Remaining PL games

[Coxy15]

Think our best chances of getting a result in our last 2 games will be against Liverpool. Wolves are in good form and will be motivated to keep that going and get 6th place in style. Liverpool have dipped dramatically since winning the title, and hopefully that will continue and we can do what Arsenal did. If they can get 3 points, we can too!

[Jezz]

8 down, 2 to go.

• Everton (H) = Won
• Aston Villa (A) = Won
• Manchester City (H) = Won
• West Ham United (A) = Loss
• Watford (H) = Won
• Crystal Palace (A) = Won
• Sheffield United (A) = Loss
• Norwich City (H) = Won
• Liverpool (A)
• Wolves (H)

Ladder:

• 3. Chelsea = 63 (+15) - Next match is Liverpool away
• 4. Leicester City = 62 (+31) - Next match is Tottenham away
• 5. Manchester United = 62 (+28) - Next match is West Ham at home

[Deino]

Beat Liverpool. 

Hope for Spuds and Spams to win. 

Feels icky

[Erdal1905]

Only hope is Leicester to lose both games. 
Pretty sure Liverpool will be at 100% against us to lift the trophy in style. And I really don't know if we are capable of beating Wolves at the moment.

ManU will surely win against west ham, VAR will bail them out as soon as they're in trouble

Edited July 17, 2020 by Erdal1905

[Jezz]

Chelsea

• 69 Points (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses) = 100% guarantee of qualifying for CL.
• 67 points (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses) = 100% guarantee of qualifying for CL.
• 66 points (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss) = 95% guarantee of qualifying for CL.
• 65 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) = 81% guarantee of qualifying for CL.
• 64 points (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) = 70% guarantee of qualifying for CL.
• 63 points (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses) = 29% guarantee of qualifying for CL.

Opponents = Liverpool (A) - 1st, Wolves (H) - 6th

Leicester City

• 68 points (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)
• 66 points (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses)
• 65 points (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss)
• 64 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
• 63 points (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
• 62 points (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Opponents = Tottenham Hotspur (A) - 7th, Manchester United (H) - 5th

Manchester United

• 68 points (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)
• 66 points (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses)
• 65 points (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss)
• 64 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
• 63 points (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
• 62 points (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

Opponents = West Ham United (H) - 16th, Leicester City (A) - 4th

Edited July 17, 2020 by Jezz

[Jezz]

Scenarios

69 points (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)

• 100% certainty of playing Champions League football.
• We beat Liverpool and Wolves.
• 3rd place finish is guaranteed.
• Leicester and Manchester United's results are irrelevant.

67 points (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses)

• 100% certainty of finishing top 4.
• Requires beating one of Liverpool or Wolves, and obtaining a draw in the other game.
• I can't see us beating Liverpool at Anfield, but we're capable of beating Wolves at home.
• Leicester or United could finish 3rd in this scenario if they win both of their games, but one will finish 5th.

66 points (1 win, 0 draw, 1 loss)

• 95.23% guarantee of finishing top 4.
• We would need to beat one of Liverpool or Wolves.
• The only way we miss top 4 in this scenario is if both Leicester and United remain unbeaten (1 win and 1 draw each). Both sides must achieve this.
• If either Leicester or Manchester United lose a match or are unable to win at least one match each, then Chelsea finishes top 4.

65 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

• 80.96% guarantee of finishing top 4.
• Chelsea remain unbeaten in this scenario, but are unable to win either match.
• In order to finish top 4, Leicester and United both need to win at least one match in their final two and obtain a minimum of three out of six points.

64 points (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

• 70.00% guarantee of finishing top 4.
• It's possible Chelsea will lose to Liverpool, and draw to Wolves in this scenario.
• One of Leicester or United needs to lose at least one match, and only draw once in the other match (e.g. Leicester loses to Tottenham, but draws or loses to United on the final day of the season) in order for Chelsea to finish top 4.
• If Leicester and United both get two points or more out of a possible six in their final two games, then Chelsea misses out on top 4.

63 points (0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

• 28.57% guarantee of finishing top 4.
• Doomsday scenario.
• Lose to both Liverpool and Wolves.
• In order to finish top 4, Leicester or Manchester United need to lose both of their matches.
• If both Leicester or United pick up points in their final two games, Chelsea misses out on top 4.
• Based on form, Leicester is the more likely out of the two teams to lose both games.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Jezz

[Gol15]

It all comes down to winning 1 game out of 2.

At page 1 I said the last game is a must win but honestly I would love us to win vs Liverpool now, if Arsenal could do it we can do it too.

[Dixon]

As pointed out a few pages back, one win from the last  two games might not be enough. If Utd and Leicester win their next games and draw on the final day, we will need 4 points.

[big blue]

4 hours ago, Coxy15 said:

Think our best chances of getting a result in our last 2 games will be against Liverpool. Wolves are in good form and will be motivated to keep that going and get 6th place in style. Liverpool have dipped dramatically since winning the title, and hopefully that will continue and we can do what Arsenal did. If they can get 3 points, we can too!

We are in better form than wolves and Liverpool.

[Bluesince66]

If I'm honest I feel we will end up in 5th i hope I'm wrong,but in all honesty I would settle for that,its been a topsy-turvy season full of highs and lows,and next season we will be finishing in champions league places,of that im certain of.

[brownindian]

The one vs Liverpool is a must win for us as if we do that - it puts pressure on Man Utd and Leciester with one game to go.  Unfortunately looking at our tired legs, wobbly form and our woeful defense I feel that too is a tall task. I hope Liverpool have an offnight. 

[Dixon]

The players are clearly knackered and with the leagues games being more important i'd like to see us play a weakened team against Utd - Rest Pulisic, Azpi, Giroud, Willian and Kova. 

[bluesfan]

9 hours ago, Jezz said:

66 points (1 win, 0 draw, 1 loss)

• 95.23% guarantee of finishing top 4.
• We would need to beat one of Liverpool or Wolves.
• The only way we miss top 4 in this scenario is if both Leicester and United remain unbeaten (1 win and 1 draw each). Both sides must achieve this.
• If either Leicester or Manchester United lose a match or are unable to win at least one match each, then Chelsea finishes top 4.

Wondering how you came up with this number. Leicester only need to beat Spurs (not too difficult of a task) and the last game is simply a friendly draw and we're left out since we'll lose at Anfield. No way the chance of this happening is 5%.

[sonic90]

1 hour ago, bluesfan said:

Wondering how you came up with this number. Leicester only need to beat Spurs (not too difficult of a task) and the last game is simply a friendly draw and we're left out since we'll lose at Anfield. No way the chance of this happening is 5%.

There is probably no actual match fixing, but imagine if the scores are level at 70 minutes and both sides are tiring and they know a draw is enough, they will definitely hold for the draw. We can't lose at Anfield and see them win their next games, I reckon we're as good as done before the final game in that case.

[axman2526]

1 hour ago, bluesfan said:

Wondering how you came up with this number. Leicester only need to beat Spurs (not too difficult of a task) and the last game is simply a friendly draw and we're left out since we'll lose at Anfield. No way the chance of this happening is 5%.

Nope, with their superior firepower I think Spurs will beat Leicester. And you never know, maybe West ham will do United to. Lol

[bluesfan]

1 hour ago, axman2526 said:

Nope, with their superior firepower I think Spurs will beat Leicester. And you never know, maybe West ham will do United to. Lol

Spurs have nothing to play for and they hate us so I doubt they will push very hard. VARchester's chance to not get the 3 pts against WHU is 0.01% and that's if VAR is broken. Our only chance is to get a point at Anfield but with the congested schedule and shaky defence I don't see that happening.

[axman2526]

13 minutes ago, bluesfan said:

Spurs have nothing to play for and they hate us so I doubt they will push very hard. VARchester's chance to not get the 3 pts against WHU is 0.01% and that's if VAR is broken. Our only chance is to get a point at Anfield but with the congested schedule and shaky defence I don't see that happening.

Spurs want the Europa league spot.

[bluesfan]

1 hour ago, axman2526 said:

Spurs want the Europa league spot.

That is virtually impossible.

[axman2526]

2 hours ago, bluesfan said:

That is virtually impossible.

In all likelihood the FA cup will be won by a side finishing top 5. With City already having won the league cup.

That would mean sides finishing 5, 6 and 7 get Europe league spots. Spurs are currently 7th. Were they to lose against Leicester and both Arsenal and Sheff United win their next league games spurs would drop to 9th, leaving it very much out of their hands.

Win against the foxes and they can go in to the last league match knowing a win gets them a european spot.

[Jezz]

7 hours ago, bluesfan said:

Wondering how you came up with this number. Leicester only need to beat Spurs (not too difficult of a task) and the last game is simply a friendly draw and we're left out since we'll lose at Anfield. No way the chance of this happening is 5%.

The laws of probability.

There are 23 possible scenarios that could occur if we attain 66 points. In 22 of these scenarios, we finish top 4.

• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points), Manchester United (62 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points), Manchester United (66 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (64 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd

 

• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (64 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th

 

• Leicester City (66 points), Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points) = Chelsea finish 5th

Leicester and Manchester United have to both remain unbeaten, and both must win at least one match each. If Manchester United and Leicester both drop points against West Ham and Tottenham, then it's all over because only one team can win the final match of the season.

I expect United to defeat West Ham, so the key match to watch is Tottenham vs Leicester.

I'm not saying it's a 95% chance we'll get 66 points, but if we do attain 66 points (i.e. losing to Liverpool but beating Wolves) means our chances of making top 4 are strong. We would be incredibly unlucky if Leicester and United both attained 66 points simultaneously and pushed us out of the top 4.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Jezz

[bluesfan]

24 minutes ago, axman2526 said:

In all likelihood the FA cup will be won by a side finishing top 5. With City already having won the league cup.

That would mean sides finishing 5, 6 and 7 get Europe league spots. Spurs are currently 7th. Were they to lose against Leicester and both Arsenal and Sheff United win their next league games spurs would drop to 9th, leaving it very much out of their hands.

Win against the foxes and they can go in to the last league match knowing a win gets them a european spot.

Yes, I see your point. Hope they do us a favour.

[DarkMata]

5 hours ago, Jezz said:

The laws of probability.

There are 23 possible scenarios that could occur if we attain 66 points. In 22 of these scenarios, we finish top 4.

• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points), Manchester United (62 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points), Manchester United (66 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (64 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd
• Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 3rd

 

• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (64 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Leicester City (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Manchester United (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (68 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (65 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (64 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (63 points) = Chelsea finish 4th
• Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points), Leicester City (62 points) = Chelsea finish 4th

 

• Leicester City (66 points), Manchester United (66 points), Chelsea (66 points) = Chelsea finish 5th

Leicester and Manchester United have to both remain unbeaten, and both must win at least one match each. If Manchester United and Leicester both drop points against West Ham and Tottenham, then it's all over because only one team can win the final match of the season.

I expect United to defeat West Ham, so the key match to watch is Tottenham vs Leicester.

I'm not saying it's a 95% chance we'll get 66 points, but if we do attain 66 points (i.e. losing to Liverpool but beating Wolves) means our chances of making top 4 are strong. We would be incredibly unlucky if Leicester and United both attained 66 points simultaneously and pushed us out of the top 4.

But you've not taken in consideration the match difficultly.  For example if we changed our last 2 games to the All time world XI clones in their prime and the Superhero XI which includes Superman in Net, then Leicester & Manu Utds fixture are changed to the blind football champions and the Scottish under 8s, I don't think there is a 95.23% chance we'd get a CL spot, unless we can get hold of some kryptonite.  I like the optimism though.

[dkw]

5 hours ago, bluesfan said:

Yes, I see your point. Hope they do us a favour.

We dont need any favours, we just need to keep winning. 

[Jezz]

24 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

But you've not taken in consideration the match difficultly.  For example if we changed our last 2 games to the All time world XI clones in their prime and the Superhero XI which includes Superman in Net, then Leicester & Manu Utds fixture are changed to the blind football champions and the Scottish under 8s, I don't think there is a 95.23% chance we'd get a CL spot, unless we can get hold of some kryptonite.  I like the optimism though.

I acknowledge the flaw that I haven't weighted it according to difficulty, which is very difficult to quantify.

Putting everything aside, we need to at least win another match and draw the other one, otherwise we start to lose control over our top 4 prospects and we need to rely on other results to go our way.

Leicester is the weak link, as United are the form team of the competition at the moment.

Our best bet is getting a point at Anfield and beating Wolves in the final match.

[bluesfan]

Forget about a point at Anfield three days after a tough 90 or 120 minute game. But hopefully the players prove me wrong.