34 minutes ago, coco said:

I dont understand people saying nothing has changed, im sure they never really watch the games else they would notice things do change, those short corners have become way more effective than anything taken directly from the corner spot.  Willian and Callum have switched wings. The back line have had umpteen variations, same with the midfield.

The way you talk its like we have Sarri here again, who never hardly changed anything, and only when supporters got on his back did he do so.

I agree, we seemed to have stopped conceding goals from runners into the box at set pieces and also are now scoring the odd goal from a corner ourselves with better deliveries.

The downside is we are now struggling to score in open play.

5 minutes ago, Strider6003 said:

I agree, we seemed to have stopped conceding goals from runners into the box at set pieces and also are now scoring the odd goal from a corner ourselves with better deliveries.

The downside is we are now struggling to score in open play.

Yeah I  also agree. I know I bang on about it, but the job isn’t easy. we underestimate how hard it is to have everything working at the same time (why I’m so impressed by klopp). On top of the examples given above where weaknesses HAVE been addressed, we shouldn’t forget that we only get to watch a tiny sample of the total football hours played by the team and there are no doubt all sorts of things/routines that go on in training that don’t find their way into the matches. Lampard is no mug. He’s as frustrated and as aware of our deficiencies as anyone. but fixing them takes time. You work on one thing, then something else goes wrong, so you work on that and another crack appears elsewhere... he’s finding his way in a new job. Sarri, during his difficult patch last season, was also finding his way, not in a new job but a new league, new country. I was constantly urging to cut him some slack during that period last season, and would urge the same now with Lampard. This should be easier given the far greater goodwill of the fans towards Lampard, though this goodwill is starting to look more superficial than I thought. 

I'm not really a stats man but this expected points table is interesting.  Shows we are expected to be doing better than we are, less silly mistakes and more clinical in front of goal and we can easily achieve these stats.  Importantly also shows Liverpool have been very lucky this season. 

18 minutes ago, Dean said:

Yeah I  also agree. I know I bang on about it, but the job isn’t easy. we underestimate how hard it is to have everything working at the same time (why I’m so impressed by klopp). On top of the examples given above where weaknesses HAVE been addressed, we shouldn’t forget that we only get to watch a tiny sample of the total football hours played by the team and there are no doubt all sorts of things/routines that go on in training that don’t find their way into the matches. Lampard is no mug. He’s as frustrated and as aware of our deficiencies as anyone. but fixing them takes time. You work on one thing, then something else goes wrong, so you work on that and another crack appears elsewhere... he’s finding his way in a new job. Sarri, during his difficult patch last season, was also finding his way, not in a new job but a new league, new country. I was constantly urging to cut him some slack during that period last season, and would urge the same now with Lampard. This should be easier given the far greater goodwill of the fans towards Lampard, though this goodwill is starting to look more superficial than I thought. 

Good points.

Another factor I find is that watching through streams and TV is you never see the whole pitch view only the ball and the players around the ball so I have some awareness that we are not always getting the whole picture to see who should be played-in or who is holding back to stop the opposition.

16 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

I'm not really a stats man but this expected points table is interesting.  Shows we are expected to be doing better than we are, less silly mistakes and more clinical in front of goal and we can easily achieve these stats.  Importantly also shows Liverpool have been very lucky this season. 

I'm a big fan of the XG thing, it's about as accurate a foreshadower as it's possible to get.

3 hours ago, Dean said:

Ok. These “Klopp is nothing special“ takes ive seen here and elsewhere couldn’t be more wrong. I know we hate Liverpool, but we shouldn’t let it blind us to what Klopp has achieved. It’s nothing short of phenomenal. He’s transformed the club completely, turned it into a global powerhouse. Ok he spent a lot of money, but so did a lot of other clubs, without anything like the same success. unlike some of them, Liverpool’s spending was a function of the incremental improvements that Klopp brought about since taking over and the boost to profitability that resulted. 
 

We all tend to underestimate how hard it is to coach a football team, let alone one at the top. There are myriad factors that need to be considered, from tactics, to fitness, to team spirit, to psychological factors - maintaining confidence, managing those egos and, the hardest thing of all, doing all these things consistently... he’s getting the absolute most out of both the stars and the not-so-good players, and there are a good few. What he did at Dortmund was also remarkable, and let’s not forget he had to work his way up without a reputation to propel him. If you’re looking for a premier league manager who may not be all he’s cracked up to be, Guardiola is your man, not Klopp. Whether we like it or not, Klopp is the gold standard in football coaching/management right now. I get that it’s hard to take but it’s the reality. 

No one is saying Klopp is nothing special. We are just replying to those that keep comparing Lamp's 1st season with Klopp's 5th season at Liverpool. Some in here keep saying that Klopp would be much better than Lampard with the current team, and some of us are just reminding you that this is Lampard's first season and he is so far hgiher up in the table than Klopp's Liverpool on his first and second season. The truth is that it's taken Klopp at least 2 seasons to be somewhere competitive in the PL and play some good football.

4 minutes ago, Argo said:

I'm a big fan of the XG thing, it's about as accurate a foreshadower as it's possible to get.

@Argo Can you explain in simple terms for an old bastard exactly what this XG/XGA thing is and how it gets calculated?  I see it a lot in here and on MoTD and it means f**k all to me.

29 minutes ago, yorkleyblue said:

@Argo Can you explain in simple terms for an old bastard exactly what this XG/XGA thing is and how it gets calculated?  I see it a lot in here and on MoTD and it means f**k all to me.

the vid is long but is goes through pretty much everything 

Edited January 23, 20206 yr by MANoWAR

5 minutes ago, MANoWAR said:

the vid is long but is goes through pretty much everything 

Cheers

 

Watch Yorkley become an xG purist now and telling us that we desperately need to sign Ozil. 

22 hours ago, Gol15 said:

Most effective - barely scrapping wins against Villa and other low end teams while losing every big game in the league, for a month tops!

Chelsea 1 : 1 Leicester

Norwich 2 : 3 Chelsea

Chelsea 2 : 2 Sheffield United

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 : 5 Chelsea

Chelsea 0 : 1 Valencia

Chelsea 1 : 2 Liverpool

Chelsea 7 : 1 Grimsby

Chelsea 2 : 0 Brighton

Lille 1 : 2 Chelsea

Southampton 1 : 4 Chelsea

Chelsea 1 : 0 Newcastle United

Ajax 0 : 1 Chelsea

Burnley 2 : 4 Chelsea

Chelsea 1 : 2 Manchester United

Watford 1 : 2 Chelsea

Chelsea 4 : 4 Ajax

Chelsea 2 : 0 Crystal Palace

At best, 6 good games, 2-3 winning streak in the league, much effective such wow amazingness partnerships

 

How can you use stats to discredit one partnership then dismiss them for another? 

Do we have an age limit on this forum? I strongly advise for one, if we do I think we have someone breaking the rules. 

54 minutes ago, yorkleyblue said:

@Argo Can you explain in simple terms for an old bastard exactly what this XG/XGA thing is and how it gets calculated?  I see it a lot in here and on MoTD and it means f**k all to me.

Basically calculates the value of a chance against how often on average it would actually go in.

For example, the 2-2 between City and Spurs at the Ethiad this season, Spurs had 3 shots all game. One was a shot that's Ederson fumbled, another was a header from a corner and another was Kane shooting from the half way line which brought an XG rate of 0.07, which to put in layman terms the result was one in a million and strongly suggested Spurs were going to struggle throughout the season.

Here's the site (link below) if you want to have a look around yourself and it accurately foreshadowed a lot of things. Jose's collapse at United, Spurs fall in 2019, it also shown Emery's spell at Arsenal wasn't sustainable and by the look of this season's data I'd be very surprised if Newcastle don't get relegated either this season or next.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

Edited January 23, 20206 yr by Argo

28 minutes ago, Argo said:

Basically calculates the value of a chance against how often on average it would actually go in.

For example, the 2-2 between City and Spurs at the Ethiad this season, Spurs had 3 shots all game. One was a shot that's Ederson fumbled, another was a header from a corner and another was Kane shooting from the half way line which brought an XG rate of 0.07, which to put in layman terms the result was one in a million and strongly suggested Spurs were going to struggle throughout the season.

Here's the site (link below) if you want to have a look around yourself and it accurately foreshadowed a lot of things. Jose's collapse at United, Spurs fall in 2019, it also shown Emery's spell at Arsenal wasn't sustainable and by the look of this season's data I'd be very surprised if Newcastle don't get relegated either this season or next.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

Cheers, I can see what it is doing, but I still don't understand how these values are calculated.  perhaps  I'm just a bit simple.

3 minutes ago, yorkleyblue said:

Cheers, I can see what it is doing, but I still don't understand how these values are calculated.  perhaps  I'm just a bit simple.

Apparently Arsenal's expected goals against us was 0.39, so they bettered that by over 500%. Ours was 2.79 so we should have outscored them by a factor of 7.

Is that a record?

1 hour ago, RMH said:

No one is saying Klopp is nothing special. We are just replying to those that keep comparing Lamp's 1st season with Klopp's 5th season at Liverpool. Some in here keep saying that Klopp would be much better than Lampard with the current team, and some of us are just reminding you that this is Lampard's first season and he is so far hgiher up in the table than Klopp's Liverpool on his first and second season. The truth is that it's taken Klopp at least 2 seasons to be somewhere competitive in the PL and play some good football.

Fair enough. For the record, and probably no need to clarify but I will anyway - by praising klopp I’m not criticising Lampard. I think Klopp would be better with our current team based on his experience. But Lampard has a crack at becoming a great manager for sure and I wouldn’t think for a second about swapping them (as if that would happen anyway). Something I’m pretty sure we can agree on - the fact it took Klopp a couple of seasons is all the more reason for patience with Lampard.

47 minutes ago, Argo said:

Basically calculates the value of a chance against how often on average it would actually go in.

For example, the 2-2 between City and Spurs at the Ethiad this season, Spurs had 3 shots all game. One was a shot that's Ederson fumbled, another was a header from a corner and another was Kane shooting from the half way line which brought an XG rate of 0.07, which to put in layman terms the result was one in a million and strongly suggested Spurs were going to struggle throughout the season.

Here's the site (link below) if you want to have a look around yourself and it accurately foreshadowed a lot of things. Jose's collapse at United, Spurs fall in 2019, it also shown Emery's spell at Arsenal wasn't sustainable and by the look of this season's data I'd be very surprised if Newcastle don't get relegated either this season or next.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

 

They could have just rung me up and I'd have told them.

18 minutes ago, Backbiter said:

Apparently Arsenal's expected goals against us was 0.39.

 

Once you factor in Kepa it became 382.

28 minutes ago, Backbiter said:

Apparently Arsenal's expected goals against us was 0.39, so they bettered that by over 500%. Ours was 2.79 so we should have outscored them by a factor of 7.

Is that a record?

What I don't understand is in that game the first Arsenal goal was a one on one with the goal keeper surely that on its own is more than 0.39 chance of a goal.

11 minutes ago, DarkMata said:

What I don't understand is in that game the first Arsenal goal was a one on one with the goal keeper surely that on its own is more than 0.39 chance of a goal.

Maybe they factor in the probability of a team conceding a goal 13 seconds after taking a corner.

2 hours ago, Backbiter said:

Apparently Arsenal's expected goals against us was 0.39, so they bettered that by over 500%. Ours was 2.79 so we should have outscored them by a factor of 7.

Is that a record?

So what exactly is the point of it.

5 hours ago, coco said:

I dont understand people saying nothing has changed, im sure they never really watch the games else they would notice things do change, those short corners have become way more effective than anything taken directly from the corner spot.  Willian and Callum have switched wings. The back line have had umpteen variations, same with the midfield.

The way you talk its like we have Sarri here again, who never hardly changed anything, and only when supporters got on his back did he do so.

 

I personally don't see why we take so many short corners, we should mix it up more and practice our deliveries into the penalty box.

I disagree that these short corners have been effective, we hardly ever score from them, I would say we're just as likely to concede from them as our central defenders go into the box, our attack breaks down and we are hit on the counter attack.

I'm fully behind Frank but that doesn't mean tactics or team selection can't be up for debate.

I think there are things that are problems that can be worked on in training, like seeing teaching Kepa to dominate his area a bit more, playing with a quicker tempo, not having Kante as a midfield playmaker etc..

Our recent record at home is poor so we need to figure out a way of opening up teams at the bridge without relying on penalties, in that aspect we definitely need to improve.

 

12 minutes ago, Kev56 said:

So what exactly is the point of it.

Because it is generally a very accurate foreshadower of what is to come.

For example, look at last season's league table and the XP aside, look at how much Spurs and Arsenal overachieved on their XPs, and now look at what's happened to them this season.

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2018

IMO no Chelsea manager in the last 15 years had the same level of trust from the club that Klopp and Pep had from day 1. Conte won the league in his first season and the club still didn't want to back him, sadly his Morata signing was a tragedy, I can only imagine how things would have been if he actually did turn a super-sub into a striker that would lead the attack...

Whatever Klopp has done so far, it took him at least 3 years to do it. But it might also happen that we see his tactic being outdated in the next 3 years. When Pep won the league for the first time the media was all over the place with calling that team as the greatest ever in history of the league, now the same is going to happen with Klopp, it's nothing new.

I honestly think Pep got lucky to have the reputation he has, he walked into an already top 4 team and just spent tons of money, someone like Pellegrini or Mancini looked impressive before him as well, it's similar to Barcelona that has tons of previous managers that won the biggest trophies that can be won but before and after Barcelona they simply couldn't replicate the success, not even close and Pep even before Man City walked into Bayern, one of the best European teams at the time but couldn't replicate what he had done in Barcelona either.

Frank Lampard can grow into a more impressive manager than both, he started with a squad full of youth and with a transfer ban, some of our young players just might become some of the best in the league.

2 minutes ago, Gol15 said:

club still didn't want to back him, sadly his Morata signing was a tragedy,

He actually wanted Lukaku. It's all in the past but the summer of 2017 is when we had the chance to take a stranglehold on this league. Had we gone for it and invested in Van Dijk who Conte were desperate for and Lukaku we'd probably still be the best team in the league.

1 hour ago, Sindre said:

He actually wanted Lukaku. It's all in the past but the summer of 2017 is when we had the chance to take a stranglehold on this league. Had we gone for it and invested in Van Dijk who Conte were desperate for and Lukaku we'd probably still be the best team in the league.

Lukaku also wasn't the right forward for us, he would've flopped here I think.