I really wanted to play a different team, I dont like having the same draw over and over.

 

If we played this weekend they would score 5 against us.

PSG is the least of our worry right now, if we play them next week they will put 6 past us easy, or maybe the players will actually put up a fight and win it over 2 legs.

They would win if it was next week. I think we have a motivation problem. Seems the players for the most part are only worried about winnihg the CL.

It's a script I hadn't expected 3 months ago. This is some evil scriptwriter, I'm telling you :-)

Yea, I'm convinced the devil is writing this script.

Hello there,

 

After yesterday's draw, I just wanted to know how the CFC fans reacted when they saw the three letters PSG on the little white paper...

 

So, i read few pages of this forum, and, surprise, you had the same reaction i had... that can be summarized in one word : f*ck, playing them one more time...

 

Many reasons for me to this. 

 

Even if times are hard for you by now, Chelsea remains a great club. Very difficult to play against, whoever you are, especially in SB. Also, you've got the Special One... well, I think he's still special. At least, he has better tactical skills than Laurent Blanc has.

 

More, I saw the match against Leicester last night. Was kind of a disaster. In febuary, it can't be worst, hopefully. I think the Chelsea player will give all they have inside to win. I'm convinced that Chelsea will show a better motivation and a better football for these two legs. And I'm a bit afraid about that pride reaction you could have. You still have fist class players.

 

Once I said that, well, i've to admit i'm confident. We're way stronger than past year.

 

I read here that the lack of oppostion in our league is a good point for Chelsea. I disagree. Would you say that from Bayern, winning his league every year in march ? Or from Barça or Madrid ? The fact is that this position will allow us to make good rotation in our team. And that's what we began to do. Also, even if Chelsea will probably considered as the underdog this year, don't believe that PSG players will do the mistake to underestimate CFC. This will not happen, ever. In any case. Not this year, when we play 100% of our capacity even against the last team of our league. That's probably the greatest change from last year in our club. 

 

Just a word to answer a question above about Sirigu. The PSG board think he's a good keeper, but the not the kind that make you win match thanks to incredibles stops. That's why we took Trapp... but he still has to improve his ability to focus and avoid the big mistakes.

 

To conclude, dispite of the disappointement of playing Chelsea again... I'm eager to see those matches ! 

 

One question to finish, how can you still support Diego Costa ? (well, i think, he's the same type of player than Verratti, the guy you hate when you play against and you adore when he's one ure side :) )

Genuinely think we'll win.

 

We'll stumble through Christmas then sign one or two players in January which will reinvigorate us, by the time we play PSG we'll have fresh momentum having transformed somewhat into our old selves while PSG may well be jaded from such a dull domestic league.

Genuinely think I have more chance of winning the Euro millions !

Genuinely think we'll win.

We'll stumble through Christmas then sign one or two players in January which will reinvigorate us, by the time we play PSG we'll have fresh momentum having transformed somewhat into our old selves while PSG may well be jaded from such a dull domestic league.

FM 2016

Please do, I'd love to know how it works too.

 

Hey sorry, I had forgotten about this!

 

This is very difficult if we start calculating permutations in a book. It is much easier to write a simple program.

 

One way to go about this is to start off with a matrix (pot1 vs pot2) with any particular number (say 100, it doesn't matter really) in all the cells except the main diagonal. At this stage, every match has an equal chance of being drawn and therefore the same number of permutations each.

 

Use another matrix with 1s and 0s to refer to which match ups are allowed.

 

Now we modify the first matrix. Man City - Arsenal is not allowed. That is 4 vs 6. All 100 permutations with 4,6 disappear. As these 100 are not exclusive and involve other team combinations for the other matches, we need to calculate how these 100 were distributed among the other matches.

 

Each number in any row (or column) of the matrix are mutually exclusive, in that one cannot occur while the other does. For example 1,2 ans 1,5 cannot be together. We also know that 1 has to play and that team 1 is involved in all permutations. We will therefore remove 100 from each row (distributed among the matches) but the challenge is to calculate which combinations took up how much of the 100.

 

This can be done by going through each element in the matrix in a loop and calculating how many possibilities there are with that 1 match up fixed and 4,6 fixed. This is basically 6*5*4*3*2*1 if every match up including same group was possible. As it is more complicated than this and calculations will be different for specific instances, we run a series of loops to count the number of remaining combinations while using the binary matrix to tell us which matches are forbidden. We do that for all elements of the matrix (except the diagonals and all elements of row 4 and column 6). We then standardize each value by the sum of the row and subtract each of these values from the initial 100 as we now have the relative contributions of each combination to the 100 that we earlier removed.

 

Do the same for the remaining forbidden match ups.

 

Here's the result I got. It doesn't match with the previous table    But it is qualitatively the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 201510 yr by ashwin

Here's the code as an attachment if anyone is interested. It runs on R.

 

I hope the previous post made sense. Also there is probably a small mistake somewhere (I assume that the earlier result is the exact one). I'm not a programmer and I can't possibly look through all that to find the mistake!

 

Champs league draw 1.txt

 

 

You lost me at... 'Hey Sorry'..  

FM 2016

Clever as your comment is have you looked at the league table right now?