72 Point target

[coco]

Iv'e done a little maths and worked out that over the last 5 seasons, fourth place has averaged out at 71.8 points.

 

2015

 

2014

 

2013

 

2012

 

2011

 

 

So here we are 12 games into the season and only 11 points, needing another possible 60.8 points for a chance of fourth place and champ league again next season.

 

Games to come:

 

 

HOME NORWICH CITY 
AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
HOME BOURNEMOUTH 
AWAY LEICESTER CITY
HOME SUNDERLAND
HOME WATFORD
AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED
AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE
HOME WEST BROM
HOME EVERTON
AWAY ARSENAL
AWAY WATFORD
HOME MANCHESTER UNITED
HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED
AWAY SOUTHAMPTON
AWAY NORWICH CITY
HOME STOKE CITY
AWAY LIVERPOOL
HOME WEST HAM UNITED
AWAY ASTON VILLA
HOME MANCHESTER CITY
AWAY BOURNEMOUTH
HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
AWAY SUNDERLAND
HOME LEICESTER CITY

 

18 wins = 54pts

3 draws = 3pts

3 defeats

 

= possible 57pts to come

 

That gives us a total of 68 points for the season. Arsenal got fourth place in 2011 with 68 points, so It isn't impossible.

 

All these figures mean nothing unless the team can turn it around, but It's not too late.

 

[Van Butsen]

I love your work and have been thinking all season "if we can just start turning it round now.. it's actually not impossible", and while I remain confident we will get back to winning ways, I'm no where near confident enough to start putting a big tick next to Leicester away

[lesblues]

Even using something as farce as the law of averages, its still a fail as 71.8 is the average. As you rightly pointed out, the team needs to get their sh*t together and turn it around or european football next season would be a pipe dream

[barak81]

Iv'e done a little maths and worked out that over the last 5 seasons, fourth place has averaged out at 71.8 points.

 

2015

Capture.JPG

 

2014

14ure.JPG

 

2013

13apture.JPG

 

2012

12ture.JPG

 

2011

11pture.JPG

 

 

So here we are 12 games into the season and only 11 points, needing another possible 60.8 points for a chance of fourth place and champ league again next season.

 

Games to come:

 

 

HOME NORWICH CITY 

AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

HOME BOURNEMOUTH 

AWAY LEICESTER CITY

HOME SUNDERLAND

HOME WATFORD

AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED

AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE

HOME WEST BROM

HOME EVERTON

AWAY ARSENAL

AWAY WATFORD

HOME MANCHESTER UNITED

HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED

AWAY SOUTHAMPTON

AWAY NORWICH CITY

HOME STOKE CITY

AWAY LIVERPOOL

HOME WEST HAM UNITED

AWAY ASTON VILLA

HOME MANCHESTER CITY

AWAY BOURNEMOUTH

HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

AWAY SUNDERLAND

HOME LEICESTER CITY

 

18 wins = 54pts

3 draws = 3pts

3 defeats

 

= possible 57pts to come

 

That gives us a total of 68 points for the season. Arsenal got fourth place in 2011 with 68 points, so It isn't impossible.

 

All these figures mean nothing unless the team can turn it around, but It's not too late.

 

 

Slow Day Coco :)

 

Thanks for doing the math. My view on it is that there is no dominant top 4, there is not even a dominant two right now, the points total for the league leaders is very low. So this could be an all time low points season. I certainly think top 4 is within reach but we need to turn it around and quickly. The objective for Jose should be to try and stable the ship and mount a mini recovery till January. Basically get us within striking range. 

 

Then come Jan the team reinforcements have to be added, but like on the 1st of Jan, none of this faffing about till the deadline... targets should be identified now! Chief among them is a striker 

[coco]

I love your work and have been thinking all season "if we can just start turning it round now.. it's actually not impossible", and while I remain confident we will get back to winning ways, I'm no where near confident enough to start putting a big tick next to Leicester away

 

Leicester away is usually favourable for us.

[coco]

Another factor, will our current CL campaign get in the way  ?

[Zeta]

If we don't start playing better pretty muych immediately, I'm struggling to see us picking up more than another 20 or so points.

[coco]

Slow Day Coco :)

 

Thanks for doing the math. My view on it is that there is no dominant top 4, there is not even a dominant two right now, the points total for the league leaders is very low. So this could be an all time low points season. I certainly think top 4 is within reach but we need to turn it around and quickly. The objective for Jose should be to try and stable the ship and mount a mini recovery till January. Basically get us within striking range. 

 

Then come Jan the team reinforcements have to be added, but like on the 1st of Jan, none of this faffing about till the deadline... targets should be identified now! Chief among them is a striker 

 

Pretty sure Citeh and le arse will take the top 2 spots comfortably by the end, after that 3rd and 4th it's a lottery, and we need ticket.

[coco]

If we don't start playing better pretty muych immediately, I'm struggling to see us picking up more than another 20 or so points.

 

That's the reason I posted this, we are just about at that point where if it does'nt change in the next 1-2 games, we are not getting top 4 this season.

[Guest Sindre]

Looking at that i realize we have a run of really tough away games coming up now. Tottenham, Leicester, ManUtd, Crystal Palace, Arsenal, and then Southampton and Liverpool quite soon after aswell.

 

On current form i can see us losing all those games. So we better regain some form quick or this season may turn really, really unpleasant.

[Beerqueen]

Iv'e done a little maths and worked out that over the last 5 seasons, fourth place has averaged out at 71.8 points.

 

2015

Capture.JPG

 

2014

14ure.JPG

 

2013

13apture.JPG

 

2012

12ture.JPG

 

2011

11pture.JPG

 

 

So here we are 12 games into the season and only 11 points, needing another possible 60.8 points for a chance of fourth place and champ league again next season.

 

Games to come:

 

 

HOME NORWICH CITY 

AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

HOME BOURNEMOUTH 

AWAY LEICESTER CITY

HOME SUNDERLAND

HOME WATFORD

AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED

AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE

HOME WEST BROM

HOME EVERTON

AWAY ARSENAL

AWAY WATFORD

HOME MANCHESTER UNITED

HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED

AWAY SOUTHAMPTON

AWAY NORWICH CITY

HOME STOKE CITY

AWAY LIVERPOOL

HOME WEST HAM UNITED

AWAY ASTON VILLA

HOME MANCHESTER CITY

AWAY BOURNEMOUTH

HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

AWAY SUNDERLAND

HOME LEICESTER CITY

 

18 wins = 54pts

3 draws = 3pts

3 defeats

 

= possible 57pts to come

 

That gives us a total of 68 points for the season. Arsenal got fourth place in 2011 with 68 points, so It isn't impossible.

 

All these figures mean nothing unless the team can turn it around, but It's not too late.

Assuming the black text = draws, there are 4 there so that's another point!

[coco]

Assuming the black text = draws, there are 4 there so that's another point!

 

Oooh yes good spot.

[coco]

Most bookies are offering 3/1 to 4/1 on us making the top 4.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

[coco]

Our games against Liverpool and spuds will be 6 pointers in the battle for fourth spot. Shame we have already lost one of those games.

[mclovin83]

Good exercise and it pretty much reinforces my belief that top 4 is not unrealistic if we can produce a good run of form. The problem is that we look a long way from producing even a respectable run of form, let alone an impressive one.

 

Looking at our imminent game I think we need to win every game up until United away to give us a realistic chance. That's 6 wins on the bounce with only Spurs away and arguably Leicester away (on their current form) that should trouble us on paper. Nobody needs to point out the obvious point that we look capable of losing to anyone at the moment.

 

Everything would look a lot more rosy if we can do that, obviously, and I do think we will need to pull some big wins out the bag, such as Spurs away.

[ForeverCarefree]

Current target is 40 points. 

 

Then we can build from there. 

[Zola]

Good thread!

Pin it?

[Celery1989]

It's quite sad to think that they even after West Ham top 4 was do-able. But having given away two games in the way that we did against Liverpool and Stoke, top 4 is now very unlikely I have to say.

 

I wonder whether it might be better to do a United than finishing in the Europa League spots - Finish 8th or something and thereby focus entirely on the League to ensure CL qualification. I just wonder whether we have as much clout as they did in attracting top level players without CL Football.

Edited November 11, 2015 by Celery1989

[Zeta]

If you offered me a top 10 finish right now, I'd take it.

 

And maybe if we're lucky a run in the FA cup.

[romfordblue]

Assuming the black text = draws, there are 4 there so that's another point!

 

Iv'e done a little maths and worked out that over the last 5 seasons, fourth place has averaged out at 71.8 points.

 

2015

Capture.JPG

 

2014

14ure.JPG

 

2013

13apture.JPG

 

2012

12ture.JPG

 

2011

11pture.JPG

 

 

So here we are 12 games into the season and only 11 points, needing another possible 60.8 points for a chance of fourth place and champ league again next season.

 

Games to come:

 

 

HOME NORWICH CITY 

AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

HOME BOURNEMOUTH 

AWAY LEICESTER CITY

HOME SUNDERLAND

HOME WATFORD

AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED

AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE

HOME WEST BROM

HOME EVERTON

AWAY ARSENAL

AWAY WATFORD

HOME MANCHESTER UNITED

HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED

AWAY SOUTHAMPTON

AWAY NORWICH CITY

HOME STOKE CITY

AWAY LIVERPOOL

HOME WEST HAM UNITED

AWAY ASTON VILLA

HOME MANCHESTER CITY

AWAY BOURNEMOUTH

HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

AWAY SUNDERLAND

HOME LEICESTER CITY

 

18 wins = 54pts

3 draws = 3pts

3 defeats

 

= possible 57pts to come

 

That gives us a total of 68 points for the season. Arsenal got fourth place in 2011 with 68 points, so It isn't impossible.

 

All these figures mean nothing unless the team can turn it around, but It's not too late.

 

Iv'e done a little maths and worked out that over the last 5 seasons, fourth place has averaged out at 71.8 points.

 

2015

Capture.JPG

 

2014

14ure.JPG

 

2013

13apture.JPG

 

2012

12ture.JPG

 

2011

11pture.JPG

 

 

So here we are 12 games into the season and only 11 points, needing another possible 60.8 points for a chance of fourth place and champ league again next season.

 

Games to come:

 

 

HOME NORWICH CITY 

AWAY TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

HOME BOURNEMOUTH 

AWAY LEICESTER CITY

HOME SUNDERLAND

HOME WATFORD

AWAY MANCHESTER UNITED

AWAY CRYSTAL PALACE

HOME WEST BROM

HOME EVERTON

AWAY ARSENAL

AWAY WATFORD

HOME MANCHESTER UNITED

HOME NEWCASTLE UNITED

AWAY SOUTHAMPTON

AWAY NORWICH CITY

HOME STOKE CITY

AWAY LIVERPOOL

HOME WEST HAM UNITED

AWAY ASTON VILLA

HOME MANCHESTER CITY

AWAY BOURNEMOUTH

HOME TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

AWAY SUNDERLAND

HOME LEICESTER CITY

 

18 wins = 54pts

3 draws = 3pts

3 defeats

 

= possible 57pts to come

 

That gives us a total of 68 points for the season. Arsenal got fourth place in 2011 with 68 points, so It isn't impossible.

 

All these figures mean nothing unless the team can turn it around, but It's not too late.

We only played 12 games so there is still 26 games to play

 

18 wins / 4 draws / 3 defeats (from the list). What game is missing and can we win that?

 

Last year we won the league on 87 points which is 2.29 per game. Based on that if we could replicate that form we would get another 59.53 points. Call it 59 + 11 already = 70 points. Whilst this may reach 4th it is unlikely. Also what is the chances of us turning our season around NOW?

 

Even if RA sacks JM we will not make it. I just say lets win the CL and p*ss off 4th place!! or accept a year out and blood some youngsters.

[coco]

We only played 12 games so there is still 26 games to play

 

18 wins / 4 draws / 3 defeats (from the list). What game is missing and can we win that?

 

Last year we won the league on 87 points which is 2.29 per game. Based on that if we could replicate that form we would get another 59.53 points. Call it 59 + 11 already = 70 points. Whilst this may reach 4th it is unlikely. Also what is the chances of us turning our season around NOW?

 

Even if RA sacks JM we will not make it. I just say lets win the CL and p*ss off 4th place!! or accept a year out and blood some youngsters.

 

Sorry I missed Swansea away.

 

Which could go either way, let's call it a draw.

[coco]

Whilst this may reach 4th it is unlikely. Also what is the chances of us turning our season around NOW?

 

 

 

IF we can reproduce our old form yes we can, but that's the biggest problem, imagining all this turning round.

Edited November 11, 2015 by coco

[coco]

Our next 6 prem games, four of them are at home, that looks like a good chance to start the turnaround.

[romfordblue]

Our next 6 prem games, four of them are at home, that looks like a good chance to start the turnaround.

 

Seen our home games so far! Not confident TBH. Only thing i do know is REGARDLESS i will still be a massive fan and will keep touring the country. Lets just hope we can kick start the season now and NOT in January when JM goes spending in the sales.

 

I do know beating the Arsenal keeps that lot from taking the mickey. Now the same to the Spuds.

[splishsplosh]

I think realistically, staving off relegation should be the priority. 

 

Jose should attempt to lose a few games in the CL and finish 3rd in the group so we enter the Europa League. It will be our only way to qualify for the CL next season.