1 minute ago, just said:

Fair points. For comparison, do you know how many total minutes he played and full 90 minute games and consecutive games he has played over the past 2 seasons compared to Werner? What is his goals per minutes played ratio over the past 2 seasons compared to Werner? Both fairly relevant pieces of information I think.

Personally I think that if Origi gets the same number of chances compared to Werner he will finish more. An opinion. Not a statistic.

 

Isn’t it funny how Messi doesn’t give a f**k about PSG. He missed 2 games and now he is flying off to play for Argentina hahaha, he can’t be bothered 

4 hours ago, just said:

Fair points. For comparison, do you know how many minutes he has played in total, and full 90 minute games and consecutive games he has played over the past 2 seasons compared to Werner? What is his goals per minutes played ratio over the past 2 seasons compared to Werner? Both fairly relevant pieces of information I think.

Personally I think that if Origi gets the same number of chances compared to Werner he will finish more. An opinion. Not a statistic.

Agree, both are relevant pieces of info. I'm not entirely sure where to get these though (without physically calculating them myself!).

Origi better than Werner............🤣🤣🤣

2 hours ago, ashwin said:

Agree, both are relevant pieces of info. I'm not entirely sure where to get these though (without physically calculating them myself!).

From fbref.com:

				Playing Time							Performance					Per 90 Minutes				Expected
Player	Span	Nation	Pos	Squad	MP	Starts	Min	90s	Gls	Ast	G-PK	PK	PKatt	CrdY	CrdR	Gls	Ast	G+A	G-PK	G+A-PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+xA	xG	xA	xG+xA	npxG	npxG+xA
Divock Origi	2018-19	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	12	4	371	4.1	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	0.73	0.24	0.97	0.73	0.97	2.1	2.1	0.2	2.2	0.51	0.04	0.54	0.51	0.54
Divock Origi	2019-20	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	28	7	717	8.0	4	1	4	0	0	1	0	0.50	0.13	0.63	0.50	0.63	2.2	2.2	0.2	2.4	0.28	0.03	0.30	0.28	0.30
Divock Origi	2021-22	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	2	0	18	0.2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.88	0.00	0.88	0.88	0.88
Timo Werner	2020-21	de GER	FW	Chelsea	35	29	2,602	28.9	6	8	6	0	0	2	0	0.21	0.28	0.48	0.21	0.48	11.9	11.9	6.1	18.0	0.41	0.21	0.62	0.41	0.62
Timo Werner	2021-22	de GER	FW	Chelsea	7	4	391	4.3	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.23	0.23	0.46	0.23	0.46	2.2	2.2	0.2	2.4	0.52	0.04	0.56	0.52	0.5

The third column (Goals/Assists per 90) is most relevant. This comparison is a little difficult to due to Werner only being here two seasons and Origi only playing a paltry 181 minutes in 2020-21.

I don't think you can conclude beyond all doubt that Origi is a better finisher than Werner, but the numbers certainly suggest he maintains a comparable contribution per 90 despite a much lesser squad role. That's less evidence that Origi is good and more a damning indictment on Chelsea/Werner, especially relative to his role in the team and our expectations.

Effectively, Liverpool are able to get a similar contribution from a bit-part player as we can get from one of our main strikers, while Chelsea seem to have extremely low expectations for Werner.

Edited November 9, 20214 yr by SydneyChelsea

1 hour ago, SydneyChelsea said:

From fbref.com:

				Playing Time							Performance					Per 90 Minutes				Expected
Player	Span	Nation	Pos	Squad	MP	Starts	Min	90s	Gls	Ast	G-PK	PK	PKatt	CrdY	CrdR	Gls	Ast	G+A	G-PK	G+A-PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+xA	xG	xA	xG+xA	npxG	npxG+xA
Divock Origi	2018-19	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	12	4	371	4.1	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	0.73	0.24	0.97	0.73	0.97	2.1	2.1	0.2	2.2	0.51	0.04	0.54	0.51	0.54
Divock Origi	2019-20	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	28	7	717	8.0	4	1	4	0	0	1	0	0.50	0.13	0.63	0.50	0.63	2.2	2.2	0.2	2.4	0.28	0.03	0.30	0.28	0.30
Divock Origi	2021-22	be BEL	FW	Liverpool	2	0	18	0.2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.88	0.00	0.88	0.88	0.88
Timo Werner	2020-21	de GER	FW	Chelsea	35	29	2,602	28.9	6	8	6	0	0	2	0	0.21	0.28	0.48	0.21	0.48	11.9	11.9	6.1	18.0	0.41	0.21	0.62	0.41	0.62
Timo Werner	2021-22	de GER	FW	Chelsea	7	4	391	4.3	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.23	0.23	0.46	0.23	0.46	2.2	2.2	0.2	2.4	0.52	0.04	0.56	0.52	0.5

The third column (Goals/Assists per 90) is most relevant. This comparison is a little difficult to due to Werner only being here two seasons and Origi only playing a paltry 181 minutes in 2020-21.

I don't think you can conclude beyond all doubt that Origi is a better finisher than Werner, but the numbers certainly suggest he maintains a comparable contribution per 90 despite a much lesser squad role. That's less evidence that Origi is good and more a damning indictment on Chelsea/Werner, especially relative to his role in the team and our expectations.

Effectively, Liverpool are able to get a similar contribution from a bit-part player as we can get from one of our main strikers, while Chelsea seem to have extremely low expectations for Werner.

Any reason you haven't included 20/21 for Origi where he did not score a single PL goal? Or CL? Or FA Cup?

Anyway, there's a glaring issue here which is what are the games Origi is played in? In 19/20 when they won the title, he scored in the first game and the last game (a dead rubber) and just one in between. He scored in a 4-1 over Norwich, a 5-2 over Everton and a 3-1 over Newcastle. Origi's sample size from 19/20 to now is just 4 games with goals, none of these contributions decisive.

Unlike Liverpool for Origi, Chelsea have expectations from Werner that go beyond scoring goals (he should be doing that much better of course). There's a reason Werner starts CL finals and Origi barely features for Liverpool.

Do you really think Werner's contributions are encapsulated in this table? I'm amazed. "Effectively, Liverpool are able to get a similar contribution from a bit-part player as we can get from one of our main strikers, while Chelsea seem to have extremely low expectations for Werner." Origi's most certainly are because he offers nothing else tactically.

11 hours ago, just said:

 

Personally I think that if Origi gets the same number of chances compared to Werner he will finish more. An opinion. Not a statistic.

I agree, but will they get the same number of chances though? Because the most important skill for a st is ability to get chances. 

Quote

City and Liverpool are being investigated by the PL for doing their warm downs whilst the games are still in progress at Old Trafford.

 

16 hours ago, ashwin said:

Any reason you haven't included 20/21 for Origi where he did not score a single PL goal? Or CL? Or FA Cup?

Anyway, there's a glaring issue here which is what are the games Origi is played in? In 19/20 when they won the title, he scored in the first game and the last game (a dead rubber) and just one in between. He scored in a 4-1 over Norwich, a 5-2 over Everton and a 3-1 over Newcastle. Origi's sample size from 19/20 to now is just 4 games with goals, none of these contributions decisive.

Unlike Liverpool for Origi, Chelsea have expectations from Werner that go beyond scoring goals (he should be doing that much better of course). There's a reason Werner starts CL finals and Origi barely features for Liverpool.

Do you really think Werner's contributions are encapsulated in this table? I'm amazed. "Effectively, Liverpool are able to get a similar contribution from a bit-part player as we can get from one of our main strikers, while Chelsea seem to have extremely low expectations for Werner." Origi's most certainly are because he offers nothing else tactically.

I didn't include that season simply because it is clearly an outlier season (Origi played a paltry 181 minutes in 9 games), same as I avoided including Werner's seasons at Leipzig. The data absolutely does not suggest that Origi is better than Werner!

My worry is that the numbers provide context to show that given ample playing time, Werner's contributions are more aligned with a role player than a starting forward. 

One issue I have with the bolded point above is that it seems revisionist. It's a popular narrative in Chelsea fan circles but I'm not sure it's justified. We didn't pay £53m for a role player, we paid that because we thought Werner would be a 20+ goal a season forward.

Now Werner instead has proven to be an effective tactical piece in the Champions League, crucial to our success there. In the league, especially against teams that defended happily with a low-block, his tactical niche was negated and we saw that in the disastrous run towards the end of the campaign and under Lampard. He made a contribution, granted, but it seems like fitting our expectations to match Werner's performances rather than admit that Werner's performances have failed to meet expectations.

Here are some more numbers for your entertainment:

					Play	Play	Play	Play	Per	Per	Per	Per	Per
Player	Span	Nation	Pos	Squad	MP	Starts	Min	90s	Gls	Ast	G+A	G-PK	G+A-PK
Timo Werner	2020-21 to 2021-22	de GER	FW	Chelsea	42	33	2,993	33.3	0.21	0.27	0.48	0.21	0.48
Gabriel Jesus	2017-18 to 2021-22	br BRA	FW	Manchester City	131	79	7,563	84.0	0.54	0.26	0.80	0.52	0.79
Michail Antonio	2018-19 to 2021-22	jm JAM	FW	West Ham	93	75	6,740	74.9	0.43	0.20	0.63	0.41	0.61
Alexandre Lacazette	2017-18 to 2021-22	fr FRA	MF,FW	Arsenal	134	100	8,768	97.4	0.52	0.18	0.71	0.47	0.66
Sadio Mané	2016-17 to 2021-22	sn SEN	FW	Liverpool	173	161	13,973	155.3	0.52	0.17	0.69	0.52	0.69
Willian	2016-17 to 2018-19	br BRA	FW,MF	Chelsea	102	61	5,521	61.3	0.28	0.24	0.52	0.26	0.51

Werner's numbers are closer to Willian than comparable forwards. All of these players have "pace to stretch the backline" and utilise a high-press so it's difficult to argue that they are not capable of the same tactical role as Werner.  Keep in mind this list excludes the likes of Aubameyang, Vardy, Salah etc and includes Lacazette who isn't even liked by his own fans!

Werner was bought to be an upgrade on the likes of Willian and Pedro. At best, we can say he's at least achieved their level, but there is so little evidence to show he can improve beyond that.

54 minutes ago, SydneyChelsea said:

I didn't include that season simply because it is clearly an outlier season (Origi played a paltry 181 minutes in 9 games), same as I avoided including Werner's seasons at Leipzig. The data absolutely does not suggest that Origi is better than Werner!

My worry is that the numbers provide context to show that given ample playing time, Werner's contributions are more aligned with a role player than a starting forward. 

One issue I have with the bolded point above is that it seems revisionist. It's a popular narrative in Chelsea fan circles but I'm not sure it's justified. We didn't pay £53m for a role player, we paid that because we thought Werner would be a 20+ goal a season forward.

Now Werner instead has proven to be an effective tactical piece in the Champions League, crucial to our success there. In the league, especially against teams that defended happily with a low-block, his tactical niche was negated and we saw that in the disastrous run towards the end of the campaign and under Lampard. He made a contribution, granted, but it seems like fitting our expectations to match Werner's performances rather than admit that Werner's performances have failed to meet expectations.

Here are some more numbers for your entertainment:

					Play	Play	Play	Play	Per	Per	Per	Per	Per
Player	Span	Nation	Pos	Squad	MP	Starts	Min	90s	Gls	Ast	G+A	G-PK	G+A-PK
Timo Werner	2020-21 to 2021-22	de GER	FW	Chelsea	42	33	2,993	33.3	0.21	0.27	0.48	0.21	0.48
Gabriel Jesus	2017-18 to 2021-22	br BRA	FW	Manchester City	131	79	7,563	84.0	0.54	0.26	0.80	0.52	0.79
Michail Antonio	2018-19 to 2021-22	jm JAM	FW	West Ham	93	75	6,740	74.9	0.43	0.20	0.63	0.41	0.61
Alexandre Lacazette	2017-18 to 2021-22	fr FRA	MF,FW	Arsenal	134	100	8,768	97.4	0.52	0.18	0.71	0.47	0.66
Sadio Mané	2016-17 to 2021-22	sn SEN	FW	Liverpool	173	161	13,973	155.3	0.52	0.17	0.69	0.52	0.69
Willian	2016-17 to 2018-19	br BRA	FW,MF	Chelsea	102	61	5,521	61.3	0.28	0.24	0.52	0.26	0.51

Werner's numbers are closer to Willian than comparable forwards. All of these players have "pace to stretch the backline" and utilise a high-press so it's difficult to argue that they are not capable of the same tactical role as Werner.  Keep in mind this list excludes the likes of Aubameyang, Vardy, Salah etc and includes Lacazette who isn't even liked by his own fans!

Werner was bought to be an upgrade on the likes of Willian and Pedro. At best, we can say he's at least achieved their level, but there is so little evidence to show he can improve beyond that.

As someone who was not a fan of his, I would have to say, so far, I would rather have Willian back than Werner as Willian was vastly better than Timo imo. 

Both are useless as goalscorers for us, both work their socks off most of the time, both had/have pace to burn, but willian was light-years ahead in terms of link up play and technique.

Is there anybody here that follow Bundesliga year in and year out? 

1 hour ago, axman2526 said:

As someone who was not a fan of his, I would have to say, so far, I would rather have Willian back than Werner as Willian was vastly better than Timo imo. 

Both are useless as goalscorers for us, both work their socks off most of the time, both had/have pace to burn, but willian was light-years ahead in terms of link up play and technique.

I that is harsh on timo, Willian and Timor are completely different player. A better question is do you prefer werner or pedro? 

2 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

I didn't include that season simply because it is clearly an outlier season (Origi played a paltry 181 minutes in 9 games), same as I avoided including Werner's seasons at Leipzig. The data absolutely does not suggest that Origi is better than Werner!

My worry is that the numbers provide context to show that given ample playing time, Werner's contributions are more aligned with a role player than a starting forward. 

One issue I have with the bolded point above is that it seems revisionist. It's a popular narrative in Chelsea fan circles but I'm not sure it's justified. We didn't pay £53m for a role player, we paid that because we thought Werner would be a 20+ goal a season forward.

Now Werner instead has proven to be an effective tactical piece in the Champions League, crucial to our success there. In the league, especially against teams that defended happily with a low-block, his tactical niche was negated and we saw that in the disastrous run towards the end of the campaign and under Lampard. He made a contribution, granted, but it seems like fitting our expectations to match Werner's performances rather than admit that Werner's performances have failed to meet expectations.

Here are some more numbers for your entertainment:

					Play	Play	Play	Play	Per	Per	Per	Per	Per
Player	Span	Nation	Pos	Squad	MP	Starts	Min	90s	Gls	Ast	G+A	G-PK	G+A-PK
Timo Werner	2020-21 to 2021-22	de GER	FW	Chelsea	42	33	2,993	33.3	0.21	0.27	0.48	0.21	0.48
Gabriel Jesus	2017-18 to 2021-22	br BRA	FW	Manchester City	131	79	7,563	84.0	0.54	0.26	0.80	0.52	0.79
Michail Antonio	2018-19 to 2021-22	jm JAM	FW	West Ham	93	75	6,740	74.9	0.43	0.20	0.63	0.41	0.61
Alexandre Lacazette	2017-18 to 2021-22	fr FRA	MF,FW	Arsenal	134	100	8,768	97.4	0.52	0.18	0.71	0.47	0.66
Sadio Mané	2016-17 to 2021-22	sn SEN	FW	Liverpool	173	161	13,973	155.3	0.52	0.17	0.69	0.52	0.69
Willian	2016-17 to 2018-19	br BRA	FW,MF	Chelsea	102	61	5,521	61.3	0.28	0.24	0.52	0.26	0.51

Werner's numbers are closer to Willian than comparable forwards. All of these players have "pace to stretch the backline" and utilise a high-press so it's difficult to argue that they are not capable of the same tactical role as Werner.  Keep in mind this list excludes the likes of Aubameyang, Vardy, Salah etc and includes Lacazette who isn't even liked by his own fans!

Werner was bought to be an upgrade on the likes of Willian and Pedro. At best, we can say he's at least achieved their level, but there is so little evidence to show he can improve beyond that.

Don't disagree with any of that. Werner's numbers are way below par and he was bought to do much much better. But that said, I wouldn't take any of the others above him because his movement, workrate and general game sense are fantastic assets for any team to have (Mane and a prime Pedro are of course way better but certainly not a prime Willian).

My disagreement was with inferring that Origi has been more effective than Werner given the presented stats.

 

39 minutes ago, Bob stark said:

I that is harsh on timo, Willian and Timor are completely different player. A better question is do you prefer werner or pedro? 

Not even a question for me. Unlike Willian I thought Pedro was great and always put in a shift. He was also a real goal threat. So Pedro every day of the week for me.

Edited November 10, 20214 yr by axman2526

10 minutes ago, ashwin said:

Don't disagree with any of that. Werner's numbers are way below par and he was bought to do much much better. But that said, I wouldn't take any of the others above him because his movement, workrate and general game sense are fantastic assets for any team to have (Mane and a prime Pedro are of course way better but certainly not a prime Willian).

My disagreement was with inferring that Origi has been more effective than Werner given the presented stats.

 

You must be joking? Prime Willian with us was banging in free kicks and ripping teams apart on his own. 

I mean it happened for like half a season of course but still. First touch and passing light-years ahead of Werner.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/nov/09/aston-villa-want-steven-gerrard-next-manager-plan-rangers-approach

Good work Villa. That'll keep the 'slipped on his f**king arse' song alive for another couple of years.

4 hours ago, axman2526 said:

Not even a question for me. Unlike Willian I thought Pedro was great and always put in a shift. He was also a real goal threat. So Pedro every day of the week for me.

I personally put pedro and Willian in the same tier. Both offer the same  great defensive contribution but different stuff offensively. 

It is difficult to judge Timo because he is  very2 limited player. What he offer, he is very2 good outside of that, he is a nightmare. 

 

 

 

On 08/11/2021 at 19:10, PloKoon13 said:

Interesting. Looks like Emenalo may become Newcastle's new Director of Football. Smart decision, my hopes of Newcastle 'pulling a QPR' are fading by the second...

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/nov/08/newcastle-confirm-appointment-of-eddie-howe-as-new-manager

Didn't he do pretty badly at Monaco after leaving Chelsea? He's been out of a job in football for a couple of years now so remains to be seen if he can recreate what he did for us almost 10 years ago. 

He put a lot more emphasis on our scouting network which led to signings such as Lukaku, Courtois, De Bruyne but that was long after Roman had already established a club "identity". 

The Newcastle job is whole different beast. He'll have to set most things up almost from scratch.... but I suppose he's as good a name as anyone to try. 

On 08/11/2021 at 19:42, strider6004 said:

Thinking more about that Cresswell challenge as seen a lot of shots and commentary.

I now think he should have gone, when he makes the initial challenge one leg is on the ground, I'm guessing after the initial challenge he adjusts his boy and lunges in two footed with studs up on Henderson knee.

It must take take some clever footwork to pull that off yet a Red for me.

When we play WHU we will need to watch those corners Ogbonna waving his hands naturally high in front of the keeper and Antonio leaning in from the rear.

I agreed it wasn't a red personally.

When Cresswell makes the initial challenge he doesn't go in studs up. His foot rolls up the ball, over the top and then makes contact with Henderson. 

No doubt a painful one but I think it's hard for VAR or the ref to justify dangerous play. 

Looks like Gerrard is the new manager at Aston Villa.
He's done very well at Rangers tbf.

19 hours ago, axman2526 said:

As someone who was not a fan of his, I would have to say, so far, I would rather have Willian back than Werner as Willian was vastly better than Timo imo. 

Both are useless as goalscorers for us, both work their socks off most of the time, both had/have pace to burn, but willian was light-years ahead in terms of link up play and technique.

Honestly @ashwin and I set this whole thread up just to see you admit that

21 hours ago, axman2526 said:

As someone who was not a fan of his, I would have to say, so far, I would rather have Willian back than Werner as Willian was vastly better than Timo imo. 

Both are useless as goalscorers for us, both work their socks off most of the time, both had/have pace to burn, but willian was light-years ahead in terms of link up play and technique.

Willian had like 3 months of purple patch every single season (excluding that crazy 15/16 season). When he wasn't in form, and that was majority of the time, he was pretty much useless. Conte has preferred Pedro for a reason.

3 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Honestly @ashwin and I set this whole thread up just to see you admit that

@yorkleyblue put you up to it then lol

1 hour ago, wizardous said:

Willian had like 3 months of purple patch every single season (excluding that crazy 15/16 season). When he wasn't in form, and that was majority of the time, he was pretty much useless. Conte has preferred Pedro for a reason.

Not disagreeing with that at all, Pedro was a vastly more useful player.

4 hours ago, wizardous said:

Willian had like 3 months of purple patch every single season (excluding that crazy 15/16 season). When he wasn't in form, and that was majority of the time, he was pretty much useless. Conte has preferred Pedro for a reason.

Conte wanted his winger to play more like a forward and that is not Willian game. 

Willian was very2 good for us. People forget that we looked better in Lampard 1st season compare to his 2nd season, that with addition of Chilwell + Mendy + Thiago. Willian ability to keep the ball high and dribble from deep are very2 close to wc. 

Gerrard got the Villa job, I think JT or Lamps should go for the Rangers job now.