34 minutes ago, timetowaste said:

As crap as things are at the minute I think there's a lot of overreaction regarding the ownership. Obviously the situation we are in table wise is rubbish but I don't think there's much that needs tweaking until we are in a decent position again. As much as some people want to throw around 'clownlake and 'Ted lasso' these guys aren't gonna just chuck a £5bn investment in the bin and accept it, they've definitely made mistakes but I don't think anything they've done is irreparable.

The concern for me, and possibly others, which i confess comes from no statistical, analytical or reported knowledge, just logic, is that if we do fail this FFP bar:

• As i understand it we may have to sell some pure profit players by 30th June (in a Euros year) in a downturned market that knows we are sellers, in order to meet FFP requirements.
• If we fail to do that then i don't think we would be in the same situation Man City might possibly be in. If they are found guilty of some or all of the more serious offences then the implication is that there has been some form of fraudulent activity going on. If that is the case then it would be reasonable to expect that they would receive a Juventus level of punishment.
• Everton and Nottingham Forest however, if found guilty would have breached through incompetence/negligence and would probably have the 10 point deduction upheld with NF presumably getting similar treatment.
• If we are found guilty, it wouldn't be fraudulent, nor negligent, but it certainly wouldn't be innocent and would rank as a strategic ploy that had failed due to incorrect interpretation of the rules and allowances. WE have actually gone for this and publicly highlighted these apparent "loopholes" in the system, and then failed. Therefore i think it reasonable that our punishment could fall between the two other cases.
• Let's say we do fail and they give us a 20 point deduction, which we get reduced to 15 points on appeal.
• We are not making Europe this season at this rate. If we then have a 15 point deficit as a starting point next year Pochettino (if he is still here) will have to pull out a top 3 season just to make mid table again, so we could easily be looking at another two years minimum of no European football. Surely that wasn't in the Boehly/Clearlake playbook.

 

6 minutes ago, WhiteWall said:

The concern for me, and possibly others, which i confess comes from no statistical, analytical or reported knowledge, just logic, is that if we do fail this FFP bar:

• As i understand it we may have to sell some pure profit players by 30th June (in a Euros year) in a downturned market that knows we are sellers, in order to meet FFP requirements.
• If we fail to do that then i don't think we would be in the same situation Man City might possibly be in. If they are found guilty of some or all of the more serious offences then the implication is that there has been some form of fraudulent activity going on. If that is the case then it would be reasonable to expect that they would receive a Juventus level of punishment.
• Everton and Nottingham Forest however, if found guilty would have breached through incompetence/negligence and would probably have the 10 point deduction upheld with NF presumably getting similar treatment.
• If we are found guilty, it wouldn't be fraudulent, nor negligent, but it certainly wouldn't be innocent and would rank as a strategic ploy that had failed due to incorrect interpretation of the rules and allowances. WE have actually gone for this and publicly highlighted these apparent "loopholes" in the system, and then failed. Therefore i think it reasonable that our punishment could fall between the two other cases.
• Let's say we do fail and they give us a 20 point deduction, which we get reduced to 15 points on appeal.
• We are not making Europe this season at this rate. If we then have a 15 point deficit as a starting point next year Pochettino (if he is still here) will have to pull out a top 3 season just to make mid table again, so we could easily be looking at another two years minimum of no European football. Surely that wasn't in the Boehly/Clearlake playbook.

 

Why would it be 20 points? 

It feels like 10 is the benchmark. 

1 minute ago, bisright1 said:

Why would it be 20 points? 

It feels like 10 is the benchmark. 

Well, cos i kind of think it would be worse than just getting the accounts wrong (Everton/NF) and not as bad as a two division relegation (Juventus). As we have strategically gone for it and effectively publically took a strategic ploy to beat the principles, in then failing to do so feels like they would hurt us more than if we were just oafs and got the maths wrong.

That's my logical thinking anyway

13 minutes ago, WhiteWall said:

Well, cos i kind of think it would be worse than just getting the accounts wrong (Everton/NF) and not as bad as a two division relegation (Juventus). As we have strategically gone for it and effectively publically took a strategic ploy to beat the principles, in then failing to do so feels like they would hurt us more than if we were just oafs and got the maths wrong.

That's my logical thinking anyway

Nobody really knows the punishments that we might anticipate. But even if we assume the going rate is 10 points that would be enough to make European qualification via the league very challenging, assuming little change in personnel. The question I have is whether this FFP challenge is largely limited to the approaching deadline end of June, or whether we will be dealing with similar challenges every year due to the way we amortized payments? If the latter then we have a much bigger problem.

21 minutes ago, WhiteWall said:

The concern for me, and possibly others, which i confess comes from no statistical, analytical or reported knowledge, just logic, is that if we do fail this FFP bar:

• As i understand it we may have to sell some pure profit players by 30th June (in a Euros year) in a downturned market that knows we are sellers, in order to meet FFP requirements.
• If we fail to do that then i don't think we would be in the same situation Man City might possibly be in. If they are found guilty of some or all of the more serious offences then the implication is that there has been some form of fraudulent activity going on. If that is the case then it would be reasonable to expect that they would receive a Juventus level of punishment.
• Everton and Nottingham Forest however, if found guilty would have breached through incompetence/negligence and would probably have the 10 point deduction upheld with NF presumably getting similar treatment.
• If we are found guilty, it wouldn't be fraudulent, nor negligent, but it certainly wouldn't be innocent and would rank as a strategic ploy that had failed due to incorrect interpretation of the rules and allowances. WE have actually gone for this and publicly highlighted these apparent "loopholes" in the system, and then failed. Therefore i think it reasonable that our punishment could fall between the two other cases.
• Let's say we do fail and they give us a 20 point deduction, which we get reduced to 15 points on appeal.
• We are not making Europe this season at this rate. If we then have a 15 point deficit as a starting point next year Pochettino (if he is still here) will have to pull out a top 3 season just to make mid table again, so we could easily be looking at another two years minimum of no European football. Surely that wasn't in the Boehly/Clearlake playbook.

 

I think the problem is that people are looking way too far into the whats, ifs and maybes of stuff that, to be honest, we as fans and the journalists don't really have an idea about. I get that it can be worrying but also thinking about this debt we're supposedly in, surely by now we would have had to sell some assets like Gallagher already who we probably would have gotten £40m for in January if we were panic selling.

2 minutes ago, timetowaste said:

I think the problem is that people are looking way too far into the whats, ifs and maybes of stuff that, to be honest, we as fans and the journalists don't really have an idea about. I get that it can be worrying but also thinking about this debt we're supposedly in, surely by now we would have had to sell some assets like Gallagher already who we probably would have gotten £40m for in January if we were panic selling.

I think you make a fair and valid point in the first half of your response. I don't totally disagree with the latter part either although it is often overlooked that some of these players know the game as well and running contracts down is a viable option for a number of these, particularly as Europe is an open market without really loasing money. Its not as if Gallagher would fall off the radar if nobody picked him up in this country as a free agent if he is only on 45k a week here anyway. He could easily match or improve that at Dortmund, Inter or Athletico or somewhere else

Swiss ramble usually pretty accurate in the financial matters. Its clear we are in big trouble. Desperately need to get the right manager, and pull a couple of rabbits out of the hat in the transfer market. 

I was hoping for Osimhen, Davies, Tah, and someone like Rabiot. 

Cant see us being able to get in anyone of that ilk unless we can somehow raise another £150m on players sales. 

Lukaku, Cucurella, and Kepa probably end up being losses in terms of ffp. 

Gallagher and Broja could fetch okay fees. 

Who else is there left to sell? 

I actually fear for the clubs future under this ownership. Could quite easily end up getting relegated with points deduction and the overall quality of the squad they have assembled.

Might need the super league to save us.

Yawn. They don't know dick. 

Who or where has this sudden FFP problem come from?  Do any of these 'in the knows' actually know anything about our accounts?  It seems one 'expert' on talksport thinks we are in trouble and suddenly everyone is say we are screwed include the 'experts' who six months ago confidently said we were okay while smugly explaining amortisation after reading about it the day before.    

If this was correct the BBC and Sky would be all over it but this only seems to be twitter 'experts' that are talking with such confidence about our finances.   I'll believe it when it comes from somewhere more credible than 'click on me I know stuff no one else does bloke'.

As for the team how are you suppose to know the problem when you changed everything all at once?  Theres nothing we can point to and say we know that works so it must be that.  We don't know if anything works!

11 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

Who or where has this sudden FFP problem come from?  Do any of these 'in the knows' actually know anything about our accounts?  It seems one 'expert' on talksport thinks we are in trouble and suddenly everyone is say we are screwed include the 'experts' who six months ago confidently said we were okay while smugly explaining amortisation after reading about it the day before.    

If this was correct the BBC and Sky would be all over it but this only seems to be twitter 'experts' that are talking with such confidence about our finances.   I'll believe it when it comes from somewhere more credible than 'click on me I know stuff no one else does bloke'.

As for the team how are you suppose to know the problem when you changed everything all at once?  Theres nothing we can point to and say we know that works so it must be that.  We don't know if anything works!

I have spent more time than it's worth understanding the rules. 

I've always said we will be fine in the short term - e.g. this season. But we are reliant on revenues going up and making profits every year.  I've known for a while that we have to expect that players we love, will get sold, if they are financially valuable. I will be surprised if Palmer and Colwill are here in a few years time. 

Revenues are going up by less than we anticipated. Which means we need to sell more in transfer profits. But that's also becoming harder because clubs are spending less.

So we may be in trouble. The type of trouble that means we aren't at the top table for a decade. The type of trouble that could see us spiralling. 

We need to start pushing these clueless owners out of the club before they bring us down to national league 

7 minutes ago, bisright1 said:

I have spent more time than it's worth understanding the rules. 

I've always said we will be fine in the short term - e.g. this season. But we are reliant on revenues going up and making profits every year.  I've known for a while that we have to expect that players we love, will get sold, if they are financially valuable. I will be surprised if Palmer and Colwill are here in a few years time. 

Revenues are going up by less than we anticipated. Which means we need to sell more in transfer profits. But that's also becoming harder because clubs are spending less.

So we may be in trouble. The type of trouble that means we aren't at the top table for a decade. The type of trouble that could see us spiralling. 

Where do we get to see a detailed break down of Chelseas finances?  Can anyone share this link everyone seems to have?  You may know the rules or even written the rules yourself, but you can't come to any concrete conclusion with out knowing the details of the clubs accounts, which no one outside of the club is privy to.  

I'm no fan of the owners and they may well of screwed us over, but lets not talk like it's guaranteed. 

6 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

Where do we get to see a detailed break down of Chelseas finances?  Can anyone share this link everyone seems to have?  You may know the rules or even written the rules yourself, but you can't come to any concrete conclusion with out knowing the details of the clubs accounts, which no one outside of the club is privy to.  

I'm no fan of the owners and they may well of screwed us over, but lets not talk like it's guaranteed. 

The only actual source is the accounts that are filed in companies house. Last one available was from 21/22. 22/23 should be available soon.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01965149/filing-history

 

Everything else is just people guessing ... and we don't get ANY line of sight of what is submitted for FFP purposes, nor is that published anywhere by UEFA or the PL as far as I know.

12 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

Where do we get to see a detailed break down of Chelseas finances?  Can anyone share this link everyone seems to have?  You may know the rules or even written the rules yourself, but you can't come to any concrete conclusion with out knowing the details of the clubs accounts, which no one outside of the club is privy to.  

I'm no fan of the owners and they may well of screwed us over, but lets not talk like it's guaranteed. 

Exactly this. Everyone all of a sudden becomes financial experts because they heard or seen some fud gobsh*ting on twitter and takes it as gospel. Granted the new owners are making a right royal f**k up of it right now in terms of recruitment etc. But theres one thing im sure they are savy about and thats dealing with the money side of it. You dont become a multi billionaire without knowing business and figures. Im a lowly bricklayer dealing in tens and hundreds so im in no postiton to say the owners are f**king up financially. Ps Roman was the greatest owner and quite clearly had Chelseas best interests at heart. By f**k i miss him🥲

1 hour ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Yawn. They don't know dick. 

Let's just assume we do need to sell to make FFP.

The poster mentioned Lukaku, Cucurella and Kepa.

Lukakus release cause covers his remaining FFP cost, so would break even. Cucurella won't be sold yet the hit is too high.

Kepa we need just over 10mill to break even with. Let's say we can manage that, big ask but let's say we do.

 

So over 100mill supposedly needed. Ok.

 

Nkunkus FFP value is 43.4 at the end of the season. I could see us getting PSG to agree to spend 60mill on him. 

16.6mill profit.

Cole Palmers FFP value will be 34.3mill. I could easily see Spurs, Arsenal and Newcastle willing to bid for him and getting us Mount money of 55mill.

20.7mill profit.

Then there is the pure profits. 

Gallagher - must at least be able to get 30mill for him.

Broja at least 15mill

Hall already confirmed 28mill

Maatsen forget release clause at least 20mill.

93mill in pure profits plus the 37.3mill for our two star players.

Clubs won't turn down the chance to snap up a Palmer or Nkunku, so even if we need to sell, I believe we will be able to do so and be safe for next season.

Where there is smoke there is fire and let's be honest the club is a steaming volcano right now and it's all cause the owners right at the start took a huge gamble with Potter and invested an insane amount of money on young players while letting so many go and none of that paid off.

But of course everything is going to plan for Zeta to become the manager, albeit in a lower league as the starting point but still you take your wins where you can!

2 minutes ago, axman2526 said:

Let's just assume we do need to sell to make FFP.

The poster mentioned Lukaku, Cucurella and Kepa.

Lukakus release cause covers his remaining FFP cost, so would break even. Cucurella won't be sold yet the hit is too high.

Kepa we need just over 10mill to break even with. Let's say we can manage that, big ask but let's say we do.

 

So over 100mill supposedly needed. Ok.

 

Nkunkus FFP value is 43.4 at the end of the season. I could see us getting PSG to agree to spend 60mill on him. 

16.6mill profit.

Cole Palmers FFP value will be 34.3mill. I could easily see Spurs, Arsenal and Newcastle willing to bid for him and getting us Mount money of 55mill.

20.7mill profit.

Then there is the pure profits. 

Gallagher - must at least be able to get 30mill for him.

Broja at least 15mill

Hall already confirmed 28mill

Maatsen forget release clause at least 20mill.

93mill in pure profits plus the 37.3mill for our two star players.

Clubs won't turn down the chance to snap up a Palmer or Nkunku, so even if we need to sell, I believe we will be able to do so and be safe for next season.

I highly doubt Clearlake will be selling our best players like Palmer and Nkunku ... 

 

 

Just now, Gol15 said:

Where there is smoke there is fire and let's be honest the club is a steaming volcano right now and it's all cause the owners right at the start took a huge gamble with Potter and invested an insane amount of money on young players while letting so many go and none of that paid off.

But of course everything is going to plan for Zeta to become the manager, albeit in a lower league as the starting point but still you take your wins where you can!

He lives !!!

We were getting worried about what had happened to you Gol LOL

1 minute ago, Gol15 said:

Where there is smoke there is fire and let's be honest the club is a steaming volcano right now and it's all cause the owners right at the start took a huge gamble with Potter and invested an insane amount of money on young players while letting so many go and none of that paid off.

But of course everything is going to plan for Zeta to become the manager, albeit in a lower league as the starting point but still you take your wins where you can!

Gol there you are! Welcome back bud  :)

2 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

I highly doubt Clearlake will be selling our best players like Palmer and Nkunku ... 

 

 

Can you put anything past them?

I'll admit I don't know much about the financial rules, but weren't we just cleared for this cycle of FFP? Aren't these things measured on a three year cycle?

How come we immediately have to balance things out this summer if it's over a three year period?

Again, I don't know much, but I feel a lot of this is wishful thinking/clickbait. By the end of last year we were supposed to be doomed, between FFP breaches and old shady business. We were in the clear for FFP and I remember reading that we aren't even charged for the old wrongdoings (not yet at least).

Not saying that it's all fine and dandy, but it just sounds like a disappointed press saying ''well you got away with it now, but wait till they get you next time!''

1 hour ago, DarkMata said:

Where do we get to see a detailed break down of Chelseas finances?  Can anyone share this link everyone seems to have?  You may know the rules or even written the rules yourself, but you can't come to any concrete conclusion with out knowing the details of the clubs accounts, which no one outside of the club is privy to.  

I'm no fan of the owners and they may well of screwed us over, but lets not talk like it's guaranteed. 

The club publishes its revenues each year. 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that our transfer costs have gone up. And they will stay high for 5+ years.

It also doesn't take a rocket scientist either to know that our revenues are not going to be increasing this year or next. We aren't in Europe and we aren't announcing any interesting commercial tie ups. 

We will release our updated accounts in March. I'm really interested to see what they look like. But it's not being a speculative pessimist to say that if our revenues start to drop them we're in trouble. 

And that doesn't mean in trouble next year, it means at some point in the future. 

Edited February 5, 20242 yr by bisright1

16 minutes ago, axman2526 said:

Can you put anything past them?

Just a feeling based on reading up a bit on what Boehly did with the LA Dodgers ... that wasn't all smooth sailing either but nothing much phased them, and they weren't shy on replacing players, coaches, dealing with injuries etc until they got it right and won a sh*tload of titles ... 

6 minutes ago, yaz said:

I'll admit I don't know much about the financial rules, but weren't we just cleared for this cycle of FFP? Aren't these things measured on a three year cycle?

How come we immediately have to balance things out this summer if it's over a three year period?

Again, I don't know much, but I feel a lot of this is wishful thinking/clickbait. By the end of last year we were supposed to be doomed, between FFP breaches and old shady business. We were in the clear for FFP and I remember reading that we aren't even charged for the old wrongdoings (not yet at least).

Not saying that it's all fine and dandy, but it just sounds like a disappointed press saying ''well you got away with it now, but wait till they get you next time!''

No, I think the assessment happens each year, but it takes the last three years figures. So if we have just done 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, then next year it will be reviewed on the basis of 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23.

 

I think. Lol

1 minute ago, WhiteWall said:

No, I think the assessment happens each year, but it takes the last three years figures. So if we have just done 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, then next year it will be reviewed on the basis of 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23.

 

I think. Lol

Exactly that ... rolling three year cycle. This is why Everton are in the sh*t again ...