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Logical Analysis of Our Loss of Form


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I have been trying to come up with a logical explanation of our drop in form, and to compare it with last year's success...

My thought was to list all the possible causes, and then give a percentage weighting to each. Please add, correct, or delete as you see fit...

Possible Causes:

A) Players are less skillful than last year

B) Players are less fit

C) Other teams are better than last year

D) The tactics are not as good as last year

E) There is less of a team spirit than last year - something has disturbed the machine

F) The fans are not doing as much as last year

G) Injuries have been more significant than last year

H) Football is always a bit random - a couple of 50-50 balls going the other way, a couple of refereeing decisions being different, a couple of passes beating the defense, and maybe we'd would be top

I) ???

My estimate on weighting is...

E). 50%

G). 30%

H). 20%

What do you think?

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Our tactics is not sound and we are not changing our way of play to suit the opposition and may be too stubborn on our way of play ...

Injuries can cost us 1-2 matches or may be some indifferent results , but our loss of form is due to low confidence and stubborness in everything right from tactics to choice of players .

So to answer your question the way it was asked ,

D - 50 %

E - 20 %

G - 20 %

C - 10 %

:)

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Bad selection of paulo at centre back led to a loss against sunderland. From there, wev missed lampard massively, and ray leaving has obviously affected us. Our front three have been very poor, and wev looked slack in defence.

Wev been poor in the first half in the last few games, not motivated enough, or confident enough.

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One thing that should be mentioned is that last season wasn't all plain-sailing. There were times when we appeared vulnerable, albeit no where near the levels of this season. Even when we were winning games for fun earlier this season, there were still periods of the game where we looked poor- the 2nd halves vs MSK Zilina (away) and Blackpool come to mind.

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Then he should take a 'kin heavy pay cut.

Every other team in the league are playing the same number of games so that reason is crap.

I think something has gone on behind the scenes - might be the Wilkins thing, but we are not a happy camp at the moment. Too many players are not performing, the reason for that I do not know but the management have to change something. I'd start by dropping a few of them.

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Overplaying too many of our players. Drogba shouldn't have be playing 180+ minutes in less than a week especially at his age.

I agree. Drogba coming up to 33, Lamps 32 and still not fully match fit, both playing 3 games in less than a week?

Wenger was criticised for all the changes he made and yeah, he did take Wigan too lightly, but his team looked fresh yesterday. We have a squad - how about using it?

We have players like Sturridge, Kakuta and Josh who have hardly seem ANY game time. If I was McEachran, I would ask to go out on loan. How is sitting on the bench EVERY game and not getting on doing his development any good? And this when Lamps has been out, Benayoun, now Mikel and with Essien out of form. If he can't get a game now, when will he?

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I agree. Drogba coming up to 33, Lamps 32 and still not fully match fit, both playing 3 games in less than a week?

Wenger was criticised for all the changes he made and yeah, he did take Wigan too lightly, but his team looked fresh yesterday. We have a squad - how about using it?

We have players like Sturridge, Kakuta and Josh who have hardly seem ANY game time. If I was McEachran, I would ask to go out on loan. How is sitting on the bench EVERY game and not getting on doing his development any good? And this when Lamps has been out, Benayoun, now Mikel and with Essien out of form. If he can't get a game now, when will he?

This is very similar to what I was saying in the match thread:

Filling the bench with youngsters but not giving them time on the pitch helps nobody, and this is what he does, continually. A transitional period while introducing youngsters and allowing them to bed in and learn from their mistakes might be acceptable, a transitional period that sees these youngsters sit on the bench watching older players running down the clock on their careers is not.

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This is very similar to what I was saying in the match thread:

We're clearly singing from the same hymn sheet Hutch!!

Said on anothet thread, had to listen to whole of the game on the radio whilst driving back home from family and I just got angrier and angier. Had a few minutes of joy as we equalised then went 3-2 up only to nearly crash the car and have Stan f**king Collymore go mental as Villa equalised!

But every game is just so predictable. He tells everyone the starting 11 the day before and we all know what subs will appear before they happen.

We were talking the other day about no-one should be GUARANTEED a starting place, but Carlo deosn't appear to have the balls to leave out some of the bigger names.

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I can't help but think it's a bit of everything. Team spirit looks to have been damaged by Butch's departure, however as a few people have stated our form was a bit patchy before then. We got away with couple of results despite below par performances. Injuries have obviously been a key factor, but we're not the only club that suffers from them. Ok key players have been out, that shows a degree of over-reliance though. The squad appears more than capable if as good as everyone is fit. Just looking at the starting line ups in recent weeks tells me that it's more of a confidence issue than anything else. That starting Xl today should have been more than capable to beat a poor Villa side.

Luck is another thing that appears to have deserted us at the mo. You need that little bit of lady luck shining on you from time to time. At spuds it looked like the luck was turning the corner with Drogba's suspect handball and Gomes's goalkeeping and then PENALTY! We all know what happened then. Today the pen we were awarded was a little soft and on many occasions wouldn't have been given. Finally late goals looked to have turned it round. Ok we all know a match lasts for 90 minutes, but late goals always seem a bit lucky. They say 'what goes arounds comes around' and 'decisions even themselves out' Now we've had our own share over the years, right now we seem to getting it and then giving it straight back.

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Logical Analysis of Our Loss of Form?

One logical answer..

0,,15522880-EX,00.jpg

Team spirit and morale seemed to go with him!

Brilliant photo!

The good news for me is that my 51-year-old body doesn't look that much worse...

The bad news is that I was never one of the best English footballers ever!

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In my opinion it is a result of;

not having enough good players/small squad

many players out of form

injuries/illness

and a manager who refuses to change his approach and/or players when there is an opportunity to do so

We're not very good right now and are in a serious battle for 4th place. Anything higher would be an incredible achievment considering Arsenal, City and Utd have far superior squads (not teams but squads).

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The problem seems to boil down to four main areas.

1. Squad strength. We let too many players go in the summer without bringing in adequate replacements. I would take any or all of Man U, Arsenal, City and Spurs squads over ours any day of the week and I haven't said that for over 5 years. We had the strength in depth and we have sacrificed it to bring players through the academy who simply are not (and McCeachran excepted) good enough and I regret, never will be !!

2. Injuries. Again for 5 years I cannot remember a season where we were so badly hit. We lost one of our inadequate replacements, Benayoun, early on and subsequently have lost Lamps for several months, Alex, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Zhirkov, Essien, Drogba and now Mikel for lengthy periods of time. This is inexplicably linked to 1. above as without a decent squad it is simply impossible to overcome the injuries.

3. Opposition. There is no doubt in my mind that last year, our Double Season, the oppo were not up to much. We still only won the Prem by a point and Utd were absolute rubbish until the second half of the Season. This Season, Utd, Arsenal, City and Spurs all have better squads, are in better from, and play MUCH better football as a consequence and therefore look MUCH better than us. That's because they ARE !! No head in the sands here. We have been sh*te since October.

4. Owners interference. I don't blame him. If I had bought a £500 million toy, I too would want to play with it. But the Board must be strong enough to steer him in the right direction. A petty disagreement seems to have been enough to get rid of Wilkins which has caused the current unrest. Frankly there always seems to be something going on behind the scenes, Arnesen, Avram, Emanallo etc etc etc. It smacks of someone who clearly does not have a clue how to run a football Club, other than by throwing cash at it (City beware) It has to stop. The interference seems to be having the very negative effect of creating disharmony and lack of spriit in the camp. There are AGAIN too many rumours of squabbles between Malouda, Lamps, Drogba, Terry etc etc to be "smoke without fire" and this is indicative of a lack of Leadership from the very top.

We will need to put 1, 2 and 4 above right, BEFORE we have a cat in hells chance of dealing with 3.

CHELSEA I BEG OF YOU, DO NOT SELF DESTRUCT (again)

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Faltering Defensive Unit

The absence of Alex has diminished the quality of our defence.

Bosingwa is not the answer at right wing back. Ivan is the man for that job.

Bruma as yet is untried although he had a good game against Villa.

Ashley has been missing in some recent games.

Cech and Terry are the exceptions.

Slow Cumbersome Forward Line.

Anelka, Malouda and Kalou have been disappointing.

Drogba is showing his age.

All of these guys need to wake up.

Midfield Not Up To Par.

In the absence of Mikel we have no authentic holding player.

This was quite obvious in the games against Arsenal (when he was removed) and Villa.

Essien is not a holding midfielder and his form has deteriorated recently.

Ramires is experiencing some difficulty in adjusting to the Premier game.

Lamps is the only bright light in that group.

Need New Signings

It's time for Roman to loosen the purse strings and sign some new players in January.

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Our Midfield is poor/non-existent. Get Mceachran starting, replacing the floundering Ramires. Oh, and tell Essien that calamity two-footed tackles are not really acceptable.

Need a new defender. Without Alex we're f*****.

Drop Anelka and use Sturridge. At least he has the energy to run at defenders like Nico used to do aeons ago.

When fully fit, make more use of Kakuta. He just needs more game-time.

After all the above is implemented, we'll settle for fourth. Wolves won't be easy.

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Too much deadwood perhaps? We have very few players in their prime in terms of age and performance.

Drogba, at 33, can no longer be considered one of the best strikers in the world in will probably never score 25 goals in a season again.

Anelka is very much reliant on pace and I think we're starting to see him on the decline in that department this season.

As much as I love Ferriera, he just hasnt been Chelsea standard for a while.

Kalou is the same as Ferriera, but alot worse!

We should either let them go, or bring new players in and let these lads take a more backup role perhaps?

I dont meant to be drastic, I could very much be wrong. Just trying to think of a theory as to why this run of form is happening.

Edited by BlueDay
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We have a much weaker squad than previous seasons. Our midfield lost Ballack, Deco, Joe Cole and Belletti this summer and Ricardo Carvalho at centre half and they simpley haven't been replaced, the injury to Benayoun hasn't helped.

It pains me to say it but Spurs have a stronger squad than us, not starting 11, but a stronger squad.

If you look at our bench in recent games, we haven't got a player who can turn a game, the average age of our bench is about 20 years of age. And you cannot throw in kids when 3-0 down away to Arsenal and expect them to save the game and your season, it can have a damaging effect on such youngsters, they need to brought through gradually!!

We haven't got the ability to change the game from the bench, bring on a dangerous forward when chasing the game, or a reliable old-head when holding onto a lead, (Ballack/Belletti) the only change we have is taking off Paulo for Boswinga or vice-versa.

Some players are jaded due to a busy Christmas so a squad is needed. It's OK saying bring the kids in but it cannot be done in one huge overhaul.

Also we haven't got a player who can dribble with the ball and take players on, we have Kalou, but I'd like the player to have an end-product aswell. It all seems to be 1/2 touch, and mostly sideways passing recently. We have become very pedestrian in our play.

Due to the reasons above we have lost our air of invincibility, sides come up against us, see no threat from the bench, and just hammer away because they know we are not or cannot change things. Can you imagine any premier league manager looking at one of Carlo's changes thinking, 'F*ck me.....they're bringing Sturridge on - I'll need to re-organise my defence or put a player on him?' - I didn't think so.

What would you do for a Robben or a Duff right now?

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We have a much weaker squad than previous seasons. Our midfield lost Ballack, Deco, Joe Cole and Belletti this summer and Ricardo Carvalho at centre half and they simpley haven't been replaced, the injury to Benayoun hasn't helped.

It pains me to say it but Spurs have a stronger squad than us, not starting 11, but a stronger squad.

If you look at our bench in recent games, we haven't got a player who can turn a game, the average age of our bench is about 20 years of age. And you cannot throw in kids when 3-0 down away to Arsenal and expect them to save the game and your season, it can have a damaging effect on such youngsters, they need to brought through gradually!!

We haven't got the ability to change the game from the bench, bring on a dangerous forward when chasing the game, or a reliable old-head when holding onto a lead, (Ballack/Belletti) the only change we have is taking off Paulo for Boswinga or vice-versa.

Some players are jaded due to a busy Christmas so a squad is needed. It's OK saying bring the kids in but it cannot be done in one huge overhaul.

Also we haven't got a player who can dribble with the ball and take players on, we have Kalou, but I'd like the player to have an end-product aswell. It all seems to be 1/2 touch, and mostly sideways passing recently. We have become very pedestrian in our play.

Due to the reasons above we have lost our air of invincibility, sides come up against us, see no threat from the bench, and just hammer away because they know we are not or cannot change things. Can you imagine any premier league manager looking at one of Carlo's changes thinking, 'F*ck me.....they're bringing Sturridge on - I'll need to re-organise my defence or put a player on him?' - I didn't think so.

What would you do for a Robben or a Duff right now?

Bang on, 100%. I dont think I disagree with a word.

I think its clear too that this funk has hit us at a time when the remaining players (aka, everyone but Frank) have played 25+ games this season already, and may be approaching burnout. Who do we have to chop and change the team, to give certain people (Drogba, Malouda, Ash) a break?

Once more for posterity: no serious contending team, who hopes to make a decent run at four trophies over the course of 50-60 games, would ever start the season with 15 senior outfield players. Not when the much vaunted youth were barely blooded in at all last year. Its not as if we got their feet wet last year. Now they are the last thing standing between us and a season in tailspin. But that is precisely where we are at right now.

For all the directors of this and that at CFC right now, there seems to be nobody who possibly saw this coming. I can accept that this season is all but over as far as the domestic league goes, but it would be much easier to take if I felt like there was a change in the works. ANd for some reason, I just dont see one coming.

And also, the thing about wingers and creative players, who can take people on, is so true, and has been now for a season or two. I recall having Robben, Duff, Cole and SWP at one point. Now we have Malouda and Yuri, and both pretty much stick to playing inside or as part of the frontline.

Edited by TheWestwayWonder
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I'd love to see us bring back proper wingers. I agree with the last2 post i think we really struggle to stretch teams because the only player to wants to get to the byline is ash. Pace is something we've lacked for a while.

We lacked pace in the centre midfield last year which was shown in Europe, and although alex is a good centre half, we looked more solid when we had carvalho and earlier Gallas.

Whoever made the decision to go into this season with squad so thin in multiple areas has got this completely wrong. How many players really fit into our system now?

anelka, sturridge, zhirkov, kakuta, kalou and to a certain extent mikel don't play in there prefered position.

how many of our players would you be quite happy to see the back of? ferreira has to go, and I think it's the end of the line for anelka, zhirkov, and kalou. With the new foreign quota we should be freeing up places for quality players.

Why can so many people see players that we should be going for but the board pursue targets that aren't up to scratch. We've brought in squad players since 2007.

I could name 20 players all available over the 3 years the club could have and should have bought, and that's not with hindsight, we all saw these players coming.

Sorry to rant but roman needs to act now, or we will to stop targeting premiership and champions league sucess and be happy for top 4 finish.

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