Romelu Lukaku

[STATS]

9 minutes ago, The Brit said:

Costa has proved he can do it in the big games...I like Lukaku and we treated him like sh*t first time around...but he rarely scores against the best sides...remember a stat recently that he's got something like three goals in last 30 league games against the top four or six

The only disagreement I have with this is that we have not seen what Lukaku is like for a top club against another top club. Everton are generally bad against big teams so maybe it a case of him not getting service and Everton being outplayed. Costa, has scored in big games but has also had big games where he has been poor or not scored as well tbh. If Costa goes to a major team, maybe he would get a chance of scoring more because his team would get more chances.

[The Brit]

^ that's a fair point...but it still remains a question mark over whether Lukaku can handle the pressure of a big fee at a big club under big pressure in big games...at Everton he can have bad games and nothing is said in the media...have a stinker for chelsea, just ask Torres, and you're in deep sh*t 

[SydneyChelsea]

A couple of people have raised the argument that Lukaku's goal return is explained by him scoring lots in one game followed by dry spells. I guess the argument from some seems to be that a player who scores in many games of a season is better than one who scores just as many but in fewer appearances. This is a testable prediction, so let's look at the statistics.

To quantify this, i've used the records from Soccerbase.com which keeps track of what games players have scored in. We then divide that by the total number of appearances to see what percentage of total games the player scores in.

For time's sake these stats are not perfect, as they include all competitions - they could be cleaned up by looking at league appearances only. However, since the argument above relates to the frequency of the player scoring ignoring all other factors, we don't lose out on too much. That said, if accuracy grates you, feel free to look it up yourself and correct!

Also, I excluded the obvious suspects (Ronaldo and Messi) and also the likes of Cavani and Lewandowski who are a top-class players in a league obviously below their station, thereby skewing their stats. It's fairly obvious that these guys both score lots, and score often, and that's why they're the best in the world.

I also included Vardy and Giroud's "best ever" seasons as they were integral to their team's fortunes that season.

	2016/17	2015/16	2014/15
Suarez	56%	62%	42%
Costa	58%	44%	61%
Aguero	42%	38%	49%
Kane	47%	38%	43%
Higuain	47%	54%	35%
Vardy		48%
Giroud		34%
Lukaku	53%	39%	33%

I think most people would agree that Suarez, Costa, Aguero, Kane and Higuain are all around the same level of talent, however it is clear to see that Costa and Suarez score lots of goals but significantly more often than the others' in this list. If we look at the numbers, we see that exceptional strikers score in around 60% of their appearances, as evidenced by Suarez and Costa's best seasons. "Good" strikers tend to at least score in about 40-50% of their appearances. Lukaku's record is not all that different from Higuain/Aguero/Kane, and it's clear to see he's made a huge improvement scoring in 53% of his appearances this season. The idea that he pads his record against certain teams, as opposed to scoring regularly, is a bit of a myth. Sure, he's not in the same class of Costa or Suarez when it comes to consistency but there are also excellent strikers out there who also miss out.

That said, when we bring some more context into these statistics, there are many more questions that need to be answered for my money, particularly on whether Lukaku is a suitable direct replacement for Costa. Lukaku, unlike virtually all the other strikers on this list, is the primary attacking threat in his team. This season, he's creating roughly as many shots and being as clinical as Costa (Squawka.com), albeit with much more time on the ball. It's hard to say that playing in the Chelsea system would reduce his effectiveness or increase it because he's actually playing with other genuine attacking threats. If he can maintain his current level of chance creation and finishing ability, then he'd be an unquestionable success.

Getting Lukaku is one thing, but I think we also need to consider a replacement for Pedro/Willian too if we truly want to get to the next level, and that makes Lukaku's price tag look rather unappealing.

[Ernie_blue]

Costa isn't on Suarez, Lewandowski or Higuain's level and probably a few others too, they are world class. 

[bluedave]

^Good post (edit - SydneyChelsea's, I mean), although I think people will continue to believe what they want to believe regardless of the reality. For example, I remember a post from a month or two ago that disproved the myth that he can't score against the big sides, yet I still see the same argument popping up here.

Also, I find the argument that we shouldn't sign him because he has the wrong sort of goal celebration very odd, but then again I'm not a psychologist, so maybe I just lack the knowledge to follow that logic.

Edited March 16, 2017 by bluedave

[SydneyChelsea]

11 minutes ago, Ernie_blue said:

Costa isn't on Suarez, Lewandowski or Higuain's level and probably a few others too, they are world class. 

When we're talking about consistency of scoring, the numbers above show otherwise.

For the record, Lewandowski also hits that magic number of 60%, but obviously in a much weaker league.

[Ernie_blue]

15 minutes ago, SydneyChelsea said:

When we're talking about consistency of scoring, the numbers above show otherwise.

For the record, Lewandowski also hits that magic number of 60%, but obviously in a much weaker league.

Does it show how many minutes per game the striker has played? Costa never gets subbed while Aguero and Kane have been injured for example. Also if it's including cup games then it all depends on the quality of the opposition.

No stat will prove to me Costa is on Saurez's level let alone other forwards I can name. Costa is in a group of players which sit behind the world class forwards.

[axman2526]

Have to agree with Ernie. Diego is a very good goal scorer, and that is a very good thing for us, but he is not up there with those others. 

We had a truly world class striker in drogba and a truly world class forward in Gianfranco but no one else in my 22 plus years has come close to them in my opinion. 

[TheChelseaBlues]

Lukaku or bust for me if Diego leaves

[comtrend]

54 minutes ago, TheChelseaBlues said:

Lukaku or bust for me if Diego leaves

We could potentially buy Sanchez, Morata and Mbappe for the money we would get of Costa and Batshuayi alone. 

[Ernie_blue]

1 hour ago, comtrend said:

We could potentially buy Sanchez, Morata and Mbappe for the money we would get of Costa and Batshuayi alone. 

Depends if Costa goes to China or not. Suarez would be ridicolous money and thats even if he wants to leave.

[ashwin]

13 hours ago, bluedave said:

^Good post (edit - SydneyChelsea's, I mean), although I think people will continue to believe what they want to believe regardless of the reality. For example, I remember a post from a month or two ago that disproved the myth that he can't score against the big sides, yet I still see the same argument popping up here.

Also, I find the argument that we shouldn't sign him because he has the wrong sort of goal celebration very odd, but then again I'm not a psychologist, so maybe I just lack the knowledge to follow that logic.

Agree, good analysis by SydneyChelsea. I have no doubt that he will score loads of goals against lower opposition or when the going is easy.

Given the number of clutch games we play in the league and cups, and potentially in the Champions league, we need a striker who can rise to the big occasion. Someone who is mentally strong and works for the team with no obvious personal record on occasion. Lukaku's arrogance leads me to believe that he cannot be that player. Not just his celebrations. His reactions when someone doesn't pass him the ball or he makes a mistake are so petulant. I am no psychologist but almost every other great striker in England or elsewhere (those who thrive in the bigger teams) is a team player. Ronaldo and Zlatan are exceptions but are also phenomenal talents.

That said, if we do sign him, I hope I am wrong and he becomes the player we hope he can be.

[TheChelseaBlues]

4 hours ago, comtrend said:

We could potentially buy Sanchez, Morata and Mbappe for the money we would get of Costa and Batshuayi alone. 

Suarez would be at least 100m my friend. Sanchez 50 and Im sure Mbappe won't be cheap. Im not sure how much you think we'll get for the pair. Has Bats increased in value and I havent realized it? 

[coco]

4 hours ago, Ernie_blue said:

Depends if Costa goes to China or not. Suarez would be ridicolous money and thats even if he wants to leave.

I couldn't stomach him here. I have though hard about it, i just couldn't look at him without wanting to give up on football all together.

[Ernie_blue]

2 hours ago, ashwin said:

Agree, good analysis by SydneyChelsea. I have no doubt that he will score loads of goals against lower opposition or when the going is easy.

Given the number of clutch games we play in the league and cups, and potentially in the Champions league, we need a striker who can rise to the big occasion. Someone who is mentally strong and works for the team with no obvious personal record on occasion. Lukaku's arrogance leads me to believe that he cannot be that player. Not just his celebrations. His reactions when someone doesn't pass him the ball or he makes a mistake are so petulant. I am no psychologist but almost every other great striker in England or elsewhere (those who thrive in the bigger teams) is a team player. Ronaldo and Zlatan are exceptions but are also phenomenal talents.

That said, if we do sign him, I hope I am wrong and he becomes the player we hope he can be.

Regarding Costa he is one of the biggest moaners in football, when he don't get passed the ball he whinges as much as anyone. He could also start a fight in an empty room so no ones perfect.

I reckon Chelsea would look at Lukuka first if Costa left because he has proven record of scoring goals in the prem. What's to say Lukuka won't score goals against all kinds of teams if he played for Chelsea. He will be playing with better players and getting more chances. When he plays for Everton against the big teams he will be lucky to get a chance. Look at Costa against 10 Man Utd, should of scored at last a couple.

 

[ashwin]

7 hours ago, Ernie_blue said:

Regarding Costa he is one of the biggest moaners in football, when he don't get passed the ball he whinges as much as anyone. He could also start a fight in an empty room so no ones perfect.

I reckon Chelsea would look at Lukuka first if Costa left because he has proven record of scoring goals in the prem. What's to say Lukuka won't score goals against all kinds of teams if he played for Chelsea. He will be playing with better players and getting more chances. When he plays for Everton against the big teams he will be lucky to get a chance. Look at Costa against 10 Man Utd, should of scored at last a couple.

 

Let's see...

I agree that Costa does complain once in a while but that is borne out of frustration rather than arrogance and entitlement as it is with Lukaku.

[Bobbywoodhogan]

Henry wasn't exactly a big game player, didn't score in cup finals for Arsenal and he didn't always score in big games. Infact if I remember rightly he only scored once at Old Trafford and that was a 6-1 drubbing by United. You often find the man who gets the golden boot for a team doesn't always do the business in the top games. I often find goals in those game usually come from an unexpected player like a defender or something.

[Ernie_blue]

1 hour ago, ashwin said:

Let's see...

I agree that Costa does complain once in a while but that is borne out of frustration rather than arrogance and entitlement as it is with Lukaku.

You should just say you don't like Lukaku as a person and end it there. How you know Lukaku is complaining out of arrogance and entitlement? That's abit harsh on someone you know nothing about.

[Ernie_blue]

1 hour ago, Bobbywoodhogan said:

Henry wasn't exactly a big game player, didn't score in cup finals for Arsenal and he didn't always score in big games. Infact if I remember rightly he only scored once at Old Trafford and that was a 6-1 drubbing by United. You often find the man who gets the golden boot for a team doesn't always do the business in the top games. I often find goals in those game usually come from an unexpected player like a defender or something.

Against the current top 6 Costa has scored 2 goals in 8 games. By those stats his not exactly banging them in but it doesn't make me think of him any worse as a forward.

Cahill loves to pop up with important goals. His always a big threat in the opposition box.

[bluedave]

1 hour ago, ashwin said:

Let's see...

I agree that Costa does complain once in a while but that is borne out of frustration rather than arrogance and entitlement as it is with Lukaku.

Ah oh, I didn't realise you knew them personally!

[Bobbywoodhogan]

41 minutes ago, Ernie_blue said:

Against the current top 6 Costa has scored 2 goals in 8 games. By those stats his not exactly banging them in but it doesn't make me think of him any worse as a forward.

Cahill loves to pop up with important goals. His always a big threat in the opposition box.

I was just making a point that Lukaku not scoring a lot against big teams doesn't really mean anything when we've had great players in the league who haven't either yet have gone on to do amazing things and win trophies. 

[Ernie_blue]

4 minutes ago, Bobbywoodhogan said:

I was just making a point that Lukaku not scoring a lot against big teams doesn't really mean anything when we've had great players in the league who haven't either yet have gone on to do amazing things and win trophies. 

I fully agree. I was using your post to show Costa hasn't really banged them in this year against the big teams 

I look at Lukaku and he has scored more goals than Costa in a team with less quality. They have played around the same minutes so he can't be all bad. His also 23 and will only get better. 

[Bobbywoodhogan]

3 minutes ago, Ernie_blue said:

I fully agree. I was using your post to show Costa hasn't really banged them in this year against the big teams 

I look at Lukaku and he has scored more goals than Costa in a team with less quality. They have played around the same minutes so he can't be all bad. His also 23 and will only get better. 

Oh haha I thought I hadn't made my point properly which I admit I can do lol 

[dkw]

3 hours ago, Bobbywoodhogan said:

Henry wasn't exactly a big game player, didn't score in cup finals for Arsenal and he didn't always score in big games. Infact if I remember rightly he only scored once at Old Trafford and that was a 6-1 drubbing by United. You often find the man who gets the golden boot for a team doesn't always do the business in the top games. I often find goals in those game usually come from an unexpected player like a defender or something.

Wasnt Henry famously known for never scoring in a single final for Arsenal also?

[Bobbywoodhogan]

43 minutes ago, dkw said:

Wasnt Henry famously known for never scoring in a single final for Arsenal also?

Yup, don't think he scored for Barca in a final either.