2 hours ago, dkw said:

That's an excellent break down @terraloon, its why i dont take seriously any of the twitter lot or reporters take on this as they simply dont have anywhere near enough data and just seem to pluck numbers out of thin air.

 

also, not sure im happy having the taxman on this forum, any information i may have divulged about my financial income was a complete lie and can in no way be used against in a court of law.....

The FFP rules are very complex and as illustrated in the written reasons given in the Everton charge the rules are open to significant interpretation but more importantly information submitted is based on trust and again as stated in the Everton case the PL don’t carry out in depth forensic analysis of all clubs submissions.

The fact that we couldn’t trade effectively for a period losing players who we had hoped to retain, lost commercial income lost gate receipts and so on will create significant mitigation when it comes to interpretation of numbers and until the 21/22 and possibly the 22/23 numbers have worked themselves through the system there will almost certainly be allowances made because the losses are quantifiable.

The owners have been particularly clever when it comes to self reporting of matters uncovered during DD . 

Most are suggesting that charges ,if they are made, will be laid under PL rules and yes that possible but it’s just as likely to be dealt with by the FA. Again most are suggesting that the charges will be FFP ( P&S) and again that’s possible but most likely any  charges would be around based on failure to fully account for payments made

My current thoughts are that it’s even possible any charges won’t be put before an independent commission as it’s well within the rule books that the disciplinary body be it the FA or the PL reach an settlement agreement particularly when the waters are as muddied as they are and the owners self reported

Come to that it’s even possible without access to RA or sight of third party information it may well be that no action will be taken .

Then you have the question of double jeopardy will the authorities make a charge akin to the Everton charge if indeed the FFP numbers are revisited and disclose failure to remain under the £105 million loss without first having dealt with the failure to disclose and I am far from certain that two separate charges could be made for the same indiscretion. But what do I know !

 

 

Edited January 4, 20242 yr by terraloon

17 hours ago, terraloon said:

For instance the historical amortisation and squad cost going forward had to be addressed. The word is that the overall squad costs alone have been reduced by in excess of £57million pa. A football club generating the levels of money Chelsea FC have historically simply can’t spend the sums it had hitherto.

First of all, good post terraloon. Some interesting perspectives.

But if you are thinking of annual amortization here you are not getting the full picture. Because while we initially did reduce annual amortization by about £57 million through sales we have added well over a £110 million pa on incomings (Enzo, Caicedo, Lavia alone is close to £40m pa). So overall it's a major additional expense and one we'll have to take on the chin for the next 7-8 years come hell or high water.

What they have been able to do is to reduce the wage-bill and the opex quite significantly. But what they've not managed to do is to achieve that while keeping us in the Champions League or even Europe at all. So those savings are again more than offset by losing incredibly significant Champions League money. This year the top teams in Europe (like we were in 21 & 22) are likely to collect over a £150 million while we need to accept a big fat £0,- and the same looking likely for the 24/25 books.

As for the impairment you bring up (£76.7m) that was us accepting a reduction in value of company assets (players) one of which who was Lukaku. We are not going to be granted deductions for that. There are other things you can deduct though like depreciation, womens team, youth etc but thats estimated to be around £40m will effectively will put us at a £80 million FFP loss for 21/22.

And for 22/23 there are a lot of extraordinary costs, mainly self inflicted ones while the 23-25 books will almost certainly be without Champions League income.

We may possibly manage to comply with FFP still but if we do it will be in an "artificial" and non-sustainable way by continuing to sell of our academy assets, including the good ones who the manager want to keep.

To me its all a bit like selling off the gold bars so that you can buy expensive water pumps and keep the ship afloat for a littlebit longer. But if or when we run out of gold bars we will one hundred percent be in trouble unless we are fully back in the Champions League. That would probably save the situation but time is of the essence in regards to that and we are still miles off.

 

 

Edited January 5, 20242 yr by OriginalS

The get out of jail card will be selling James in the next 18-24 months ( after the likes of Chalobah, Masten , Gallagher etc sold ). These guys have done their FFP accounting ( or at least I hope), although the real challenge be on the revenue side if we can't make back to the CL and back to  be one of the better teams in Europe.

3 minutes ago, icecoolguy22 said:

The get out of jail card will be selling James in the next 18-24 months ( after the likes of Chalobah, Masten , Gallagher etc sold ). These guys have done their FFP accounting ( or at least I hope), although the real challenge be on the revenue side if we can't make back to the CL and back to  be one of the better teams in Europe.

Can't see how we sell James for any reasonable price. He's far too injury prone and locked into a well paying contract. 

2 hours ago, bisright1 said:

Can't see how we sell James for any reasonable price. He's far too injury prone and locked into a well paying contract. 

Why would he leave? No one will pay a top dollar transfer fee and no one will pay his wages. He’s happy playing about 10 games of football a year and copping over £12m annually, north of a million per game. 👍

6 hours ago, OriginalS said:

First of all, good post terraloon. Some interesting perspectives.

But if you are thinking of annual amortization here you are not getting the full picture. Because while we initially did reduce annual amortization by about £57 million through sales we have added well over a £110 million pa on incomings (Enzo, Caicedo, Lavia alone is close to £40m pa). So overall it's a major additional expense and one we'll have to take on the chin for the next 7-8 years come hell or high water.

What they have been able to do is to reduce the wage-bill and the opex quite significantly. But what they've not managed to do is to achieve that while keeping us in the Champions League or even Europe at all. So those savings are again more than offset by losing incredibly significant Champions League money. This year the top teams in Europe (like we were in 21 & 22) are likely to collect over a £150 million while we need to accept a big fat £0,- and the same looking likely for the 24/25 books.

As for the impairment you bring up (£76.7m) that was us accepting a reduction in value of company assets (players) one of which who was Lukaku. We are not going to be granted deductions for that. There are other things you can deduct though like depreciation, womens team, youth etc but thats estimated to be around £40m will effectively will put us at a £80 million FFP loss for 21/22.

And for 22/23 there are a lot of extraordinary costs, mainly self inflicted ones while the 23-25 books will almost certainly be without Champions League income.

We may possibly manage to comply with FFP still but if we do it will be in an "artificial" and non-sustainable way by continuing to sell of our academy assets, including the good ones who the manager want to keep.

To me its all a bit like selling off the gold bars so that you can buy expensive water pumps and keep the ship afloat for a littlebit longer. But if or when we run out of gold bars we will one hundred percent be in trouble unless we are fully back in the Champions League. That would probably save the situation but time is of the essence in regards to that and we are still miles off.

 

 

As I pointed out the statutory accounts will show amortisation for all players  where a fee remains to be depreciated but from a FFP& P&S perspective amortisation charges are significantly adjusted when a player is loaned out .

I went through the accounts with a fine tooth comb and couldn’t find it mentioned anywhere as to why the impairment had occurred and yes it’s probable that the new owners were advised to in effect reduce the values of players but a couple of  things 1) why were the values thought to be less ? Was it as a result ( as Everton had successfully argued  ) of the depressed market as a consequence of COVID ?or 2) Was it quite simply that the numbers needed adjusting anyway ? 
Irrespective the fact that £76 million in 21/22 was impaired that  has the knock on of reducing amortisation charges in the years 22/23 et seq and that will be a benefit 

We have absolutely no idea which players had reduced values but what we doing know is that in 22/23 some big names who we paid big money for left. Some like Jorginho left for a fee others like Rudiger left on a free but once they left their wasn’t any sums left re their initial transfers to be included in the accounts . 

We will have to see what the 21/2 numbers show but the 20/21 £76 million won’t be repeated. I think you are being way too pessimistic when it comes to the numbers. 
 

52 minutes ago, terraloon said:

We will have to see what the 21/2 numbers show but the 20/21 £76 million won’t be repeated. I think you are being way too pessimistic when it comes to the numbers. 
 

If you are thinking of the impairment then we are in agreement yes. There are of course plenty of other extraordinary costs in 22/23 to "replace" the extraordinary impairment of 21/22. The whole Potter farce cost us about £40 million in one financial year for example.
We'll see how it all pans out in the end but getting back in the Champions League ASAP will be of utmost importance if we want to stay ahead of FFP in my view. If we do I think we will be fine but if not then all bets are off.

 

3 minutes ago, OriginalS said:

If you are thinking of the impairment then we are in agreement yes. There are of course plenty of other extraordinary costs in 22/23 to "replace" the extraordinary impairment of 21/22. The whole Potter farce cost us about £40 million in one financial year for example.
We'll see how it all pans out in the end but getting back in the Champions League ASAP will be of utmost importance if we want to stay ahead of FFP in my view. If we do I think we will be fine but if not then all bets are off.

 

The statutory accounts will show losses of that I have no doubt but as I started out by saying the numbers in the accounts won’t be the numbers put forward for FFP.

Looking again at Everton their losses as reflected in their accounts for 18/19 , 19/20&2021 and 21/22 were something like £370 million yet for the P&S calculations they came in at £124 million or £19 million over the permitted maximum loss and other than the issues around cancelling Usmanovs (USM) sponsorship of Finch Farm and a mythical pre naming rights agreement they didn’t have  anywhere close to the mitigating factors that we will be able to put forward as exceptional matters. 
 

I am fairly confident that come the 22/23 charges we will probably still be ok but as you rightly say without CL or at least Europa qualification it will be harder to balance the numbers going forward 

Cobham and leadership: James is captain, Gallagher is captain, Colwill is captain, Guehi is captain, Ampadu is captain....did I miss someone?

1 hour ago, evissy said:

Cobham and leadership: James is captain, Gallagher is captain, Colwill is captain, Guehi is captain, Ampadu is captain....did I miss someone?

Yes,

Who feeds Mudryk?

5 hours ago, evissy said:

Cobham and leadership: James is captain, Gallagher is captain, Colwill is captain, Guehi is captain, Ampadu is captain....did I miss someone?

A bit older, but Jack Cork would qualify.

Also Declan Rice if we include Cobhamites that we binned off (too) early !

Edited January 8, 20242 yr by Sexyfootball

Acquiring a stake in Boca would be incredible.

1 hour ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Acquiring a stake in Boca would be incredible.

Is that on the cards Sconnie?

Been away , bit out of touch with the latest news tbh

27 minutes ago, The Rising Sun said:

Is that on the cards Sconnie?

Been away , bit out of touch with the latest news tbh

Boca, Newell, Estudientes, and Racing 

20 hours ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Acquiring a stake in Boca would be incredible.

I worked in Buenos Aries for a while, adopted River Plate as my club. Went to every home game on a Sunday, unbelievable atmosphere, and on derby day against Bocca, jeez unreal.

 

5 hours ago, DidierDrogbalala said:

 

Stats don’t lie. Chelsea owners couldn’t have really done worse if they’d tried. Shocking fall. Standards need to be higher. 

9 hours ago, PhilH930 said:

Stats don’t lie. Chelsea owners couldn’t have really done worse if they’d tried. Shocking fall. Standards need to be higher. 

I agree but lets not assume that the owners could do any worse? They seem quite adept at hitting new lows.

Edited January 10, 20242 yr by forbzy
typo

At the heart of everything that is wrong with the clubs is the owners, not Pochettino not the sporting directors not the players but the owners.

They had a world class infrastructure in place and they sacked everyone and brought in their people. Thereby if their people fail, they (the owners) fail. Potter, Lampard and the other bloke didn't make us finish 12th Todd and Ed did.

2 points I have regarding the matter.

Number 1 Chelsea's women's team. Proof that Boehly and Co have ruined us. Why because look at the women's team they left the infrastructure alone they let Emma do her job they recognised they had a world class coach (like Tuchel but easier to manage). They continued in the same approach as the previous regime for player acquisition and didn't make any radical changes. What is the result the team is still flourishing. Now compare that to the men's team.... add in the fact they replaced the whole medical team and we've probably had an even worse injury crisis than before and the finger of blame points solely at the owners.

The next point is the lack of consistency in their approach to squad building. They wanted to sign players in their prime with experience the first window (in comes Sterling, KK, PEA etc.) Oh no that's not working ok let's immediately switch to a youth only project (2nd window) which will give us time if results aren't going our way. But wait hold up let's try and sign superstars like CR7 or Neymar, but we won't sign anyone else over 25 because it doesn't fit our model despite the current manager begging for experience.

Sure they didn't sign Ronaldo or Neymar but they wanted them which begs the question do they even know what they want because we alrealdy know they don't know what they're doing. There is very little thought put into this project. The only reason we didn't sign them is Potter and Poch said no.

As I've said before I actually specialise in sport business management and I cannot stress enough how bad this ownership have done. It's one thing to ruin a club by doing nothing it's another to do everything but the right thing. Let that last sentence sink in they've done everything but the right thing. The wrong sporting directors, the wrong medics, the wrong players, the wrong coach. Every single one of these are below the level of an elite club. So what's the project? To take an elite club to a midtable club it's the opposite of what every owner aspires to do.

Don't let anyone gaslight you into believing anything else. Any failure this club experiences over the next 10 years comes down to the owners approach to business management. Sure there's time for them to succeed but as of this moment their project is a failure. They have created a team that loses. We lost a cup semi final game (first leg) to a mid table championship team do you understand how bad this is. Roman would not stand for it. We used to sack coaches for finishing 2nd/3rd or worse winning a cup but not making ucl. Now we tolerate mediocrity or worse failure.

 

Edited January 10, 20242 yr by LongtimerLurker

7 minutes ago, LongtimerLurker said:

At the heart of everything that is wrong with the clubs is the owners, not Pochettino not the sporting directors not the players but the owners.

They had a world class infrastructure in place and they sacked everyone and brought in their people. Thereby if their people fail, they (the owners) fail. Potter, Lampard and the other bloke didn't make us finish 12th Todd and Ed did.

2 points I have regarding the matter.

Number 1 Chelsea's women's team. Proof that Boehly and Co have ruined us. Why because look at the women's team they left the infrastructure alone they let Emma do her job they recognised they had a world class coach (like Tuchel but easier to manage). They continued in the same approach as the previous regime for player acquisition and didn't make any radical changes. What is the result the team is still flourishing. Now compare that to the men's team.... add in the fact they replaced the whole medical team and we've probably had an even worse injury crisis than before and the finger of blame points solely at the owners.

The next point is the lack of consistency in their approach to squad building. They wanted to sign players in their prime with experience the first window (in comes Sterling, KK, PEA etc.) Oh no that's not working ok let's immediately switch to a youth only project (2nd window) which will give us time if results aren't going our way. But wait hold up let's try and sign superstars like CR7 or Neymar, but we won't sign anyone else over 25 because it doesn't fit our model despite the current manager begging for experience.

Sure they didn't sign Ronaldo or Neymar but they wanted them which begs the question do they even know what they want because we alrealdy know they don't know what they're doing. There is very little thought put into this project. The only reason we didn't sign them is Potter and Poch said no.

As I've said before I actually specialise in sport business management and I cannot stress enough how bad this ownership have done. It's one thing to ruin a club by doing nothing it's another to do everything but the right thing. Let that last sentence sink in they've done everything but the right thing. The wrong sporting directors, the wrong medics, the wrong players, the wrong coach. Every single one of these are below the level of an elite club. So what's the project? To take an elite club to a midtable club it's the opposite of what every owner aspires to do.

Don't let anyone gaslight you into believing anything else. Any failure this club experiences over the next 10 years comes down to the owners approach to business management. Sure there's time for them to succeed but as of this moment their project is a failure. They have created a team that loses. We lost a cup semi final game (first leg) to a mid table championship team do you understand how bad this is. Roman would not stand for it. We used to sack coaches for finishing 2nd/3rd or worse winning a cup but not making ucl. Now we tolerate mediocrity or worse failure.

 

I'll also add in this was meant to be taken as a critical analysis piece more so than a whinge about the owners. I know the majority on here understand context and whilst we believe they have our best interest at heart they fail to understand elite European football. This is not meant to come across rude, the truth is American and European elite sports are innately different and their failure to recognise this has damaged us as a club. 

Nagelsmann & Enrique would have never worked because they wouldn't have tolerated this approach by the owners. Pochettino unfortunately is proving to be a pushover and in all honesty a disappointment as I had believed after the year we had whoever takes charge would have some balls about them (especially since he had been waiting for a year for a new role) to stand up to the board and say I'm the football expert here not you. Sadly Tuchel probably did this and got sacked for it.

He said Chelsea isn't the same club anymore and he was right if ever there was a man to epitomise and embody Chelsea FC it was Tuchel and by sacking him unjustly they proved in that moment that the Chelsea of the 21st Century was no more. Only this iteration which is still a body of work remains and on the first impressions it's not looking good.

22 minutes ago, LongtimerLurker said:

They had a world class infrastructure in place and they sacked everyone and brought in their people.

This is what has continuously bugged me. I have no idea why they ever went about things the way the did. 

I have lost sleep scratching my head on this one. Is it a case of being naive (I know I have given him dogs abuse and would like to give him even more, not like it in anyway affects him but at least I get a therapeutic benefit)? I don't think so because when you look at his achievements they all point to a smart man, or at least business savvy. 

Is it arrogance or self sabotage out of a hidden agenda? I know I'm beginning to sound loco but it's driving me mad to make sense of it all. 

It's just not making sense. How can you go from the team we had, admittedly not even one that was a very good one, spend near £1b and have an even worse team.

We as fans all have our opinions and biases towards certain personnel,, players or managers but the truth is Todd and Co have set the team up for failure. 

They have gone with a scorched earth approach that if it works according to plan may reap rewards years down the line, but as someone in Finance and Investment he should know that there is no such thing as "goes to plan". He is now using our Academy as his "stretch" to accommodate bad management and decisions. Perhaps it was all part of the plan but that shows you that he has not considered the feelings of the fans or what is indeed a great British Footballing Institution, in our club. 

He has been disrespectful to the club,its fans and British football in general. 

Ar the end of the day I'm a firm believer of the owner has a right to do what he wants as do players or managers as it's their money or careers on the line and fan sentiment is always blind to these other things but oh dear....

What a clanger.

They have turned us into AFC Richmond!!

1 minute ago, El regreso said:

They have turned us into AFC Richmond!!

3 minutes ago, El regreso said:

They have turned us into AFC Richmond!!

2 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said: