Since I had nothing better to do after work today I looked up some player stats from recent years and made some calculations. I did this to try to gauge player performance this season compared with previous ones. I thought it might be interesting see whether my perceptions, from watching Chelsea play and reading the views on countless forums, would match the stats. I’m a firm believer that a solid defence is the foundation you need to get through the tough “moments†on the way to a league title. In his first season Ancelotti brought us more goals than I could wish for but in a way the amount of goals masked our defensive frailties. (The stats below are for the Premier League only)
Attacking efficiency:
The table below shows goals + assists for every 90 minutes played for a few selected players. The 2006-2008 stats for Anelka are mainly from his time with Bolton.
........... 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 Average
Drogba ... 0,87 ..... 1,36 .... 0,52 .... 0,83 ..... 0,73 .... 0,90
Lampard . 0,62 ..... 1,09 .... 0,61 .... 0,92 ..... 0,64 .... 0,78
Malouda .. 0,58 ..... 0,82 .... 0,58 .... 0,19 ................. 0,58
Anelka .... 0,46 ..... 0,67 .... 0,74 .... 0,66 ..... 0,57 .... 0,62
Kalou ...... 0,86 ..... 0,85 .... 0,66 .... 0,76 ..... 0,56 .... 0,72
Essien ..... 0,16 ..... 0,23 .... 0,12 .... 0,43 ..... 0,15 .... 0,22
It’s quite clear that Drogba’s last two seasons have been sensational but wonder how long that will last with him aging.
Despite his injuries this season you can always rely on Lampard to give you goals. He may be slowing down with age and doesn’t seem to cover as much ground anymore, but his footballing brain is the thing that makes him so good (the timing of runs and finishing). His passing has been a bit off of late; this applies to many other players as well. In three of the last five seasons he has played over 3200 minutes which is about 1200 more than in the 2010/11 season. If he had been fit for those 1200 minutes one could expect him to provide at least 8 goals. Could this have be the difference between coming 2nd or 1st in the league?
When anybody mentions the Bison I probably start thinking of the powerhouse from the 07/08 season (when Lampard only played around 1900 minutes). But this season he reminded me more of a tame dairy cow.
I am of the opinion that Chelsea should sell Anelka and keep Kalou. The stats show that Anelka’s productivity has been very poor while Kalou is coming into his prime. Kalou’s offensive production is second only to Drogba. For those of you that want to get rid of Kalou: would you rather have him coming off the bench or Bendtner/Owen? I think it’s been obvious for a long time that we’ve needed a right winger/forward to create some width instead of using Anelka out of position. As our main striker option Anelka has been decent; under Scolari and in the CL while Drogba was banned. Someone like Sanchez/Adam Johnson would probably do a better job on the right.
I’m on the fence when it comes to Malouda. The stats seem to indicate that he’s been solid but watching him this past season has been a bit of a rollercoaster; one week I think he’s brilliant the next I’m complaining he’s too slow and looks like he’s bulked up a bit too much. I know that many fans are of the opinion that he is too selfish and should stop congesting the middle. Perhaps solving the RW problem might free up some space for Malouda.
Defence:
Below is a table showing goals conceded for every 90 minutes played.
............. 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 Average
A.Cole ...... 0,85 .... 0,71 .... 0,73 .... 0,82 .... 0,73 .... 0,78
Terry ........ 0,82 .... 0,83 .... 0,61 .... 0,62 .... 0,52 .... 0,69
Alex ......... 0,73 ..... 0,71 .... 0,46 .... 0,65 .... ..... ..... 0,62
Ivanovic .... 0,86 .... 0,80 .... 0,74 .... .... ........ .... ..... 0,82
Ferreira ..... 1,21 .... 0,66 .... 0,00 .... 0,98 .... 0,63 ..... 0,82
Bosingwa ... 0,78 .... 0,98 .... 0,59 .... .... .... .... .... .... 0,69
Zhirkov ..... 0,74 .... 1,13 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 0,98
Luiz .......... 0,76 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ..... 0,76
Cech ......... 0,87 .... 0,77 .... 0,69 .... 0,66 .... 0,47 ..... 0,72
It is quite evident that Ferreira was a liability last season, especially playing CB, and mainly played during the bad slump when there were few other options. Ivanovic’s defensive record seems to have taken a beeting during that period. To me the upward trend in goals conceded in recent seasons evident in Cech’s stats is worrying. This is something I believe a new manager needs to focus on. See also Terry’s stats from the last two season compared to the previous (approx 0,2 goal/game worse off with Ancelotti). According to the stats Alex has been solid as a rock.
Perhaps a surprising thing is that the stats show Bosingwa, contrary to his reputation, sharing the second best defensive record with Terry. Though I believe Ashley Cole to be a better defender than Bossman the stats seem to indicate the opposite. The stats could easily skewed perhaps because Bosingwa was mostly playing against the weaker teams in the league with Ivanovic stepping in against the big sides. But is this just me being biased?
Mikel vs Essien (vs Ramires):
In the last five seasons on average my stats give that:
Player/ goals+assist per game / goals conceded per game
Essien/ 0.22 / 0.78
Mikel/ 0.07 / 0.72
(Ramires/ 0.09 / 0.84 )
Comparing Ramires to the other two is not very fair since it’s his first season as well as fact that our defence wasn’t very strong under Ancelotti.
From these stats our best defence might be:
Bosingwa – Alex – Terry – A.Cole/Luiz
with Mikel protecting the back four. The worst:
Ferreira – Benayoun – Ivanovic – Zhirkov
Though Yuri hasn’t been playing much at left back.