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I'm not really a betting person - but the thing that strikes me there is that it only shows the odds for a player to go to one team - for instance Luke Shaw is 2/1 to go to Man U but couldn't he also be say 6/1 to come to us?  Or am I being stupid?  I probably am.  And aren't the odds just how the betting's going - so just what punters think?  But still quite interesting to see how accurate this is at the end of the window - I suspect not very - but fun in silly season to speculate!

I'm not really a betting person - but the thing that strikes me there is that it only shows the odds for a player to go to one team - for instance Luke Shaw is 2/1 to go to Man U but couldn't he also be say 6/1 to come to us?  Or am I being stupid?  I probably am.  And aren't the odds just how the betting's going - so just what punters think?  But still quite interesting to see how accurate this is at the end of the window - I suspect not very - but fun in silly season to speculate!

 

 

You are NOT being stupid!  Never EVER consider that a possibility!  The chart is simplistic in the extreme!  It is a sign of your great perspicacity that you instantly detected the flaw.

 

   

Thanks for the vote of confidence Moi!  Betting odds are one of those things I struggle with - 2/1 sounds so much more likely to happen to me than 33% chance!  But I know it must be the same!

Odds are based on what punters think will happen, which is obviously driven by what's in the media. I remember seeing Falcao at 1/33 to sign to Chelsea in the January 2012/2013 transfer window. I suppose its quite interesting to look at how the rumour mill is turning for other teams but for me personally, as a Chelsea fan, this is kind of useless information. 

I'm not really a betting person - but the thing that strikes me there is that it only shows the odds for a player to go to one team - for instance Luke Shaw is 2/1 to go to Man U but couldn't he also be say 6/1 to come to us?  Or am I being stupid?  I probably am.  And aren't the odds just how the betting's going - so just what punters think?  But still quite interesting to see how accurate this is at the end of the window - I suspect not very - but fun in silly season to speculate!

 

 

And the targets dont even seem to be the most likely destinations, in many cases.

 

For example, Aguero, who has been rumored many times to want to play for Real Madrid, is listed at an 8% chance of going to Barcelona. I dont think i've ever heard of that or the Wiltshire to Man Utd rumor in my life.

Wilshere to Utd i'm surprised someone even thinks it might happen smh

I'm not really a betting person - but the thing that strikes me there is that it only shows the odds for a player to go to one team - for instance Luke Shaw is 2/1 to go to Man U but couldn't he also be say 6/1 to come to us?  Or am I being stupid?  I probably am.  And aren't the odds just how the betting's going - so just what punters think?  But still quite interesting to see how accurate this is at the end of the window - I suspect not very - but fun in silly season to speculate!

 

You are exactly correct.  There are other sites that list all the different odds of a player going to each team. Below is an example of Wayne Rooney odds to sign with different teams.  The odds are driven strickly by where bets have already been placed.  Example: Cavani to Chelsea starts at 8 to 1.  Betters think that is a profitable bet with a good chance of happening so lots of bets are placed saying Cavani to Chelsea.  As more a more bets are placed, the odds change from 8 to 1 then 4 to1 then 2 to1 and so on.  At some point the betting house decides they don't want anymore bets and they move to a bet that no one wants to place such as 1 to 33. Hope that helps.

 

Wayne Rooney to sign for before 1st September 2013

Sign For Before 1st September Loan deals do count, if player does not move clubs all bets are settled as losers Chelsea 6/4 Arsenal 4/1 PSG 4/1 Bayern Munich 5/1 Real Madrid 25/1 AS Monaco 33/1 Borussia Dortmund 40/1 Manchester City 40/1 Barcelona 50/1 Everton 66/1 Juventus 66/1 Tottenham 80/1 AC Milan 100/1 Anzhi Makhachkala 100/1 Galatasaray 100/1 Inter Milan 100/1 Newcastle 100/1 Liverpool 150/1

Here are the Cavani odds for a bunch of teams:

 

Edinson Cavani to sign for before 1st September 2013 Transfer Specials | Saturday 31st August 2013 | 23:00

Specials

Sign For Before 1st September Loan deals do count, if player does not move clubs all bets are settled as losers Chelsea 4/11 Manchester City 7/2 Real Madrid 4/1 Bayern Munich 33/1 PSG 33/1 Arsenal 40/1 Juventus 40/1 AC Milan 50/1 Atletico Madrid 50/1 Barcelona 50/1 Inter Milan 50/1 Manchester Utd 50/1 Anzhi Makhachkala 80/1 Liverpool 80/1 Tottenham 80/1 Zenit St. Petersburg 80/1

 

 

You are exactly correct.  There are other sites that list all the different odds of a player going to each team. Below is an example of Wayne Rooney odds to sign with different teams.  The odds are driven strickly by where bets have already been placed.  Example: Cavani to Chelsea starts at 8 to 1.  Betters think that is a profitable bet with a good chance of happening so lots of bets are placed saying Cavani to Chelsea.  As more a more bets are placed, the odds change from 8 to 1 then 4 to1 then 2 to1 and so on.  At some point the betting house decides they don't want anymore bets and they move to a bet that no one wants to place such as 1 to 33. Hope that helps.

 

Wayne Rooney to sign for before 1st September 2013

Sign For Before 1st September Loan deals do count, if player does not move clubs all bets are settled as losers Chelsea 6/4 Arsenal 4/1 PSG 4/1 Bayern Munich 5/1 Real Madrid 25/1 AS Monaco 33/1 Borussia Dortmund 40/1 Manchester City 40/1 Barcelona 50/1 Everton 66/1 Juventus 66/1 Tottenham 80/1 AC Milan 100/1 Anzhi Makhachkala 100/1 Galatasaray 100/1 Inter Milan 100/1 Newcastle 100/1 Liverpool 150/1

 

Thanks, that's exactly how I thought it worked - but people seem to get their knickers in such a twist by the betting odds as though it's based on inside information.

Thanks, that's exactly how I thought it worked - but people seem to get their knickers in such a twist by the betting odds as though it's based on inside information.

Oh but it is, inside their heads.