Tony is a genius................. course we're not getting top 4!

7th or 8th at best I think

Tony Cascagrino has done analysis and thinks it's beyond us to get top 4.

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11668/10119045/chelsea-will-find-it-impossible-to-make-top-four-says-tony-cascarino

"If you take the last 18 games of last season, they got 41 points, which is a good return."

"The lowest points return to secure a fourth-placed Champions League place has been 67. To reach that, Chelsea would need another 44 points "

"Out of 54 points remaining,"

It is title winning form and we know this team is capable of it but we also know that it is very unlikely. I also haven't included Liecester in the calculations mainly as I still think they will drop off and will crumble under the increasing pressure and media coverage however they still would only need around 27-30 points in the next 18 games to be up there and that is very possible (1.5-1.7 points a game).

 

Edited January 6, 201610 yr by PedroMendez

Yeah same here. I think they drop off.

I wonder if we would be better not playing in Europa league next year.

What's the monetary value of playing in the CL, Europa and not playing in Europe at all?

When Man U missed out "That means the only real loss they will feel comes from Champions League TV revenue, prize money and perhaps the lost gate receipts from home matches they might have staged. Some of that may be mitigated by Europa League qualification and, possibly, built-in savings in player contracts. All that adds up to around £40-50m - only about 10% of their expected total revenue."

It is title winning form and we know this team is capable of it but we also know that it is very unlikely. I also haven't included Liecester in the calculations mainly as I still think they will drop off and will crumble under the increasing pressure and media coverage however they still would only need around 27-30 points in the next 18 games to be up there and that is very possible (1.5-1.7 points a game).

 

 

The good thing is that the table is very congested with teams losing points all the time. This suggests a low point total for the no4 spot...

The good thing is that the table is very congested with teams losing points all the time. This suggests a low point total for the no4 spot...

 

 

That's something I've felt for the majority of this season.  That, with the quality of the league being poorer this season, we'll be able to still challenge (albeit unrealistic) for a Top 4 spot if we could just put a solid run together.

 

It has also been a source of frustration because it wouldn't take much to actually challenge.

 

Realistically, I think if we make the Europa Spots from here, we'll be doing very well

Surely Spurs and United are favourites for top 4. Although remember what happened last time Spurs thought they'd secured top 4?!

Decided it was time to see an update

MU

Watford(a) tick 2-1 win, Leicester(a) tick 1-1, West ham(h) tick 0-0, Bournemouth(a) cross 1-2 loss 3 points down, Norwich (h) cross 1-2 loss 6 points down, Stoke(a) cross 0-2 loss 9 points down, Chelsea(h) tick 0-0, Swansea(h) cross win 2-1 7 points down, 

Pld 20 Pts 33 Also 7 points down on there targeted prediction 

Newcastle(a), Liverpool(a), Southampton (h), Stoke(h), Chelsea(a), Sunderland(a), Arsenal(h), Watford(h), West brom(a), Crystal Palace(h),Man city(a), Everton(h), Tottenham(a), Aston villa(h), West ham (a), Leicester(h), Norwich(a), Bournemouth(h).

13 wins, 2 draws, 3 loses  41 points +33= 74 points assuming no real slip ups and they find some form really don't expect it to be this high as can't see them winning all those games especially now with the added burden of the Europa league.

Tottenham

West ham(h) cross 4-1 win 2 points up, Chelsea(h) cross 0-0 draw 3 points up, West Brom (a) cross 1-1 draw 1 point up, Newcastle(h) cross 1-2 loss 2 points down, Southampton(a) cross 2-0 win on par, Norwich(h) tick 3-0 win, Watford(a) tick 2-1 win, Everton(a) tick 1-1 draw,

Tottenham are the only team that are on par with their results and this shows in the table Pld 20 Pts 36

Leicester(h), Sunderland(h), Crystal Palace(a), Norwich(h), Watford(h), Man city(a), Swansea(h), West ham(a), Arsenal(h), Aston Villa(a), Bournemouth(a), Liverpool(a), Man U (h), Stoke(a), West brom(h), Chelsea(a), Southampton(h), Newcastle(a)

11 wins, 4 draws, 3 loses   37 +36 = 73 points again assuming no real slip ups and no Europa league syndrome

Liverpool

Man City(a) cross 4-1 win 3 points up, Swansea(h) tick 1-0 win, Newcastle(a) cross 0-2 loss on par, West Brom (h) cross draw 2-2 2 points down, Watford(a) cross 0-3 loss 5 points down, Leicester(h) tick 1-0 win, Sunderland(a) tick 1-0 win, West ham (a) cross 0-2 loss 8 ponts down,

8 points down on what I predicted Pld 20 Pts 30

Arsenal(h), Man U(h), Norwich(a), Leiester(a), Sunderland(h), Aston Villa(a), Everton(h), Man City (h), Crystal Palace(a), Chelsea(h),Southampton(h), Tottenham(h), Stoke(h), Bournemouth(a), Newcastle(h), Swansea(a), Watford (h), West Brom(a)

11 wins, 5 draws, 2 loses   37+30=67 points again assuming no slip ups but with the Europa league syndrome and carling cup run legs might tire and as we have just seen hamstrings might pull also they haven't quite got to grips with Klopps methodology, so I don't expect this to be any where near as high. 

So again this all says to me that the 72 points total is overly high for this season with unexpected results popping up left right and centre and any team that can get 72 points will have done more than enough to qualify for the CL

However we aren't likely to get close to 72 points and around 65 points probably isn't going to be enough to cut it I'm not going to rule anything out particularly with how the season has gone but I suspect we will finish behind both Tottenham and Man U.

 

Well done mate.

 

If I'm being honest I don't even think we will get 60 points or Europa League next season.

I think I'd rather we didn't get into the Europa league next season, not that I'm devaluing any cup, I loved us being holders of the CL and the Europa at the same time in 2013 (albeit for a very short time).

 

But I do think a season just concentrating on domestic honours and bedding in our new Manager, whoever he might be, would do us good. The only problem I suppose would be attracting "top" players.

We're going to win the CL ladies and gentlemen. So we wont be in the Europa League next season until we finish 3rd in our CL group.

Edited January 7, 201610 yr by TheChelseaBlues

Since a thread has been created to discuss whether we can catch United I though this thread could do with a bump to see how the represented teams are getting on and whether our form has improved enough under guss for us to catch the teams in red.

HOME NORWICH CITY  tick 1-0 win on target 

AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR  cross 0-0 draw up 1 point 
HOME BOURNEMOUTH  cross 0-1 loss down 2 points 
AWAY LEICESTER CITY cross 1-2 loss down 5 points  
 
Jose Sacked 5 points below target  
 
HOME SUNDERLAND tick 3-1 win down 5 points 
HOME WATFORD cross 2-2 draw down 7 points 
AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED tick 0-0 draw still down 7 points 
AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE tick 3-0 win still 7 points down 
 
7 points down from target but what looks like an upturn in form and the opportunity to gain 5 points in the next 3 games 
Pl 20 Pts 23  
 
HOME WEST BROM  cross 2-2 draw, down by 2 more points 
HOME EVERTON tick 3-3 draw  
AWAY ARSENAL cross 1-0 win, up by 1 point 
AWAY WATFORD  cross 0-0 draw down 1 point 
HOME MANCHESTER UNITED cross 1-1 draw, down 3 points 
HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED tick 5-1 win  
AWAY SOUTHAMPTON cross 2-1 win, down 1 point 
 
So only 1 more point down on what was predicted for this period and not a single loss. 
 
Since Jose was sacked we have a record of 5 wins 6 draws 21 points in 11 games at an average of 1.91 per game 
Leaving us 11th in the table on 36 points 
If we were to carrying on at this average points per game we would finish on 57 points. 
 
Carrying on with Coco's predictions. 
AWAY NORWICH CITY, HOME STOKE CITY, AWAY LIVERPOOL, HOME WEST HAM UNITED, AWAY ASTON VILLA, AWAY SWANSEA, HOME MANCHESTER CITY, AWAY BOURNEMOUTH, HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR, AWAY SUNDERLAND, HOME LEICESTER CITY 

8 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss = possible 26pts to come 
Leaves us with a total of 62 pts 

MU; 

Watford(a) tick 2-1 win, Leicester(a) tick 1-1, West ham(h) tick 0-0, Bournemouth(a) cross 1-2 loss 3 points down,  
Jose Sacked, 
Norwich (h) cross 1-2 loss 6 points down, Stoke(a) cross 0-2 loss 9 points down, Chelsea(h) tick 0-0, Swansea(h) cross win 2-1 7 points down,  
 
Pld 20 Pts 33 Also 7 points down on their targeted prediction  
 
Newcastle(a) cross draw 2 points down, Liverpool(a) cross win 1 point up, Southampton (h) cross loss 2 points down, Stoke(h) tick win, Chelsea(a) cross draw 1 point down, Sunderland(a) cross loss 4 points down,  
 
Another 4 points lost on predicted results leaving them   
6th Pld 26 Pts 41 
Man U's record since Jose was sacked 3 wins 3 draws 4 losses, 12 points from 10 games 1.2 points per game. 
If they carry on at this rate until the end of the season they would finish on 55 points 
 
Carrying on with predictions;  
Arsenal(h), Watford(h), West Brom(a), Crystal Palace(h),Man City(a), Everton(h), Tottenham(a), Aston Villa(h), West Ham (a), Leicester(h), Norwich(a), Bournemouth(h). 
9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss  29 points +41= 70 points 
 
Admittedly these predictions are now extremely generous as they were made when Man U were in much better form and didn't have a squad sized injury list, and then when you factor in that they still are in the FA cup and Europa league it is very unlikely that the reach anywhere close to this.  
I think somewhere between 55 and 60 is a more realistic prediction 
 
 
Tottenham; have been by far the best team on this list and have far exceeded expectation.  

West ham(h) cross 4-1 win 2 points up, Chelsea(h) cross 0-0 draw 3 points up, West Brom (a) cross 1-1 draw 1 point up, Newcastle(h)cross 1-2 loss 2 points down,  
 
Jose Sacked 
 
Southampton(a) cross 2-0 win on par, Norwich(h) tick 3-0 win, Watford(a) tick 2-1 win, Everton(a) tick 1-1 draw, 
 
Tottenham are the only team that are on par with their results and this shows in the table Pld 20 Pts 36 
 
Leicester(h), cross loss 3 point down, Sunderland(h) tick win, Crystal Palace(a) cross win 1 point down, Norwich(h) tick win, Watford(h) tick win, Man city(a) cross win 2 points up,  

This leaves Tottenham 2 points up on prediction and safely out of reach from us. 
Since Jose's sacking they have managed 8 wins 1 draw 1 loss and average of 2.5 pts/game frankly ridiculous. and if this continued (very unlikely) they would finish on 81 points and would likely win the league   
 
On predictions; 
Swansea(h), West ham(a), Arsenal(h), Aston Villa(a), Bournemouth(a), Liverpool(a), Man U (h), Stoke(a), West brom(h), Chelsea(a), Southampton(h), Newcastle(a) 

7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses   24 +51 = 75 points  
Still a great total and with the way the season has gone that could well be close to title contention.    
 
Liverpool; 

Man City(a) cross 4-1 win 3 points up, Swansea(h) tick 1-0 win, Newcastle(a) cross 0-2 loss on par, West Brom (h) cross draw 2-2 2 points down,  
 
Jose Sacked 
 
Watford(a) cross 0-3 loss 5 points down, Leicester(h) tick 1-0 win, Sunderland(a) tick 1-0 win, West ham (a) cross 0-2 loss 8 ponts down, 
 
8 points down on what I predicted Pld 20 Pts 30 
 
Arsenal(h) cross 3-3 draw 1 point up, Man U(h) cross 1-0 loss par, Norwich(a) tick 5-4 win, Leiester(a) cross 2-0 loss 3 points down, Sunderland(h) cross 2-2 draw 5 points down, Aston Villa(a) tick 6-0 win,  
 
Another 5 points dropped leaving them  
9th Pld 26 Pts 38  
Since Jose's sacking 4 wins 3 draws 3 losses, 15 pts from 10 games at 1.5 pts/game, taking that form to the end of the season would lead to a total of 56 pts. 
 
From Prediction; 
Everton(h), Man City (h), Crystal Palace(a), Chelsea(h),Southampton(h), Tottenham(h), Stoke(h), Bournemouth(a), Newcastle(h), Swansea(a), Watford (h), West Brom(a) 

7 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss  25+38=63 points, Liverpool have some important players returning to fitness mainly Sturridge but also have the Europa league to contend with so I think somewhere between these 2 predictions is a fair guess.  

 

Taking these predictions to compare us against MU and Liverpool. 

 

Team 

Prediction 

Points average since Guus 

Chelsea 

62 

57 

Man U 

70 

55 

Liverpool 

63 

56 

I think we can safely say top 4 is miles out of reach but 5th/6th is more than reachable with both Man U and Liverpool there for the catching. Whether we have this as an ambition though is debatable with some saying that they wouldn't want to gain Europa league qualification through the league. Personally I would love us to keep going until the end of the season and think EL football would be very beneficial for the club, also beating Liverpool and Man U in the league after the start we had would salvage some pride back for the side.

 

Edited February 28, 201610 yr by PedroMendez

I don't get the thought about not getting into cup competition, if domestic campaign is such a concern then why don't just play the kids + reserves in that cup? It's better for them to have action rather than sitting on the bench..