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SydneyChelsea

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SydneyChelsea last won the day on September 15 2017

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About SydneyChelsea

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    Good music, good food, good football

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  1. Because they took UEFA to court over FFP and basically won, that's why. UEFA learned that FFP is practically unenforceable in its current format. Even with the amount of evidence that UEFA took to CAS, the investigation took so long that many of the best charges were time-barred. The court cases themselves can take so long that the punishment, if it is ever realised, will only happen years after the charges are laid. Man City clearly knew the above and stalled through a refusal to hand over investigations or evidence. The most UEFA could charge them with was a failure to cooperate, which only attracts a fine. COVID-recessions have been a boon for them. 3 years ago the likes of Jesus, Laporte, Bernardo Silva etc would be long gone to Juve or Spain at the first hint of a lack of playing time - Leroy Sane, case in point. Now, they're stuck with players they don't need to offload because no one can afford them.
  2. Probably. If anything, it's worthwhile to remember that one point Azpilicueta was probably the best 1 v 1 defender in the entire world. I think the club probably see a similar set of skills/potential in Kounde and in combination with Reece James would make a hell of a defensive right-hand side in either a back three or four. Interestingly, here is an article from 2020 that talks about Kounde in a different light, and is effusive about his all around defensive game rather than his attacking flair. https://breakingthelines.com/player-analysis/player-analysis-jules-kounde/
  3. Wrong image from the game - there was another moment where the Atletico players started barking at Rudiger and promptly quietened down when Zouma showed up
  4. I agree that you should never discount athletic qualities with recruiting, but Kounde is extremely athletic - speed, explosiveness and jumping abilities are all athletic benchmarks. You cannot teach someone to have more fast-twitch muscle fibres than others, and Kounde is a very explosive athlete. Remember for a moment that Tim Cahill, at the same height, made an absolute mockery of much more aerially-dominant defenders at set-pieces because of his athletic ability. Being tall doesn't automatically make you aerially dominant (David Luiz, anyone?), specifically at set-pieces where you actually have to challenge players with force in the air. That said, he's more or less the same prototype as Christensen/Rudiger at CB (except probably a bit better on the ball) and Reece James at RWB/RCB (except a little better in the air). I don't understand what he offers to the squad beyond being an excellent rotation option in a 3-atb system, and a potential waste in a 4-atb system. Given than Tuchel is historically the tinkeriest of tinkermen, it makes no sense to lock us into a single formation.
  5. Agree, same applies for Pulisic. They both lose the option of beating a player on the outside, because the wingbacks are the width providers in this system. They lose space to run at players, particularly when we dominate possession. It is a problem with this 3-atb system that leads to lower quality chances.
  6. Things definitely have clicked for him at wingback, but it's a tactical niche. When Tuchel is sacked mid-season and we hire a manager who reverts to a back-four, Hudson-Odoi has nothing going for him. No question he should be playing over Pulisic for me either, position or otherwise.
  7. My favourite part about these signings is that all the Twitter ITKs etc were completely blindsided, especially hilarious as most of them are trying to monetise their glorified gossip columns. They are fed information from the club and only know what the club wants them to know. If you're paying for this nonsense please re-examine your life choices
  8. Maybe, but we also need to understand that wing-back has different requirements and in many ways is an 'easier' role. The numbers don't quite suggest he is performing exceptionally as an attacking midfielder/winger, because of the inflation above caused by position. This season he is at a crossroads; right now he is merely an average attacker at best, or he can pivot to a tactical niche that suits his skillset well but doesn't really do much for his overall quality as a player. I really want to see him kick on as an attacking midfielder as I think he will be relegated to an afterthought as a wing-back. At the end of the day though, he's 20. There is a long way to go before we should make any definitive conclusions about him.
  9. Silva looks like he's headed to Barcelona if they could magically resolve their wages issue. Maybe Mahrez or Sterling are swapped for Kane?
  10. He's definitely top class in that RCB role but I worry we are amassing players best suited to a 3atb formation. Given that Tuchel historically puts Ranieri to shame for tinkering, is it wise to lock him into a squad suited to just one formation?
  11. Absolutely. FB Ref define their xA as the "xG that follows a pass" - ie the xG of where the receiving player takes his shot. So when Callum passes to a player, they are likely to recieve the ball in a position where the average player only has a 26% chance of scoring. Given he's one of the better players on that stat, it's a decent indictment for the whole team. The stat doesn't account for a situation where a pass/cross is made and no one makes a shot. When you think of how many crosses/square-balls Chilwell, James and Hudson-Odoi have ripped across the box with no one nearby, it's even more depressing. To mind that's showing a worst-case scenario where our creating players are creating poor quality chances, and our finishing players are not getting in the right areas or don't have the right skillset to make the most of the chances. Edit: This video of Ziyech illustrates a bit what we're talking about. Most of the chances shown in the first part of the videl would not be counted by any attacking statistic, since they don't result in any shot. Yet they are obviously quality passes and if we had someone with Drogba's ability to finish at the back stick, he'd be unstoppable!
  12. Some nice graphs and numbers there @Gol15 so I wanted to take a closer look. I like to look at data in context, so I wanted to compare Hudson-Odoi's data to the benchmarks in the league, as well as similar players (eg Saka, and our other wingbacks) to get an idea of what is exceptional and what is just ordinary in this league. The tl;dr summary is: Leads the team in quantity of passes/crosses but his xA accurately predicted his output, and it is quite low (0.25 assists per 90 mins) which suggests there are questions over the quality of his output. In other words, he's putting a lot of balls into the box, but the low xA suggests they aren't always in good areas for the recipient. Top attackers in the league have an xA over 0.30 per 90 mins; our closest player is Ziyech with 0.28. His numbers compare very favourably to top wingbacks/fullbacks (eg Alexander-Arnold, Cancelo) but are merely decent for wingers/attacking midfielders. As a wingback, he tends to receive the ball in space far more often, whereas as an attacking midfielder he is required to receive the ball and make plays in much tighter areas. How much do the tactical differences influence his output? GCA/SCA are very nebulous stats that attempt to quantify the 'creativity' of a player but their validity (in the data science sense) is difficult to establish, as they are based on the last two plays leading to a goal or shot. For example: If Hudson-Odoi splits the defence for Werner to cross the ball to Mount for a tap-in, all three are awarded a Goal Creating Action (GCA) If Thiago Silva passes the ball 5 yards to Jorginho, who plays a through-ball to Werner, all three are awarded a GCA This means that the stat can be useful for midfielders and attackers, but less useful if the player is a defender. It's possible that Hudson-Odoi's time at WB could majorly inflate this. The GCA/SCA graph posted merely suggests that if Hudson-Odoi is involved in a move, it's likely to lead to a goal. Without accounting for game state, or the quality of opposition, there's not a lot we can glean from this especially because of the above. The progressive carries data is interesting. This is a stat that looks at how many times the player carries the ball towards the opposition goal; again, this is heavily influenced by position and tactics. Hudson-Odoi is actually exceptional even for a fullback/wingback, and this probably shows where his tactical value to Tuchel lies. The dribbling graph is somewhat misleading as it doesn't take into account position/tactics. Statistically, defenders + midfielders will always have better dribble percentages than any attacker because they are moving the ball in a less congested, less pressed part of the field. The only out-and-out attacker who appears in the top 30 EPL players for dribbling % is Bernardo Silva! That explains the lopsided nature of the graph. Hudson-Odoi (53.6%) still rates as pretty good for wingbacks/fullbacks in the EPL, but pales in comparison to Reece James (75%!) - that suggests we can't read too much into this once we account for position/role. The data confirms his potential but we all know that. It's telling that some of his statistics are 'inflated' by position - if we were to look at it really harshly, the data might suggest that he could be an average winger, but a world-class wingback. However, that really just relegates him to being football's next Victor Moses, not the electric winger we all want him to be, and assumes he has no room to improve. I think this season is where he has to really push himself to demonstrate he can be a top-tier attacking midfielder because otherwise his career will be a footnote as an 'interesting tactical solution'.
  13. And this is the utter nonsense that their fanbase has been swilling for years. First it was Wenger, now Arteta. Arsenal's business model is to develop players and sell them to line the pockets of their owners. During their most profitable times, very little if any of their profit was reinvested in making the club more competitive on/off the pitch. The majority of their profit is siphoned to the owners. They have spent the last 15 years conditioning their fanbase to not just accept a lack of competitiveness, but to embrace it as some noble ideal. The refusal to invest keeps expectations low and the cycle repeats, year after year after year. The whole fanbase haven been taken for absolute mugs.
  14. I'll freely admit that I am on record here as being one for "play the youth at all costs!!" but even I am beginning to recognise the truth of exactly this. Last couple of years have really underlined that for me. Mount & co. aren't just kids brought in to fill out pre-season obligations and squad numbers in the season, they genuinely compete for, and win titles as some of the most dominant and impactful players in the competition. Would Tomas Kalas or Lewis Baker or Ola Aina have done the same?
  15. Probably splitting hairs here but Giggs debuted in 1991 and Beckham, Neville and Butt the season after; Scholes was 1993-94. That is not that different to the Chelsea situation with Christensen, RLC & Hudson-Odoi, Abraham & Mount and finally Reece James & Billy Gilmour. The recent success of the above is an immediate obstacle to the generation below them. Would Guehi dislodge Christensen, Gallagher dislodge Mount, Bate dislodge Gilmour or Livramento dislodge James right now? They'd be rotation options at best for a few years to come because they are simply too close in age to established players, meaning that they simply would not get the game time to fulfil their potential. I don't blame them for leaving, and I also don't blame the club for not losing any sleep about letting them go.
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