My problem with your logic here is that we've seen too many times that playing Matic-Mikel doesn't give us a more solid defence.

 

 

 

Actually it does, and I can evidence it statistically. All we have to do is look at how many goals per game we conceded with the Matic-Mikel midfield and compare it to how many goals per game we conceded without the Matic-Mikel midfield.

 

I'll start by ignoring all the games under José (as it was under a completely different set of circumstances), as well as the FA Cup games, as the poor quality of the opposition will possibly skew the relevance of the statistics we can derive from this. I will also only count any games as Matic-Mikel games in which they both start, or at least both share the field for 45 minutes (so the stats don't get rendered irrelevant by, say, 87th minute subs).

 

That leaves us with the following games in which Matic and Mikel played together for at least 45 minutes:

*Watford (H) - D 2-2

Man Utd (A) - D 0-0

*Everton (H) - D 3-3

Arsenal (A) - W 1-0

Watford (A) - D 0-0

*Man Utd (H) - D 1-1

*Stoke (H) - D 1-1

 

I have asterisked four of the games, as one or other of them was subbed on or off after/before playing 45 minutes or more:

Watford (H) - Mikel was only subbed on at half-time; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-1.

Everton (H) - Matic was subbed off after 55 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [down].

Man Utd (H) - Matic was subbed off after 67 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was still 1-1 (so is irrelevant).

Stoke (H) - Matic was subbed off after 82 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [up].

 

As the only statistics which are relevant to our enquiry are the number of goals we concede with that particular partnership on the pitch - we must amend the number of goals we count in those games to 1, 1, 1, and 0 respectively instead of 2, 3, 1, and 1 respectively. In the interests of not appearing biased towards my own point, I won't include the additional goals conceded in the list of games I count as not including the Mikel and Matic midfield. Therefore, the statistics I find at the end of this enquiry, despite actually demonstrating the point I made that we are more defensively solid with Mikel and Matic playing together, are actually methodologically biased against the point, which if anything is another point to my point's advantage.

 

So the final calculation:

1 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 3 goals conceded in 7 games

 

Therefore, our average goals per game conceded with Mikel and Matic in the side is 0.43/game.

 

 

Now we can look at the following games in which Mikel and Matic did not play together for at least 45 minutes:

Sunderland (H) - W 3-1

Crystal Palace (A) - W 3-0

West Brom (H) - D 2-2

Newcastle (H) - W 5-1

Southampton (A) - W 2-1

Norwich (A) - W 2-1

PSG (A) - L 2-1

 

This leads us to the calculation:

1 + 0 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 8 goals conceded in 7 games.

 

Therefore our average goals per game conceded without Mikel and Matic in the side is 1.14/game.

 

 

1.14 goals per game conceded without the Mikel-Matic combination versus 0.43 goals per game conceded with the Mikel-Matic combination- that is a fairly significant difference.

 

 

Caveats (off the top of my head):

 

1) I have not factored in the quality of the opposition, although I suppose that is entirely subjective. In theory you would expect us to play two defensive midfielders against stronger opposition, and looking at the fixtures I have studied that seems to ring true - the only [on paper] difficult games were away to Southampton and away to PSG - the rest were against either very poor sides or sides in very poor form. The Mikel-Matic games are more tricky than against offensively lethal sides (there is certainly no individual fixture against a side as good as PSG), but the overall quality of the sides is probably better (home and away against Man Utd; away to Arsenal, home to an offensively potent Everton side, etc.) I suppose you could try and quantify it using league position but that seems like it would be a bit spurious (and also I really can't be bothered).

 

2) This could well just be a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc, i.e. the number of goals per game conceded in any of these games is down to factors which have absolutely nothing to do with the presence of our defensive midfield partnership. This is probably valid to some extent in that there are definitely a myriad other factors at work, but to argue that our midfield has no relevance to our defensive solidity is completely absurd (someone might want to tell AVB that).

 

3) The sample size isn't especially large.

So when Mikel and Matic play together, we win 14% of our games.

 

When they don't we win 71% of our games.

 

And that in 100% of the wins in which they play together, the opposition has been reduced to ten men.

Edited March 9, 201610 yr by ShedEnder91

to put a spin on a quote from Jesse from breaking bad:

 

"Yeah, maths, bitch!"

Seems like Verratti is out. Not part of PSGs team walk in London at least.

 

That is potentialy huge for us. Their best midfielder.

Actually it does, and I can evidence it statistically. All we have to do is look at how many goals per game we conceded with the Matic-Mikel midfield and compare it to how many goals per game we conceded without the Matic-Mikel midfield.

 

I'll start by ignoring all the games under José (as it was under a completely different set of circumstances), as well as the FA Cup games, as the poor quality of the opposition will possibly skew the relevance of the statistics we can derive from this. I will also only count any games as Matic-Mikel games in which they both start, or at least both share the field for 45 minutes (so the stats don't get rendered irrelevant by, say, 87th minute subs).

 

That leaves us with the following games in which Matic and Mikel played together for at least 45 minutes:

*Watford (H) - D 2-2

Man Utd (A) - D 0-0

*Everton (H) - D 3-3

Arsenal (A) - W 1-0

Watford (A) - D 0-0

*Man Utd (H) - D 1-1

*Stoke (H) - D 1-1

 

I have asterisked four of the games, as one or other of them was subbed on or off after/before playing 45 minutes or more:

Watford (H) - Mikel was only subbed on at half-time; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-1.

Everton (H) - Matic was subbed off after 55 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [down].

Man Utd (H) - Matic was subbed off after 67 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was still 1-1 (so is irrelevant).

Stoke (H) - Matic was subbed off after 82 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [up].

 

As the only statistics which are relevant to our enquiry are the number of goals we concede with that particular partnership on the pitch - we must amend the number of goals we count in those games to 1, 1, 1, and 0 respectively instead of 2, 3, 1, and 1 respectively. In the interests of not appearing biased towards my own point, I won't include the additional goals conceded in the list of games I count as not including the Mikel and Matic midfield. Therefore, the statistics I find at the end of this enquiry, despite actually demonstrating the point I made that we are more defensively solid with Mikel and Matic playing together, are actually methodologically biased against the point, which if anything is another point to my point's advantage.

 

So the final calculation:

1 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 3 goals conceded in 7 games

 

Therefore, our average goals per game conceded with Mikel and Matic in the side is 0.43/game.

 

 

Now we can look at the following games in which Mikel and Matic did not play together for at least 45 minutes:

Sunderland (H) - W 3-1

Crystal Palace (A) - W 3-0

West Brom (H) - D 2-2

Newcastle (H) - W 5-1

Southampton (A) - W 2-1

Norwich (A) - W 2-1

PSG (A) - L 2-1

 

This leads us to the calculation:

1 + 0 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 8 goals conceded in 7 games.

 

Therefore our average goals per game conceded without Mikel and Matic in the side is 1.14/game.

 

 

1.14 goals per game conceded without the Mikel-Matic combination versus 0.43 goals per game conceded with the Mikel-Matic combination- that is a fairly significant difference.

 

 

Caveats (off the top of my head):

 

1) I have not factored in the quality of the opposition, although I suppose that is entirely subjective. In theory you would expect us to play two defensive midfielders against stronger opposition, and looking at the fixtures I have studied that seems to ring true - the only [on paper] difficult games were away to Southampton and away to PSG - the rest were against either very poor sides or sides in very poor form. The Mikel-Matic games are more tricky than against offensively lethal sides (there is certainly no individual fixture against a side as good as PSG), but the overall quality of the sides is probably better (home and away against Man Utd; away to Arsenal, home to an offensively potent Everton side, etc.) I suppose you could try and quantify it using league position but that seems like it would be a bit spurious (and also I really can't be bothered).

 

2) This could well just be a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc, i.e. the number of goals per game conceded in any of these games is down to factors which have absolutely nothing to do with the presence of our defensive midfield partnership. This is probably valid to some extent in that there are definitely a myriad other factors at work, but to argue that our midfield has no relevance to our defensive solidity is completely absurd (someone might want to tell AVB that).

 

3) The sample size isn't especially large.

 

Nice one! The stats look alright with them, but we only win 14% of the matches with them on the field, and we need to win tonight! Without them on the pitch we win 71% of the games, and of these 60% are by more than 2 goals (which we need tonight). So I think it is proven mathematically that we need to play with Fabregas - DM ;) 

Actually it does, and I can evidence it statistically. All we have to do is look at how many goals per game we conceded with the Matic-Mikel midfield and compare it to how many goals per game we conceded without the Matic-Mikel midfield.

 

I'll start by ignoring all the games under José (as it was under a completely different set of circumstances), as well as the FA Cup games, as the poor quality of the opposition will possibly skew the relevance of the statistics we can derive from this. I will also only count any games as Matic-Mikel games in which they both start, or at least both share the field for 45 minutes (so the stats don't get rendered irrelevant by, say, 87th minute subs).

 

That leaves us with the following games in which Matic and Mikel played together for at least 45 minutes:

*Watford (H) - D 2-2

Man Utd (A) - D 0-0

*Everton (H) - D 3-3

Arsenal (A) - W 1-0

Watford (A) - D 0-0

*Man Utd (H) - D 1-1

*Stoke (H) - D 1-1

 

I have asterisked four of the games, as one or other of them was subbed on or off after/before playing 45 minutes or more:

Watford (H) - Mikel was only subbed on at half-time; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-1.

Everton (H) - Matic was subbed off after 55 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [down].

Man Utd (H) - Matic was subbed off after 67 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was still 1-1 (so is irrelevant).

Stoke (H) - Matic was subbed off after 82 minutes; the score with the Mikel - Matic midfield on the pitch was only 1-0 [up].

 

As the only statistics which are relevant to our enquiry are the number of goals we concede with that particular partnership on the pitch - we must amend the number of goals we count in those games to 1, 1, 1, and 0 respectively instead of 2, 3, 1, and 1 respectively. In the interests of not appearing biased towards my own point, I won't include the additional goals conceded in the list of games I count as not including the Mikel and Matic midfield. Therefore, the statistics I find at the end of this enquiry, despite actually demonstrating the point I made that we are more defensively solid with Mikel and Matic playing together, are actually methodologically biased against the point, which if anything is another point to my point's advantage.

 

So the final calculation:

1 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 3 goals conceded in 7 games

 

Therefore, our average goals per game conceded with Mikel and Matic in the side is 0.43/game.

 

 

Now we can look at the following games in which Mikel and Matic did not play together for at least 45 minutes:

Sunderland (H) - W 3-1

Crystal Palace (A) - W 3-0

West Brom (H) - D 2-2

Newcastle (H) - W 5-1

Southampton (A) - W 2-1

Norwich (A) - W 2-1

PSG (A) - L 2-1

 

This leads us to the calculation:

1 + 0 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 8 goals conceded in 7 games.

 

Therefore our average goals per game conceded without Mikel and Matic in the side is 1.14/game.

 

 

1.14 goals per game conceded without the Mikel-Matic combination versus 0.43 goals per game conceded with the Mikel-Matic combination- that is a fairly significant difference.

 

 

Caveats (off the top of my head):

 

1) I have not factored in the quality of the opposition, although I suppose that is entirely subjective. In theory you would expect us to play two defensive midfielders against stronger opposition, and looking at the fixtures I have studied that seems to ring true - the only [on paper] difficult games were away to Southampton and away to PSG - the rest were against either very poor sides or sides in very poor form. The Mikel-Matic games are more tricky than against offensively lethal sides (there is certainly no individual fixture against a side as good as PSG), but the overall quality of the sides is probably better (home and away against Man Utd; away to Arsenal, home to an offensively potent Everton side, etc.) I suppose you could try and quantify it using league position but that seems like it would be a bit spurious (and also I really can't be bothered).

 

2) This could well just be a case of post hoc ergo propter hoc, i.e. the number of goals per game conceded in any of these games is down to factors which have absolutely nothing to do with the presence of our defensive midfield partnership. This is probably valid to some extent in that there are definitely a myriad other factors at work, but to argue that our midfield has no relevance to our defensive solidity is completely absurd (someone might want to tell AVB that).

 

3) The sample size isn't especially large.

 

Wow, just wow. I'm liking this comment just down to the fact you went out your way to do this maths whilst at work or whatever you are currently doing. Well done, sir. 

So when Mikel and Matic play together, we win 14% of our games.

 

When they don't we win 71% of our games.

 

 

When we played Norwich they were on a run of 8 defeats in 9 games (including one against Villa).

When we played Palace they were (and still are) on a run of 12 games without a win, including 8 defeats.

When we played Newcastle they were on a run of 5 defeats in 6 games (including Bournemouth at home).

When we played Sunderland they were on a run of 5 consecutive defeats.

 

 

Yes, if only we could play sides of that calibre and form every week.

We are playing a side who are, quite possibly, better than any team in the Premier League. The fact that we still endeavoured to concede so many more goals per game in a run of games which includes absolute dross like that than we did on a run which includes Man Utd (twice), Arsenal and Everton is testament to the solidity Mikel and Matic bring us.

When we played Norwich they were on a run of 8 defeats in 9 games (including one against Villa).

When we played Palace they were (and still are) on a run of 12 games without a win, including 8 defeats.

When we played Newcastle they were on a run of 5 defeats in 6 games (including Bournemouth at home).

When we played Sunderland they were on a run of 5 consecutive defeats.

 

 

Yes, if only we could play sides of that calibre and form every week.

We are playing a side who are, quite possibly, better than any team in the Premier League. The fact that we still endeavoured to concede so many more goals per game in a run of games which includes absolute dross like that than we did on a run which includes Man Utd (twice), Arsenal and Everton is testament to the solidity Mikel and Matic bring us.

 

Again, a very interesting post and obviously I'd expect that because you've mentioned before that you work in the football industry.

 

I'm only a layman but here's a go. I'll borrow your template.

 

When we played Stoke, they'd lost 4 of their last 6 away games.

When we played United, their next to away games in the Premier League were losses at Sunderland and West Brom.

Between the two Watford matches, they'd lose 4 of their 5 matches.

 

These don't appear to be teams of that high quality either but of course I'm picking and choosing what I use to support my argument. Now you're right that we have conceded fewer goals under Matic and Mikel, but we need to score tonight. We also need to win and the examples you used didn't quite prove that. I enjoyed reading your posts though.

Edited March 9, 201610 yr by ShedEnder91

Verratti is out according to Le Parisien!

That's BIG news for us, he makes them tick and Pastore simply doesn't defend.

About to set off for the bridge...really hope this is not last champions league game I see for 18 months (minimum).

I am so nervous about this game don't know why

I'm sure there will be touts around as always, but they won't be cheap for a game like this

Someone offered me a ticket but it is on their season ticket... is that normal?

it seems you dont know who is pastore i think you gonna be surprised here.

Edited March 9, 201610 yr by Shinishi

Verratti is a huge loss but Pastore is still a classy player as we have seen before.

"It will take our best performance of the season to turn this around. The whole team needs to perform if we are to go through. We have to do it together. We attack and defend together. We can't just look to individuals. They are a very good team but we will find a way to go through."

...and to the fans making their way to Stamford Bridge tonight.

"We need the supporters to make it as loud as possible. They have been amazing and fantastic to us this season. We have been up and down and they have stuck by us. Whether we have been doing badly or well, they have been there. Their support can help take us through tonight. This is also a chance for us to repay them by getting through to the quarter-finals."

-John Obi Mikel; Source: 

London Evening Standard

 

"The Champions League is a chance to save the season, everyone is aware of that. We know it's not going to be easy, it will be very hard. We've played PSG in the last two seasons and both times it's been decided on away goals."

"It's difficult because they have the best players in the French league. You can be prepared but when you get onto the pitch it's quality which decides the outcome. Obviously there is a tactical element, which the coach prepares, but when you play against these teams you never know what's going to happen."

"We haven't forgotten losing to them and we will try to win. It's not a nice feeling when you go out of the Champions League so we want to get through and try to save our season because in the Premier League we haven't been good enough."

-Nemanja Matic; Source: 

Chelsea FC

 

 

GET HYPED

isn't official about verrati le parisien is a talksh*t .

isn't official about verrati le parisien is a talksh*t .

We have Talksport

haha dont forgot this 

Edited March 9, 201610 yr by Shinishi

I'll just go re watch Munich 2012 to feel a bit better ;)

I'll just go re watch Munich 2012 to feel a bit better ;)

 

Or the Barca games where we stood defiant against a great team, rather than rolling over and giving up.

 

I'm off too. Best of luck to all you Blues tonight and let's get the result we want.

Hope the guys just gives 150%.

Eden we need you today

This will get you in the mood for tonight's game.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoqLFylORHk

 

Lampard's corners that night were so dangerous, we could have easily had scored more than 2 goals from corners that night.

 

Drogba, Terry, Lampard, Ivanovic, 4 legends that got us out of a mess, it's time for this group to step up and do the same.

This will get you in the mood for tonight's game.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoqLFylORHk

 

Lampard's corners that night were so dangerous, we could have easily had scored more than 2 goals from corners that night.

 

Drogba, Terry, Lampard, Ivanovic, 4 legends that got us out of a mess, it's time for this group to step up and do the same.

Amen

Too many PSG fans coming on here and giving it large, even if you do knock us out you won't win it.

This will get you in the mood for tonight's game.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoqLFylORHk

 

Lampard's corners that night were so dangerous, we could have easily had scored more than 2 goals from corners that night.

 

Drogba, Terry, Lampard, Ivanovic, 4 legends that got us out of a mess, it's time for this group to step up and do the same.

Was lucky enough to be at that game, what an incredible night!