but at least we lose to decent teams.

• Tired we’ve lost to West Ham, QPR, Newcastle, Man City, Corinthians, Juventus, Shakhtar.  Quite a few diabolical results there.
• Rested we’ve lost to Athletico, Man United, West Brom, Swansea and Steaua.  Swansea and West Brom are decent teams firmly established in the top half of the Premier League.  Only Steaua is a contender for a diabolical result.

For wins:

• ‘Tired’ we’ve not beaten a decent team.  We have not beaten anyone from the top half off the PL, or a decent European team.  We did beat Man United 5-4 in the cup, but they played a substantially weakened team.  The tired wins are Stoke, West Ham, Boro, Brentford, Sunderland, Southampton, Leeds, Nordsjaelland (twice), Wolves, and the weakened Man United team in the cup.

The report says a team when tired is 75% more likely to concede a goal in the last 30 minutes than when they play rested.  We absolutely see that in our results.  In five of our seven ‘tired’ losses we were level or leading at 60 minutes and then lost it in the last half hour as the opposition run over the top of us.  Only against Shakhtar and Juventus were we already behind on 60 minutes.  Compare that to our five ‘rested’ losses:  In four of those five games we were already behind on 60 minutes.  The only rested game where we were level or leading on 60 minutes and ended up losing was the 3-2 loss to United where we played the last half hour with nine players.  Whatever the reason was for those rested losses, it certainly wasn’t the opposition running over us at the end of a game.
 
We can win the FA Cup.  We can win the UEFA Cup.  We can comfortably wrap up third, or even second in the League.  But with the number of ‘tired’ games remaining due to the fixture pile up from now until the end of the season, if we try equally hard on all fronts (by playing our best players every game) we could easily fail on all fronts.  We could easily win nothing and find ourselves out of the Champions League next season.  We've currently got 11 games remaining – 7 ‘rested’ and 4 ‘tired’.  If we beat Kazan we’ll add another two games, and two of the ‘rested’ games will become ‘tired’.  Progressing in the cups we could easily end up with fixtures from now being 19 games in 45 days and virtually all of them will be ‘tired’ games.

Alas, this can be explained by not having a squad with enough depth and experience to cope with such a stern schedule. Also the season can be explained by the nonsense replacing of a club legend with a spanish fraud.

There are a number of factors why this season has gone tits up. Trying to pigeonhole it into one factor of whinging about fixture list is almost textbook Benitez. It's been a trainwreck but we have to carry on now, grin and bear it, if you will.

Edited March 29, 201313 yr by Joust

I've gotta agree with the FSW to the extent that with our fixture list, having the smallest squad in the EPL is a joke. And with the amount of pressure he is under you can't realistically expect him to rest big players for youth team players very often.

..the number of days rest that the players have between games.  At least this has been a big factor.

 

There was a comprehensive study published last year into how the amount of recovery time between games affects results ( link). It found teams playing with just two days to recover between games (like playing on Thursday then Sunday) are adversely affected.  Teams with three or more recovery days between games are not affected.  Key findings from the report include:

• Teams are 46% more likely to lose playing after just two recovery days than if they played after three or more recovery days;
• Teams are 75% more likely to concede a goal after 60 minutes if playing after just two recovery days;

We’ve played more games than anyone else in Europe, and we’ve likely played more games with just two recovery days than anyone else.  I believe our performances over the season closely follow what that report predicts.  Looking at the season so far (link):

 

Rested (three or more recovery days) our record is played 27, won 15, lost 5, drawn 7.

Tired (just two recovery days) our record is played 25, won 12, lost 7, drawn 6.

 

(‘Tired’ and ‘Rested’ are not real terms used in the report.  I’m just using those terms as a short hand way of referring to games with just two recovery days preceding them, and games with three or more recovery days preceding them)

 

The report says 'tired' teams are 46% more likely to lose than when they are rested.  Statistically we're doing about what the report predicts:  We've lost 51% more games 'tired' than 'rested' so far this season.  But when you have a closer look at our losses it is clear that we really are doing much worse when playing 'tired':  Tired we can lose to any crap team.  Rested we can still lose, but at least we lose to decent teams.

• Tired we’ve lost to West Ham, QPR, Newcastle, Man City, Corinthians, Juventus, Shakhtar.  Quite a few diabolical results there.
• Rested we’ve lost to Athletico, Man United, West Brom, Swansea and Steaua.  Swansea and West Brom are decent teams firmly established in the top half of the Premier League.  Only Steaua is a contender for a diabolical result.

For wins:

• ‘Tired’ we’ve not beaten a decent team.  We have not beaten anyone from the top half off the PL, or a decent European team.  We did beat Man United 5-4 in the cup, but they played a substantially weakened team.  The tired wins are Stoke, West Ham, Boro, Brentford, Sunderland, Southampton, Leeds, Nordsjaelland (twice), Wolves, and the weakened Man United team in the cup.

The report says a team when tired is 75% more likely to concede a goal in the last 30 minutes than when they play rested.  We absolutely see that in our results.  In five of our seven ‘tired’ losses we were level or leading at 60 minutes and then lost it in the last half hour as the opposition run over the top of us.  Only against Shakhtar and Juventus were we already behind on 60 minutes.  Compare that to our five ‘rested’ losses:  In four of those five games we were already behind on 60 minutes.  The only rested game where we were level or leading on 60 minutes and ended up losing was the 3-2 loss to United where we played the last half hour with nine players.  Whatever the reason was for those rested losses, it certainly wasn’t the opposition running over us at the end of a game.

 

We can win the FA Cup.  We can win the UEFA Cup.  We can comfortably wrap up third, or even second in the League.  But with the number of ‘tired’ games remaining due to the fixture pile up from now until the end of the season, if we try equally hard on all fronts (by playing our best players every game) we could easily fail on all fronts.  We could easily win nothing and find ourselves out of the Champions League next season.  We've currently got 11 games remaining – 7 ‘rested’ and 4 ‘tired’.  If we beat Kazan we’ll add another two games, and two of the ‘rested’ games will become ‘tired’.  Progressing in the cups we could easily end up with fixtures from now being 19 games in 45 days and virtually all of them will be ‘tired’ games.

arent you the guy who last week recommended we play Benayoun & Marin instead of Hazard & Mata against West Ham?

The reason we have such a big fixture list is because we have been involved in every competition, that can only be a good thing. The one thing you want when competing in everything is to have a big enough squad, for some stupid reason ( i blame the board ) we don't have that and that is why we are struggling now.

 

I can see alot of players leaving in the summer. Ferreira, Hilario, Essien, Malouda, Benayoun, Marin and Torres are just a few i think won't be around next season, that will make our squad even lighter. It's fine bringing in players like the Hazard's and the Oscar's but we will need to replace those players that are going out as well. A return of a few loan players will help but we will need to bring in 2 or 3 squad players as well, if we don't then we will have the same problem next season that we are having now.

The difference was Didier......If he had been here this season trust me Manx ankles would be bitten...

Alas, this can be explained by not having a squad with enough depth and experience to cope with such a stern schedule. Also the season can be explained by the nonsense replacing of a club legend with a spanish fraud.

There are a number of factors why this season has gone tits up. Trying to pigeonhole it into one factor of whinging about fixture list is almost textbook Benitez. It's been a trainwreck but we have to carry on now, grin and bear it, if you will.

Of course this is just one factor affecting our season.  But we don't need to just grin and bear it.  We need to understand it, and make decisions and prioritise accordingly.

 

We need to understand that we are much more likely to lose against United if we play our best players play against Southampton.  We can make that risk go away if we play a weakened 11 against Southampton, but then we're more at risk of losing that game.   Those are the risks we need to balance.  Rather than just grin and bear it and accept some random crap results we need to plan and prioritise.

Of course this is just one factor affecting our season.  But we don't need to just grin and bear it.  We need to understand it, and make decisions and prioritise accordingly.

 

We need to understand that we are much more likely to lose against United if we play our best players play against Southampton.  We can make that risk go away if we play a weakened 11 against Southampton, but then we're more at risk of losing that game.   Those are the risks we need to balance.  Rather than just grin and bear it and accept some random crap results we need to plan and prioritise.

Rafael Benitez, tactical behemoth, majestic fraud, is our manager for the rest of the season, which throws the majority of prosperity at the club out the window until he's gone. I'm afraid with such a pillock at the managerial helm, there's a lot of things we have to grin and bear for the next couple of months mate.