20 minutes ago, Big Nigel said:

the 600m isnt literally 600m, due to amortization even per player it wont work out that much in total.

I know. Hence why I said "this year's share of the £600M ... "  🙂 

It's going to be about £75m amortisation for the summer/January signings for 22/23.

It's still a lot of money to offset if in a good year results wise we are already making 9 figure losses ... (like 20/21 and 21/22).

I think we will need about £250M of player sales in the summer.

 

13 minutes ago, yaz said:

If this is true it could explain a thing or two...

The Premier League's FFP rules will still apply though !

8 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

I know. Hence why I said "this year's share of the £600M ... "  🙂 

It's going to be about £75m amortisation for the summer/January signings for 22/23.

It's still a lot of money to offset if in a good year results wise we are already making 9 figure losses ... (like 20/21 and 21/22).

I think we will need about £250M of player sales in the summer.

 

I don't think its that drastic. 

In terms of on the book profit iirc we need around 150m according to SwissRamble. 

Academy players sales will be a huge boost in that considering they will be 100% profit. 
 

We need to sell these players before June 30th as well. 
 

 

Edited March 27, 20233 yr by Sconnie Blue

7 minutes ago, Sconnie Blue said:

I don't think its that drastic. 

In terms of on the book profit iirc we need around 150m according to SwissRamble. 

Academy players sales will be a huge boost in that considering they will be 100% profit. 
 

We need to sell these players before June 30th as well. 
 

 

If our run rate of losses on the business is 100m from normal operations, and we need to be in profit 150m+, then we'll need 250m of sales. That was my logic. 

24 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

If our run rate of losses on the business is 100m from normal operations, and we need to be in profit 150m+, then we'll need 250m of sales. That was my logic. 

Yeah you are right. Just re-checked his report. Lot more drastic than I imagined. 

 

Premier League rule is 120m total in losses for a 3 year period. 

2020/21 : - 153.4m

2021/22 : - 121m

2022/23: - ????

 

At the moment we are 154m over that threshold, which is likely going to significantly increase based on this season unless we sell all those players before June 30th. 

 

 

 

Edited March 27, 20233 yr by Sconnie Blue

1 minute ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Yeah you are right. Just re-checked his report. Lot more drastic than I imagined. 

 

Premier League rule is 120m total in losses for a 3 year period. 

2020/21 : - 153.4m

2021/22 : - 121m

2022/23: - ????

 

At the moment we are 154m over that threshold, which is likely going to significantly increase based on this season. 

Bad situation for us to be in basically.

Every club knows we will need to sell, so will low ball ... 

Definitely need to shift Lukaku. Think Kovacic will go, possibly also Havertz. Pulisic and Ziyech if we can actually find someone to buy them, but don't think we will get much for either.

And then the academy lads look very vulnerable ... Mount, Gallagher, Chalobah, Broja, CHO, Maatsen ... very worried we will try and cash in on Colwill as well. If I am Tony Bloom, I'm definitely dangling an offer in front of Boehly for Levi ...

2 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

Bad situation for us to be in basically.

Every club knows we will need to sell, so will low ball ... 

Definitely need to shift Lukaku. Think Kovacic will go, possibly also Havertz. Pulisic and Ziyech if we can actually find someone to buy them, but don't think we will get much for either.

And then the academy lads look very vulnerable ... Mount, Gallagher, Chalobah, Broja, CHO, Maatsen ... very worried we will try and cash in on Colwill as well. If I am Tony Bloom, I'm definitely dangling an offer in front of Boehly for Levi ...

Boehly really f**ked us here. 1000th time I've posted this but all the good he did in January is miniscule to the damage he did over the summer. 

I don't see us complying at all to be honest. I reckon the owners will argue the sanctions had a big affect (which it has) but dropping down to 10th and this abysmal form isn't excusable. 

 

Yeah the financial situation doesn't look good to my untrained eye either. There is absolutely no way we don't make a significant operations loss next season as well without CL so the amount of money we would need to raise from player sales to comply will be astronomical and it simply won't happen as clubs know they can squeeze the living bejesus out of us as we are in trouble. The only player we would actually be able to sell is probably those we want to keep like Mount, Colwill, Chilwell, Kovacic and a few others as they are class players. Good luck shifting Pulisic, Ziyech and the likes.

I've feared a complete exodus of almost every academy-lad we have for a long time. I think that is coming and I hope there is a big reaction when it happens.

Brighton's books showed we paid £21.2 million for Graham Potter and we paid Tuchel and his team £15 million in compensation for sacking them. So nearly £40 million was spent on downgrading on the managerial front. It's almost a given that you are going to run into some sh*t when that's the way you run a club.

Edited March 27, 20233 yr by OriginalS

13 minutes ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Boehly really f**ked us here. 1000th time I've posted this but all the good he did in January is miniscule to the damage he did over the summer. 

I don't see us complying at all to be honest. I reckon the owners will argue the sanctions had a big affect (which it has) but dropping down to 10th and this abysmal form isn't excusable. 

 

I think the biggest problem is we simply pay wages that are too high for our level of turnover. 

It's been going on for years, but Boehly has come in and surprised me by actually making it far worse, particularly with the "summer" signings : obscene wages for Sterling and Koulibaly, paying way too much for Cucurella in both fee and wages, 12m for Potter when he was on 2m at Brighton, 250k a week for Reece James (up from £58K a week) ... where was the common sense in all of that LOL

The true benchmark for me is that we pay our best player Thiago Silva £110K a week ... 

Edited March 27, 20233 yr by Sexyfootball

What helps us is the contract amortization. 

After analyzing their transfer fee + contract length, this is the report loss. 

 

Enzo - 13.25m

Mudryk - 7.75m

Fofana - 10m

Cucurella -10m

Sterling - 10m

Aubameyang - 6m

Badiashile - 4m

Koulibaly - 8m

Madueke - 4m

Gusto - 3m (assuming 7 year deal)

Carney - 3m

Casadei - 2m

Santos - 2m

Fofana - 2m

Slonina - 1m

 

86m

 

 

 

 

As far as I can see btw Swiss Ramble's predictions for 21/22 was that we'd turn a £19 million pre tax profit. And unless i'm missing something he significantly missed the mark and even with that profit he predicted he said missing out on Champions League would give us issues. Hopefully we get a piece from him about where we stand now that we've suffered a major loss instead of a small profit.

As long as we go big on selling this summer, we will still be okay I feel

p.s we are set to lose a people on free's as well like Kante who is on 290k a week. Only issue I see is how much can we realistically sell before june 30th? Im sure we can agree on some deals before the summer as well, like how Xavier simons is joining hull. 

p.s we are sill sorting out our main shirt sponsor for the summer, so that could also help massively with income

Edited March 27, 20233 yr by Big Nigel

Mount and Gallagher's transfer could offset this year's transfer expenditure alone. This isn't even including the other player sales. 

You then have the reoccurring amortization to consider, as well as the other expenditures. But when those things are considered, it makes complying that much more possible IMO. 

20 minutes ago, Sconnie Blue said:

What helps us is the contract amortization. 

After analyzing their transfer fee + contract length, this is the report loss. 

 

Enzo - 13.25m

Mudryk - 7.75m

Fofana - 10m

Cucurella -10m

Sterling - 10m

Aubameyang - 6m

Badiashile - 4m

Koulibaly - 8m

Madueke - 4m

Gusto - 3m (assuming 7 year deal)

Carney - 3m

Casadei - 2m

Santos - 2m

Fofana - 2m

Slonina - 1m

 

86m

A little bit less than that I think ... I'm no expert on the accounting rules , but I'd guess the January signings are probably only going to have 6 months worth of amortisation in the 22/23 figures ... up to 30th June ?

Just now, Sexyfootball said:

A little bit less than that I think ... I'm no expert on the accounting rules , but I'd guess the January signings are probably only going to have 6 months worth of amortisation in the 22/23 figures ... up to 30th June ?

If that's the case the number will be less than 86m. 

 

20 minutes ago, OriginalS said:

As far as I can see btw Swiss Ramble's predictions for 21/22 was that we'd turn a £19 million pre tax profit. And unless i'm missing something he significantly missed the mark and even with that profit he predicted he said missing out on Champions League would give us issues. Hopefully we get a piece from him about where we stand now that we've suffered a major loss instead of a small profit.

OUCH 😂

Let's say if Boehly is as good as a negotiator when comes to selling compares to buying players. Selling Mount and Gallagher would help, but when you are doing a 'firesale' and Mount only has a year left on his contract, the advantage is clearly with the buyers. Let's use this as a motivation to win the CL then, win it or you will be sold to Forest.

16 minutes ago, icecoolguy22 said:

Let's say if Boehly is as good as a negotiator when comes to selling compares to buying players. Selling Mount and Gallagher would help, but when you are doing a 'firesale' and Mount only has a year left on his contract, the advantage is clearly with the buyers. Let's use this as a motivation to win the CL then, win it or you will be sold to Forest.

Also need to space it out. No good selling a lot of youth products for 200mill or 300mill as it counts to just 1 year of FFP.

 

Will need to space out the sales to cover the FFP outlay each year.

Mount alone may be enough in year one is players like Mendy and Kova are going too.

There will be an ask or if needed a legal case to argue a relaxation of the rules based on the sanctions. 

Highly qualified accountants who work for our multi billionaire owners will crunch the numbers to be favourable

We will sell a couple of players

With those 3 actions, we will be fine. 

On 28/03/2023 at 03:57, yaz said:

If this is true it could explain a thing or two...

People believe anything they read on social media. Chelsea is always under UEFA "jurisdiction". The reporting periods now consider 5 years of financials, so unless we're planning to stay out of Europe the next 5 years we better get our FFP sh*t together.

On 28/03/2023 at 05:19, OriginalS said:

As far as I can see btw Swiss Ramble's predictions for 21/22 was that we'd turn a £19 million pre tax profit. And unless i'm missing something he significantly missed the mark and even with that profit he predicted he said missing out on Champions League would give us issues. Hopefully we get a piece from him about where we stand now that we've suffered a major loss instead of a small profit.

While his blogs are thoughtful and well-written, the numbers they use are based on media reports and not some authoritative source of financial information. He's also conveniently moved to a subscriber model, so you'll have to pay for the privilege!

We already knew that we would have to sell off a bunch of players this summer as the squad is way too big. The challenge is that it will be hard to sell some of the players that are not wanted here. Many of the players that could generate decent transfer fees are likely to be academy players like Mount and Gallagher. Considering the players that have been brought in I can see us trying to offload Chalobah, CHO, RLC, at least one of Mount/Gallagher. We would also likely try to get some fees for some of the younger players we have loaned out this season like Maatsen, Anjorin, Vale, Simons, Sterling etc. Although apart from Maatsen I don't see many of that group generating significant income.

Of the non-academy players we should be able get something for Pulisic, Ziyech, Sarr, Mendy. Remains to be seen if we also try to offload any players that have come in since Clearlake took over. Perhaps we get a loan fee for 1 or 2.

Beyond the question of how we need to raise by selling some of these player, I wonder where this leaves us in regards to the squad rebuild plans? Hard to imagine we will be able to spend much this summer now, especially with UEFA now blocking the amortization loophole.

 

19 minutes ago, forbzy said:

We already knew that we would have to sell off a bunch of players this summer as the squad is way too big. The challenge is that it will be hard to sell some of the players that are not wanted here. Many of the players that could generate decent transfer fees are likely to be academy players like Mount and Gallagher. Considering the players that have been brought in I can see us trying to offload Chalobah, CHO, RLC, at least one of Mount/Gallagher. We would also likely try to get some fees for some of the younger players we have loaned out this season like Maatsen, Anjorin, Vale, Simons, Sterling etc. Although apart from Maatsen I don't see many of that group generating significant income.

Of the non-academy players we should be able get something for Pulisic, Ziyech, Sarr, Mendy. Remains to be seen if we also try to offload any players that have come in since Clearlake took over. Perhaps we get a loan fee for 1 or 2.

Beyond the question of how we need to raise by selling some of these player, I wonder where this leaves us in regards to the squad rebuild plans? Hard to imagine we will be able to spend much this summer now, especially with UEFA now blocking the amortization loophole.

 

This is a reasonable take on things I think Forbzy.

The one see as being a problem is Malang Sarr. He's been sh*te on loan at Monaco this season, and he's on big money for his level of ability. Who is going to take him, and why would he give up probably the only big contract he'll get in his entire career ?

3 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

This is a reasonable take on things I think Forbzy.

The one see as being a problem is Malang Sarr. He's been sh*te on loan at Monaco this season, and he's on big money for his level of ability. Who is going to take him, and why would he give up probably the only big contract he'll get in his entire career ?

Agreed. Amazingly we got a loan fee for him this season too. Maybe we can find another loan for him to at least cover some of the wages. I cannot see him staying with the club next season.

If the worst comes to the worst Uncle Ken will buy us for a pound .......again.

Edited March 30, 20233 yr by just