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Awkward Season 4 GIF by The Office

Aaanyway there is this nice thread on twitter so I simply borrowed some material from someone named FutbolKhan Omar, or whatever... It's about some sTatz in comparison to the rest of our frontline that might just indicate the CHO is going to explode in this upcoming season given that he with limited minutes managed to have a pretty decent look per 90':

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E7PmhZ-XIAsdb3B?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmxYRXEAwPaNR?format=jpg&name=large

 

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Time to press on this season.  I don't doubt his ability; he just needs to match that with mental determination and hard work.  So many training videos of him and his touch/control is incredible at times.  Push on - be a difference maker.

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1 hour ago, Gol15 said:

Awkward Season 4 GIF by The Office

Aaanyway there is this nice thread on twitter so I simply borrowed some material from someone named FutbolKhan Omar, or whatever... It's about some sTatz in comparison to the rest of our frontline that might just indicate the CHO is going to explode in this upcoming season given that he with limited minutes managed to have a pretty decent look per 90':

E7PlttYWYAYx6NI?format=jpg&name=large

E7Pl3qeXIAMKt7R?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmIUwX0AI_t_G?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmaC1X0AI7FdC?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmhZ-XIAsdb3B?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmxYRXEAwPaNR?format=jpg&name=large

 

He is a victim of not being a €50m signing. Highest output per min but still somehow the last option

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4 hours ago, Gol15 said:

Awkward Season 4 GIF by The Office

Aaanyway there is this nice thread on twitter so I simply borrowed some material from someone named FutbolKhan Omar, or whatever... It's about some sTatz in comparison to the rest of our frontline that might just indicate the CHO is going to explode in this upcoming season given that he with limited minutes managed to have a pretty decent look per 90':

E7PlttYWYAYx6NI?format=jpg&name=large

E7Pl3qeXIAMKt7R?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmIUwX0AI_t_G?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmaC1X0AI7FdC?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmhZ-XIAsdb3B?format=jpg&name=large

E7PmxYRXEAwPaNR?format=jpg&name=large

 

If anything, from these stats you can take that the less minutes you play the better your stats will look, as Ziyech is also up there with him and he's been average bar in a couple of games. I'm sure someone can take a stat to show how these stats are biased by the game time. And I'm not having a dig at CHO, whom I like and I think has a high ceiling, it's more a dig at this kind of stats that are completely uncorrected.

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Some nice graphs and numbers there @Gol15 so I wanted to take a closer look. I like to look at data in context, so I wanted to compare Hudson-Odoi's data to the benchmarks in the league, as well as similar players (eg Saka, and our other wingbacks) to get an idea of what is exceptional and what is just ordinary in this league.

The tl;dr summary is:

  • Leads the team in quantity of passes/crosses but his xA accurately predicted his output, and it is quite low (0.25 assists per 90 mins) which suggests there are questions over the quality of his output. In other words, he's putting a lot of balls into the box, but the low xA suggests they aren't always in good areas for the recipient. Top attackers in the league have an xA over 0.30 per 90 mins; our closest player is Ziyech with 0.28.
     
  • His numbers compare very favourably to top wingbacks/fullbacks (eg Alexander-Arnold, Cancelo) but are merely decent for wingers/attacking midfielders. As a wingback, he tends to receive the ball in space far more often, whereas as an attacking midfielder he is required to receive the ball and make plays in much tighter areas. How much do the tactical differences influence his output?
  • GCA/SCA are very nebulous stats that attempt to quantify the 'creativity' of a player but their validity (in the data science sense) is difficult to establish, as they are based on the last two plays leading to a goal or shot. For example:
    • If Hudson-Odoi splits the defence for Werner to cross the ball to Mount for a tap-in, all three are awarded a Goal Creating Action (GCA)
    • If Thiago Silva passes the ball 5 yards to Jorginho, who plays a through-ball to Werner, all three are awarded a GCA
    • This means that the stat can be useful for midfielders and attackers, but less useful if the player is a defender. It's possible that Hudson-Odoi's time at WB could majorly inflate this.
       
  • The GCA/SCA graph posted merely suggests that if Hudson-Odoi is involved in a move, it's likely to lead to a goal. Without accounting for game state, or the quality of opposition, there's not a lot we can glean from this especially because of the above.
     
  • The progressive carries data is interesting. This is a stat that looks at how many times the player carries the ball towards the opposition goal; again, this is heavily influenced by position and tactics. Hudson-Odoi is actually exceptional even for a fullback/wingback, and this probably shows where his tactical value to Tuchel lies.
     
  • The dribbling graph is somewhat misleading as it doesn't take into account position/tactics. Statistically, defenders + midfielders will always have better dribble percentages than any attacker because they are moving the ball in a less congested, less pressed part of the field. The only out-and-out attacker who appears in the top 30 EPL players for dribbling % is Bernardo Silva! That explains the lopsided nature of the graph. Hudson-Odoi (53.6%) still rates as pretty good for wingbacks/fullbacks in the EPL, but pales in comparison to Reece James (75%!) - that suggests we can't read too much into this once we account for position/role.


The data confirms his potential but we all know that. It's telling that some of his statistics are 'inflated' by position - if we were to look at it really harshly, the data might suggest that he could be an average winger, but a world-class wingback. However, that really just relegates him to being football's next Victor Moses, not the electric winger we all want him to be, and assumes he has no room to improve.

I think this season is where he has to really push himself to demonstrate he can be a top-tier attacking midfielder because otherwise his career will be a footnote as an 'interesting tactical solution'.
 

Edited by SydneyChelsea
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4 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:
  • Leads the team in quantity of passes/crosses but his xA accurately predicted his output, and it is quite low (0.25 assists per 90 mins) which suggests there are questions over the quality of his output. In other words, he's putting a lot of balls into the box, but the low xA suggests they aren't always in good areas for the recipient. Top attackers in the league have an xA over 0.30 per 90 mins; our closest player is Ziyech with 0.28.

Could the low xA not be just as much due to the striker being in a poor position? Which wouldn't be surprising at all with Werner last season.

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18 hours ago, Paddy said:

Oh dear, how disappointing!

Ordinarily , I wouldn’t respond to your argument, it’s futile , but you’ve accused me of something that I hadn’t done - I didn’t swear at you and to say that I did defames my character.

In case you don’t fully comprehend English enough to understand the nuances, let me give you an example; if I had said to you that you can continue to keep your f**king head up your arse as far as cho’s abilities are concerned you thick opinionated c**t - that would be me swearing directly at you and in such an instance you could call me out for having sworn at you but I didn’t , so don’t !

Finally, the way you carry on about odoi suggests that he is being victimised by successive managers in not being picked , when you should really be wondering “why doesn’t he get picked?” - putting all the conspiracy theories to one side , hmmmmmm, what could it be ???????? and bringing him on for the last 10 minutes is called ‘a Hail Mary’, ‘a shot to nothing’, ‘a last roll of the dice’ or as most people realise , shear desperation.

The last word, should you choose, is yours, I shan’t be responding further.

 

Had chance to look back through your other posts on this thread. To me, it seems like you have something against him due to the contract he has. Making several comments about how he'll just sit back and keep accepting his £120k a week. Seems like he's getting the Sterling/Rashford treatment of being a high earning black male that many take issue with. Doesn't seem to be as much outcry against Pulisic earning more and putting in even worse performances. Such a pity.

I'm sure you'll just reply with plenty of exclamation marks and what if arguments though. 

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9 minutes ago, RIP Mourinho said:

Had chance to look back through your other posts on this thread. To me, it seems like you have something against him due to the contract he has. Making several comments about how he'll just sit back and keep accepting his £120k a week. Seems like he's getting the Sterling/Rashford treatment of being a high earning black male that many take issue with. Doesn't seem to be as much outcry against Pulisic earning more and putting in even worse performances. Such a pity.

I'm sure you'll just reply with plenty of exclamation marks and what if arguments though. 

The wage argument is actually flawed but I reckon fan don’t get it. We are paying him what we are because Bayern tabled offers for him, which we rejected, and offered him a contract to keep him. If PSG were to table an offer for Mount tomorrow, and the club was to decline it, they will also call him and his agents to the table and offer him an improved contract.

It isn’t CHO’s fault we keep rejecting offers, and not investing enough game time into his development. 

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5 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Some nice graphs and numbers there @Gol15 so I wanted to take a closer look. I like to look at data in context, so I wanted to compare Hudson-Odoi's data to the benchmarks in the league, as well as similar players (eg Saka, and our other wingbacks) to get an idea of what is exceptional and what is just ordinary in this league.

The tl;dr summary is:

  • Leads the team in quantity of passes/crosses but his xA accurately predicted his output, and it is quite low (0.25 assists per 90 mins) which suggests there are questions over the quality of his output. In other words, he's putting a lot of balls into the box, but the low xA suggests they aren't always in good areas for the recipient. Top attackers in the league have an xA over 0.30 per 90 mins; our closest player is Ziyech with 0.28.
     
  • His numbers compare very favourably to top wingbacks/fullbacks (eg Alexander-Arnold, Cancelo) but are merely decent for wingers/attacking midfielders. As a wingback, he tends to receive the ball in space far more often, whereas as an attacking midfielder he is required to receive the ball and make plays in much tighter areas. How much do the tactical differences influence his output?
  • GCA/SCA are very nebulous stats that attempt to quantify the 'creativity' of a player but their validity (in the data science sense) is difficult to establish, as they are based on the last two plays leading to a goal or shot. For example:
    • If Hudson-Odoi splits the defence for Werner to cross the ball to Mount for a tap-in, all three are awarded a Goal Creating Action (GCA)
    • If Thiago Silva passes the ball 5 yards to Jorginho, who plays a through-ball to Werner, all three are awarded a GCA
    • This means that the stat can be useful for midfielders and attackers, but less useful if the player is a defender. It's possible that Hudson-Odoi's time at WB could majorly inflate this.
       
  • The GCA/SCA graph posted merely suggests that if Hudson-Odoi is involved in a move, it's likely to lead to a goal. Without accounting for game state, or the quality of opposition, there's not a lot we can glean from this especially because of the above.
     
  • The progressive carries data is interesting. This is a stat that looks at how many times the player carries the ball towards the opposition goal; again, this is heavily influenced by position and tactics. Hudson-Odoi is actually exceptional even for a fullback/wingback, and this probably shows where his tactical value to Tuchel lies.
     
  • The dribbling graph is somewhat misleading as it doesn't take into account position/tactics. Statistically, defenders + midfielders will always have better dribble percentages than any attacker because they are moving the ball in a less congested, less pressed part of the field. The only out-and-out attacker who appears in the top 30 EPL players for dribbling % is Bernardo Silva! That explains the lopsided nature of the graph. Hudson-Odoi (53.6%) still rates as pretty good for wingbacks/fullbacks in the EPL, but pales in comparison to Reece James (75%!) - that suggests we can't read too much into this once we account for position/role.


The data confirms his potential but we all know that. It's telling that some of his statistics are 'inflated' by position - if we were to look at it really harshly, the data might suggest that he could be an average winger, but a world-class wingback. However, that really just relegates him to being football's next Victor Moses, not the electric winger we all want him to be, and assumes he has no room to improve.

I think this season is where he has to really push himself to demonstrate he can be a top-tier attacking midfielder because otherwise his career will be a footnote as an 'interesting tactical solution'.
 

Good post... Hope he finds that something extra this season.

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56 minutes ago, RIP Mourinho said:

Could the low xA not be just as much due to the striker being in a poor position? Which wouldn't be surprising at all with Werner last season.

Absolutely. 

FB Ref define their xA as the "xG that follows a pass" - ie the xG of where the receiving player takes his shot. So when Callum passes to a player, they are likely to recieve the ball in a position where the average player only has a 26% chance of scoring. Given he's one of the better players on that stat, it's a decent indictment for the whole team.

The stat doesn't account for a situation where a pass/cross is made and no one makes a shot. When you think of how many crosses/square-balls Chilwell, James and Hudson-Odoi have ripped across the box with no one nearby, it's even more depressing.

To mind that's showing a worst-case scenario where our creating players are creating poor quality chances, and our finishing players are not getting in the right areas or don't have the right skillset to make the most of the chances.

Edit: This video of Ziyech illustrates a bit what we're talking about. Most of the chances shown in the first part of the videl would not be counted by any attacking statistic, since they don't result in any shot. Yet they are obviously quality passes and if we had someone with Drogba's ability to finish at the back stick, he'd be unstoppable!

Edited by SydneyChelsea
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1 hour ago, RIP Mourinho said:

Had chance to look back through your other posts on this thread. To me, it seems like you have something against him due to the contract he has. Making several comments about how he'll just sit back and keep accepting his £120k a week. Seems like he's getting the Sterling/Rashford treatment of being a high earning black male that many take issue with. Doesn't seem to be as much outcry against Pulisic earning more and putting in even worse performances. Such a pity.

I'm sure you'll just reply with plenty of exclamation marks and what if arguments though. 

Why have you introduced colour into this,  I never have? Not only have you falsely accused me of swearing at you, you now seem to be suggesting that there is some racist bent in my criticism of the player. You need to be very careful with what you put into print, you shouldn’t be allowed to make such insinuations and I would expect the moderators to acknowledge this and act accordingly …….let’s see? 

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12 hours ago, RMH said:

If anything, from these stats you can take that the less minutes you play the better your stats will look, as Ziyech is also up there with him and he's been average bar in a couple of games. I'm sure someone can take a stat to show how these stats are biased by the game time. And I'm not having a dig at CHO, whom I like and I think has a high ceiling, it's more a dig at this kind of stats that are completely uncorrected.

The point is that he should be given a chance, the more you play him the more he would blend stat wise with the rest per 90' but at the same time he would get better and better.

Ziyech was a bit underwhelming but he is a top passer that always looks to get the ball forward that's what he does, CHO has a more direct approach like Ziyech but he also isn't afraid to carry the ball forward and with time he will get back the confidence to use his pace once again and then he could end up taking on players better than Pulisic if he really has a higher ceiling than him.

Keep in mind that Mount needed a full season of trust and patience and that CHO is 20 years old, it would have been much easier for him had he went to Bundesliga like Sancho because the PL is more tough and it's harder to get the minutes but then we wouldn't have such a talent.

Edited by Gol15
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2 hours ago, Paddy said:

Why have you introduced colour into this,  I never have? Not only have you falsely accused me of swearing at you, you now seem to be suggesting that there is some racist bent in my criticism of the player. You need to be very careful with what you put into print, you shouldn’t be allowed to make such insinuations and I would expect the moderators to acknowledge this and act accordingly …….let’s see? 

Crying to the admins after your telling off earlier? Shame.

I've merely said things as i see them.

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9 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

The data confirms his potential but we all know that. It's telling that some of his statistics are 'inflated' by position - if we were to look at it really harshly, the data might suggest that he could be an average winger, but a world-class wingback. However, that really just relegates him to being football's next Victor Moses, not the electric winger we all want him to be, and assumes he has no room to improve.

I think this season is where he has to really push himself to demonstrate he can be a top-tier attacking midfielder because otherwise his career will be a footnote as an 'interesting tactical solution'.
 

This is a statement of his ability to adapt to a new manager that asked him to play as a wing back but I have no doubt that he can challenge Pulisic for the spot as a winger and even Werner as an attacker. We'll see how will Tuchel play.

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3 hours ago, Gol15 said:

This is a statement of his ability to adapt to a new manager that asked him to play as a wing back but I have no doubt that he can challenge Pulisic for the spot as a winger and even Werner as an attacker. We'll see how will Tuchel play.

Maybe, but we also need to understand that wing-back has different requirements and in many ways is an 'easier' role.  

The numbers don't quite suggest he is performing exceptionally as an attacking midfielder/winger, because of the inflation above caused by position.

This season he is at a crossroads; right now he is merely an average attacker at best, or he can pivot to a tactical niche that suits his skillset well but doesn't really do much for his overall quality as a player. I really want to see him kick on as an attacking midfielder as I think he will be relegated to an afterthought as a wing-back.

At the end of the day though, he's 20. There is a long way to go before we should make any definitive conclusions about him.

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18 minutes ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Maybe, but we also need to understand that wing-back has different requirements and in many ways is an 'easier' role.  

The numbers don't quite suggest he is performing exceptionally as an attacking midfielder/winger, because of the inflation above caused by position.

This season he is at a crossroads; right now he is merely an average attacker at best, or he can pivot to a tactical niche that suits his skillset well but doesn't really do much for his overall quality as a player. I really want to see him kick on as an attacking midfielder as I think he will be relegated to an afterthought as a wing-back.

At the end of the day though, he's 20. There is a long way to go before we should make any definitive conclusions about him.

Maybe the way to go is what was done with Saka, keep switching him between both until something clicks. Personally i think he should be ahead of Pulisic but that's an argument for another day.

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57 minutes ago, Argo said:

Maybe the way to go is what was done with Saka, keep switching him between both until something clicks. Personally i think he should be ahead of Pulisic but that's an argument for another day.

Things definitely have clicked for him at wingback, but it's a tactical niche. When Tuchel is sacked mid-season and we hire a manager who reverts to a back-four, Hudson-Odoi has nothing going for him.

No question he should be playing over Pulisic for me either, position or otherwise. 

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11 hours ago, Gol15 said:

The point is that he should be given a chance, the more you play him the more he would blend stat wise with the rest per 90' but at the same time he would get better and better.

Ziyech was a bit underwhelming but he is a top passer that always looks to get the ball forward that's what he does, CHO has a more direct approach like Ziyech but he also isn't afraid to carry the ball forward and with time he will get back the confidence to use his pace once again and then he could end up taking on players better than Pulisic if he really has a higher ceiling than him.

Keep in mind that Mount needed a full season of trust and patience and that CHO is 20 years old, it would have been much easier for him had he went to Bundesliga like Sancho because the PL is more tough and it's harder to get the minutes but then we wouldn't have such a talent.

I don't disagree with you, I think CHO can be very good for us and has shown quality at certain points. And I agree that he needs to play more regularly. It was just a comment about how it just amazes me the way stats are used by these random twitter guys, which are more a make up for their fav player than real stats with proper use and method behind. If Ziyech excels in these stats too, it's not a good thing, because he is a very good and creative player, but has done f*** all for us except in a couple of games. Everyone has seen that and no stats can change it. 

I don't think the comparison with Mount does any good either. Mount came back and from the start was a breath of fresh air and deserved to be played game in game out. In his first season in the first team he was a close POTY with Kova (who I think won it that season). CHO has shown moments of quality and I don't understand how he's been benched by our coaches so much, but I don't think that he works as hard and as cleverly as Mount when he is on the pitch (and maybe that's what the coaches see in training too ?).

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8 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Maybe, but we also need to understand that wing-back has different requirements and in many ways is an 'easier' role.  

The numbers don't quite suggest he is performing exceptionally as an attacking midfielder/winger, because of the inflation above caused by position.

This season he is at a crossroads; right now he is merely an average attacker at best, or he can pivot to a tactical niche that suits his skillset well but doesn't really do much for his overall quality as a player. I really want to see him kick on as an attacking midfielder as I think he will be relegated to an afterthought as a wing-back.

At the end of the day though, he's 20. There is a long way to go before we should make any definitive conclusions about him.

IMO with CHO is I don't think he is suited playing as one of the no 10 especially on the right. 

CHO want to run at player so he want to go outside and inside. But in Tuchel 343, the two am are narrow 10. I barely see any of the two 10 get the ball outside and attack player last season.

 

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On 27/07/2021 at 10:19, SydneyChelsea said:

Some nice graphs and numbers there @Gol15 so I wanted to take a closer look. I like to look at data in context, so I wanted to compare Hudson-Odoi's data to the benchmarks in the league, as well as similar players (eg Saka, and our other wingbacks) to get an idea of what is exceptional and what is just ordinary in this league.

The tl;dr summary is:

  • Leads the team in quantity of passes/crosses but his xA accurately predicted his output, and it is quite low (0.25 assists per 90 mins) which suggests there are questions over the quality of his output. In other words, he's putting a lot of balls into the box, but the low xA suggests they aren't always in good areas for the recipient. Top attackers in the league have an xA over 0.30 per 90 mins; our closest player is Ziyech with 0.28.
     
  • His numbers compare very favourably to top wingbacks/fullbacks (eg Alexander-Arnold, Cancelo) but are merely decent for wingers/attacking midfielders. As a wingback, he tends to receive the ball in space far more often, whereas as an attacking midfielder he is required to receive the ball and make plays in much tighter areas. How much do the tactical differences influence his output?
  • GCA/SCA are very nebulous stats that attempt to quantify the 'creativity' of a player but their validity (in the data science sense) is difficult to establish, as they are based on the last two plays leading to a goal or shot. For example:
    • If Hudson-Odoi splits the defence for Werner to cross the ball to Mount for a tap-in, all three are awarded a Goal Creating Action (GCA)
    • If Thiago Silva passes the ball 5 yards to Jorginho, who plays a through-ball to Werner, all three are awarded a GCA
    • This means that the stat can be useful for midfielders and attackers, but less useful if the player is a defender. It's possible that Hudson-Odoi's time at WB could majorly inflate this.
       
  • The GCA/SCA graph posted merely suggests that if Hudson-Odoi is involved in a move, it's likely to lead to a goal. Without accounting for game state, or the quality of opposition, there's not a lot we can glean from this especially because of the above.
     
  • The progressive carries data is interesting. This is a stat that looks at how many times the player carries the ball towards the opposition goal; again, this is heavily influenced by position and tactics. Hudson-Odoi is actually exceptional even for a fullback/wingback, and this probably shows where his tactical value to Tuchel lies.
     
  • The dribbling graph is somewhat misleading as it doesn't take into account position/tactics. Statistically, defenders + midfielders will always have better dribble percentages than any attacker because they are moving the ball in a less congested, less pressed part of the field. The only out-and-out attacker who appears in the top 30 EPL players for dribbling % is Bernardo Silva! That explains the lopsided nature of the graph. Hudson-Odoi (53.6%) still rates as pretty good for wingbacks/fullbacks in the EPL, but pales in comparison to Reece James (75%!) - that suggests we can't read too much into this once we account for position/role.


The data confirms his potential but we all know that. It's telling that some of his statistics are 'inflated' by position - if we were to look at it really harshly, the data might suggest that he could be an average winger, but a world-class wingback. However, that really just relegates him to being football's next Victor Moses, not the electric winger we all want him to be, and assumes he has no room to improve.

I think this season is where he has to really push himself to demonstrate he can be a top-tier attacking midfielder because otherwise his career will be a footnote as an 'interesting tactical solution'.
 

Mike smith trailer park boys GIF on GIFER - by Whiteshaper

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13 hours ago, Bob stark said:

IMO with CHO is I don't think he is suited playing as one of the no 10 especially on the right. 

CHO want to run at player so he want to go outside and inside. But in Tuchel 343, the two am are narrow 10. I barely see any of the two 10 get the ball outside and attack player last season.

 

Agree, same applies for Pulisic. They both lose the option of beating a player on the outside, because the wingbacks are the width providers in this system. They lose space to run at players, particularly when we dominate possession. It is a problem with this 3-atb system that leads to lower quality chances.

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11 hours ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Agree, same applies for Pulisic. They both lose the option of beating a player on the outside, because the wingbacks are the width providers in this system. They lose space to run at players, particularly when we dominate possession. It is a problem with this 3-atb system that leads to lower quality chances.

I personally want us to try

Cho/puli - Werner - Havertz 

Mount - Kante/Kova

Purely for selfish reason. I want to be entertained, man some of the football under Tuchel last season remind me of Sarri ball, absolute snooze fest. 

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I think this season will be his make or break. If he makes it through the season without getting any big injuries and gets his minutes, I expect a lot from him.. If he has a another underwhelming season or gets another big injury, then its time to move on from him

Edited by junkymunky
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