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dustbin719

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  1. Sh*t how did you know? I’ve also got a collection of power rangers figurines in my mother’s basement
  2. Sarri-Out Glasses on. I've made my statement about that, so I'm sticking to it. The above tells me that we're taking a high volume of shots (2nd in PL), but the overall quality of our chances are low. We can work the ball right up to the opponent penalty area, but our penetration to get those easy six yard tap in goals is really bad (14th in PL). This confirms my own eye test in recent games, In the beginning of the season, Sarri baited teams to press us high, which then stretches them out introducing spaces between the lines for us to move the ball quickly through. Now teams don't press us that high, or don't press us at all, preferring to focus on retreating quickly once they lose the ball. Once we miss that small, small window to counter attack, we have no way of beating 2 low blocks. Teams started to wise up right around the turn of the new year. We drew Southampton 0-0, then lost to Spurs 1-0 right after Jan 1st. Beat Newcastle 2-1, then lost to Arsenal 2-0. This shows in our xG being terrible since Jan 1st. Sarri hasn't been able to get us out of this predicament. Even after potentially finding a solution by playing a bit more conservatively, he reverts back to Plan A for Wolves and Everton. Against Wolves, we aboslutely peppered them with shots. By xG alone, we "won" 1.05 vs 0.61. However, after looking closely, none of our shots had an xG above 0.15. Wolves' big chance was rated at 0.58. I understand that the PL website has us missing the 4th most "Big Chances" in the league. This would point to our poor finishing. However, I'd be interested to see how many Big Chances we've generated since Jan 1st. I don't have that info so hard to make a definitive comment on that. I have my stats in a table where you can sort by different categories. If anyone is interested, I can try to share it in a google docs here.
  3. SATISTICS!! (Grooaaaannnn) Ok, ok, hear me out. After some of our discussions in the "Sarri - In/Out" thread regarding statistics, i decided to take a closer look to see what I could find. Statistics in my view can help to illustrate a picture. Yes, they can be manipulated (which I might be doing in this post!), but I will attempt to be as objective as possible. I will just layout the stats and let you all draw your own conclusions. If you don't trust stats at all, no worries either. Just consider this the ramblings of a mad man with way too much time on his hands. For a few stats below, I'm using a stat called xG (Expected Goals) which I believe @Argo brought up. It's a fairly new type of stat which I find useful to describe the quality of a scoring chance. Basically it's a % probability of a chance going into the goal, based on thousands of previous chances from the same spot in which the chance occurred. Things that are taken into account include position of chance, type of pass that led to chance, how many and how close defenders are to the chance, was there defensive pressure on the chance, which foot the chance is taken with etc. etc. It does not take into account the player taking the chance, which has obvious issues, but also isolates the chance itself which can be useful. We've all heard the phrase "He really should've put that in the back of the net". xG attempts to put a number rating on that chance. A penalty using this method is rated around 0.77 or so, which means penalties have historically had a 77% chance of going in. Hazard's goal against Wolves is rated at 0.02, which means it had a 2% chance of going in. For more information of pros and cons to xG, please see this post on Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/9a7dz3/xg_what_is_expected_goals/ xG in total over a period of time for a team: The higher the number, the more chances you create (not necessarily high quality, but the highest totals are generally a combination of high volume and high quality). The lower the number, the less chances you create. So after researching and plugging in of numbers, here are some rankings I found: non-xG stats Goals minus Penalties: 6th in the PL (45). Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Man Utd ahead of us. Watford, Everton, WestHam directly below us. Total Shots minus Penalties Awarded: 2nd in the PL (471). Man City 1st. Liverpool, Leicester and Man U right below us. Out of the box shots: 1st in the PL (181). Leceister, Fulham, Southampton directly below us. Man City and Liverpool 5th and 6th respectively. Penalty Area Shots, minus Penalties awarded, minus 6 yard box shots: 2nd in the PL (267). Man City 1st. Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham behind us. 6 yard box shots: 14th in the PL (23). Wolves, Palace, Southampton, Brighton right above us. Everton, Bournemout and Fulham right below. Goals per Shot (minus penalties): 12th in the PL (0.096) West Ham, Bournemouth, Brighton right above us. Wolves, Leicester, Newcastle right below. Stats taken from www.whoscored.com xG stats (non-penalty) xG: 6th in the PL (44.71) xG per Shot Basically average chance quality per shot: 13th in the PL (0.095) West Ham, Everton, Cardiff right above us. Brighton, Fulham, Leicester, Southampton right below us. xG from Aug 11th to Dec 31st: 3rd in PL (33.52) xG from Jan 1st to Now: 13th in PL (11.18) I can't find stats for shots taken over half a season. If I did, I would've looked at xG/Shot for first half and second half of season too. If anyone can find them, let me know. Stats taken from www.understat.com Make of the above what you will. Remember this is only the attacking phase. I'll post my thoughts below Caveat: I feel that there are certain flaws with the xG system, because Aguero's sitter that he missed at our backpost was rated 0.45 somehow, and Babel's goal against Liverpool was a 0.7 when it should've been like a 0.95. However, it just means that this model will underrate all non-penalty chances as a whole. Also, as long as a player doesn't take a shot, xG is not counted. So someone could be 1cm away from goal, but decides to kneel down and nod the ball in. Instead, he gets tackled before he can make the shot. That doesn't count into xG.
  4. We have 8 games left. Bookies put us at a 33% of making the top 4. For argument's sake, let's say starting CHO lowers those chances to 25% (I think it would be around the same, but let's go along with Sarri's thinking) Even if we sacrifice say 10% of our top 4 chances, I would give CHO a run of Premier League games NOW. Start him in 6-7 of our remaining 8. Start him in at least 1 of the Liverpool/Man U games. Worst case, he has a mediocre run, but at least we show him that we are committed to playing him next year. Give him the belief that his hard work throughout the season has paid off. Might just be enough to get him to sign that extension. Harry Kane in 2013/14. Was coming off a very mediocre loan at Leciester in 2012/2013. 3rd choice striker behind Soldado (26mill new signing) and Adebayor the whole season. Spurs had an ok season and ended up in 6th. Kane gets a run of 5 starts in their last 6 PL games. Scores 3 in 3. Makes a breakthrough and the rest is history.
  5. Completely agree. With the transfer ban, we need to be focusing on building for 2020 and beyond. I think it would be a miracle to make Top 4 next season. Giving minutes to ageing and/or underperforming players like Luiz, Willian, Pedro and Alonso (if in a back 4), is just taking away precious developmental opportunities from players that are much younger, hungrier, and not that far off ability wise. Dare I say it, Azpi could find himself in that category too if he keeps up his current form. If we genuinely test our youngsters next season and end up finishing 10th or 11th, I would be 100% be ok with it. In fact, I would be really encouraged by a 10th place finish if we could properly bed in Christensen, CHO, RLC, while also confirming that Ampadu, Tammy, James and Mount belong in the squad with potential to improve. The doubters here can hold me to that. We are at a crossroads and we need to be thinking about the future now.
  6. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-6830279/The-future-lively-Giroud-casts-doubt-Chelsea-future.html https://www.rtl.fr/sport/football/olivier-giroud-sur-rtl-je-pourrais-finir-ma-carriere-en-france-7797246855 The Mail reporting on an interview GIroud gave to French media. I'm assuming the Mail will pick and choose their words and translations, but this is what Giroud supposedly said: If true, just points to some horrible man management on Sarri's part. I'm sure that Giroud is not the only player to feel this way (most importantly, Christensen and CHO) Also, with the transfer ban, we actually might want to keep Giroud for another season. Unless the club plans to start next season with Morata, Batshuayi and Tammy?
  7. I think that's one of my main gripes about Sarri. We just don't seem prepared when it comes to the little details. Nor are we prepared to react to different situations. Quite surprising given reports about him (in Italy) using drone videos in practice, different throw in routines (according to Chalobah), 33 deadball situations etc. Perhaps there really isn't enough time in between games, and all or practice time is being spent on getting the "basics" of Sarriball right Unfortunately, I'm just not seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
  8. For the record as of today Europa League: 413min against the likes of BATE, Vidi, PAOK and Dynamo FA Cup: 180min against Nottm Forest and Sheff Wed League Cup: 120min against Spurs and Man Coty PL: 119min. Longest 2 appearances were 42’ vs Watford and 29’ vs Wolves. Everything else was 16’(vs Everton) or below Total Appearances: 18 Minutes against PL level opposition (the stat that matters in my book): 119+120= 239min Even if you count Dynamo (lol), it’s 341min Beating a dead horse by now, but that’s nowhere near enough. By contrast, Rashford in his 2015/2016 season (I think he was 18 then), had 861 PL min. On top of that, he had a Europa league start against Liverpool, and FA cup starts against West Ham, Everton and Crystal Palace. That’s 1000+ min of PL level competition
  9. Didn’t Sarri in effect say that though? I mean @Barry Bridges is obviously exaggerating to make a point, but didn’t Sarri basically mean that he should be happy with his Europa league minutes and 100+ PL minutes because no other 18 yr old is making that many “appearances”?
  10. Another thing is that if Sarri really insists on playing with Luiz + Alonso + Hazard on our Left side, at least have the sense to move Kante to LCM and have him provide cover. If there's anyone who could do that job, it's Kante. Instead, he's out by our RW putting crosses in.
  11. Unfortunately, it's Sarri out for me at this point. I've been on the fence for a while, and really wanted to wait till the end of the season to make a definitive call. I really, really hate the managerial merry go round, BUT if we do stick with someone, he has to show that he deserves it. Based on the following 3 issues, I don't believe Sarri to be the right man, and I don't think he will change for as long as he is in charge: 1.) He cares more about his system working than winning. All the negatives about him in this thread basically point to this. Square pegs in round holes. Sticking to his favorites no matter their form or situation. Being unable to adjust his tactics when he's clearly been found out by the league. He is banging his head against a wall at this point, and I really don't see him stopping. Nor do I see the wall breaking. He adjusted when pushed to the very brink (Man City, Spurs), but has reverted back to his plan A since then. 2.) Lack of faith in youth. Using age as a reason for not playing CHO more is just ridiculous. And I think the same can be said for Ampadu, RLC and even Christensen (270 PL min) and Emerson (300 PL min). All of them have seen their first team counterpart play poorly. All have hardly gotten a sniff at PL minutes. 3.) He cannot motivate this team to go out and get a result. Perhaps not many managers can, but I suspect he's well below average in this regard. We had 2 "finals" against Wolves and Everton, and we got 2 damp squibs. This team does not look well prepared when it comes to the details. I don't know what it is, but the lack of set piece goals. Azpi's awkward penalty coin flip indecision in the final. No in game situational changes (if we go 2 goals up, this is what we need to do. If we go 1 goal down, don't panic, this is what we need to do) Just these little things. I just get the feeling Sarri does not prepare the squad well enough from situation to situation, and hence, we easily lose spirit when faced with adversity. There is no belief in him from the squad. The transfer ban is coming up, and we may very well lose our best creative player. We might even lose his heir apparent. Sarri is not going to get a window to bring in his type of players. It's looking like our squad will remain largely the same, with a bit more influx of youth. Can you stomach another season of Willian, Pedro, Barkley, Jorginho, Luiz and Alonso? One year older and playing the exact same broken tactics as we are now? Taking up valuable Premier League playing time for CHO (if he's still around), RLC, Ampadu, Christensen, James, Mount, Tammy etc. Because if history is any indication, that's who will be playing on opening day next year if Sarri is around. Let's face it. We are not a Top 4 team now. We will be even worse next year. We need to ensure that we at least have the ingredients for a Top 4 team by 2020/2021. Next year should be about giving our youth a healthy amount of minutes, sink or swim. Then, reevaluate the squad and spend wisely when the ban is lifted. I don't think Sarri is the right person for the rebuild ahead.
  12. I wonder what happened to Sarri's famed "Mister 33" dead-ball situation preparation. Supposedly he had one of his Italian sides practice 33 set plays. Right now, It's looking like "Mister 0" for the 0 minutes spent on dead-ball preparation, both offensively and defensively.
  13. A compilation of Luiz's mistakes this season. Just as highlights can make someone look better than they are, lowlights can make someone look worse. However, some of these are criminal. Alot of these mistakes are down to mental errors, and Sarri's tactics tend to put Luiz in these types of situations where he needs to make a split second decision. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that decision making is not his strong suit. With most of the season gone, the fact that these mistakes keep happening in the same way says as much about Luiz as it does about Sarri's tactics and insistence on sticking with David. Some of these are carbon copys of each other. https://streamable.com/m3r7b
  14. I said before I'd give him till the West Ham game, but I think at this point, he looks well off the pace. The transfer ban might save us in this regard

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