17 minutes ago, benjsross said:

Arsenal got 2.6 points in the run in in 2012/2013 - 10 wins and 2 draws
Liverpool got 2.8 points in 2008/2009 - 9 wins and 1 draw

Those are the only teams in the last 10 years that a team has bettered 2.5 points per game. And neither actually won the league. 

But did any of those teams have 14 consecutive wins before the last 10 games?

It's as if you completely forget about the previous 28 games.

9 minutes ago, coco said:

But did any of those teams have 14 consecutive wins before the last 10 games?

It's as if you completely forget about the previous 28 games.

I am just pointing out statistically how unlikely it is that we will be caught. Once you stop assuming that City will win every game then it becomes a bit clearer. I assume City will drop at least 6 points meaning we will need to drop 16 or whatever the gap is. 

Basically we are going to win the league. Just enjoy it

2 hours ago, Sexyfootball said:

My guess would be "fixture difficulty rating", though I'm surprised our Man United game isn't in blue in that case :)

it's red for the dirty red mancs though

 

1 hour ago, benjsross said:

		P	W	D	L	CS	FtS	F	A	GD	Pt	PPG	Form
1	Leicester City	10	7	3	0	6	0	17	5	+12	24	2.40	WDWDWD
2	Southampton	10	7	2	1	0	1	24	13	+11	23	2.30	WDWWWW
3	Manchester United	11	7	1	3	6	2	13	9	+4	22	2.00	WWDWLW
4	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	3	0	25	14	+11	22	1.83	WDLWDD
5	Arsenal	11	5	5	1	6	1	22	10	+12	20	1.82	DWDWDW
6	Swansea City	11	6	2	3	3	2	17	16	+1	20	1.82	WLLWWD
7	West Ham United	11	5	4	2	2	0	24	20	+4	19	1.73	DWWLWL
8	Manchester City	12	5	4	3	5	3	23	13	+10	19	1.58	WDWLDD
9	Sunderland	10	3	6	1	4	3	14	9	+5	15	1.50	WDDWWD
10	Tottenham Hotspur	11	4	4	3	4	1	20	14	+6	16	1.45	WWDDLL
11	Chelsea	10	2	5	3	1	2	17	15	+2	11	1.10	LWDLDD

 

Last seasons last 10 games (12 in the case of City). 

It is rare for a team to get 2.5 points in the run in. If City get 2.5 points per game in the run in then they will end at 85 points. Meaning we need 1.72 points per game. It happens (look at City and Tottenhams run in last year) but there are usually mitigating circumstances (tottenham gave up when they lost the league, city stopped playing when they knew guardiola was coming in).

If we cant get 1.7 points per game we don't deserve to win the league anyway.  

 

 

Edited March 7, 20179 yr by robdog

Stoke and Bournemouth away should be comfortable wins, Stoke have shipped 3 vs every big team bar United and the way Eddie Howe sets up is begging for numerous counter attacks, the only danger i see in those two is wasted opportunities or Grant and Boruc playing amazing. 6 points.

We should have to much for Palace at home, likewise Watford whenever we face them,  6 points.

City at home is shaping up similar to Arsenal at home in 2005, id accept the same scoreline, feel we won't lose at The Bridge. 1/3 points.

United away with Uniteds fixtures i think Jose will set up defensive basically offering us a 0-0, unless City have come within 5 points by then id happily take that from Manchester and run, 1 point.

Southampton at home is a potential banana skin, hope for 3 points but Wouldn't be surprised with only 1, which like in the 2015 fixture shouldn't be a big tragedy. 1/3 points.

Everton away is the one game i feel we won't win, they are picking up momentum and rarely lose at home, 0/1 point.

Boro at home, no excuses to fail here, 3 points.

WBA away, i hate Pulis teams away from home, outside the big boys i think its hardest away game but hopefully like in 2015 we are done by then, 0-3 points anything can happen here.

Sunderland at home, 3 points all day.

 

This is me being slightly cautious, 20-29 points i have predicted, 20 is the absolute minimum requirement with these fixtures which will see us on 86 points which should be enough.

3 hours ago, Zero said:

In my opinion, the ratings are off at someplaces. For instance, Southampton at home is no way near as hard as Everton away. Manchester United away should probably have the higest possible rating.

I agree. Those are somewhat subjective but would you class Everton away in the same class as one of the top 6 at home? I read they tried to balance it a little, Burnley away has a higher rating than the same team at home for example. And obviously it doesn't account for playing someone like Boro late on who may be in a more desperate position the last couple of matches than playing them 10 matches out

I think the larger point of it is when you add them all up it gives a pretty clear account of how difficult the run in is for each team. 

"We are quite aware of our last season and how we fared back then. We know that the Premier League does not forgive, so we cannot enter the pitch with the mindset that we are already champions, that we already have the title at our hands."

"I believe that we are still many miles apart [from the objective], though we have a good advantage. We need to keep up the pace since every game now is a final. We need to win every game and go through step by step."

 

Diego Costa on the CFC current Title charge

My predictions for the remaining 11 games 

 

Stoke away draw

palace home win 

City home draw 

Watford home win 

Bournemouth away win 

United away draw 

Southampton home win 

everton away draw or defeat 

Boro home win 

west brom away win 

Sunderland home win 

I reckon we should get around 24-25 points in our 11 games

with end of season total at a minimal of 90 points  

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 hours ago, andy said:

I would say they are favorites as they don't have the pressure of expectation. 9 point leads have been overturned from here before.  

 

Actually, no team with 66 points or more after 27 games has ever been caught. It would be a historical collapse

Edited March 8, 20179 yr by Xfaxtor

And no English team had won a penalty shootout against a German team.

I'll be happy when its mathematically done

Edited March 8, 20179 yr by Stim

2 hours ago, Xfaxtor said:

 

Actually, no team with 66 points or more after 27 games has ever been caught. It would be a historical collapse

In that case I  am expecting a historical collapse, anything else is a bonus...... Just the way I deal with it.     

13 hours ago, Jezq8 said:

My predictions for the remaining 11 games 

 

Stoke away draw

palace home win 

City home draw 

Watford home win 

Bournemouth away win 

United away draw 

Southampton home win 

everton away draw or defeat 

Boro home win 

west brom away win 

Sunderland home win 

I reckon we should get around 24-25 points in our 11 games

with end of season total at a minimal of 90 points  

 

We will win every single one of these, bar the City game. That's 30 points from 11 games and therefore finishing with 96 points and that shiny PL trophy 

When the words ' It would be a historical collapse ' are used all it does is implant images of headlines about Chelseas Historical Collapse into my head

On 06/11/2016 at 14:53, Jon Stakes said:

I don't think title favorites. Liverpool has been the most consistent so far and they haven't shown any sign of stopping. Arsenal and Man City are obviously in it, as are Tottenham and to a lesser extent Man Utd.

Couldn't have been more right about Liverpool haha

10 points clear now, title is as good as ours

Beauty result, dropped points at home.

It's ours to lose based on the table, however I'm sure Conte will emphasis on winning, rather than not losing. Unlike this time 2 seasons ago, we are playing good football while winning, not just grinding results out.

13 minutes ago, Xfaxtor said:

10 points clear now, title is as good as ours

Even I am a little more confident now.... still a long way to go :)

24 minutes ago, Xfaxtor said:

10 points clear now, title is as good as ours

mmmm....there's going to be some twists & turns yet. We have a harder run-in than spuds - their run-in is the easiest of any of the top 6 so they're still a danger - city not so much now. Our two next games are critical. If we can get at least a win & a draw & remain 8 points clear of spuds then I might start to get excited but not yet.

1 hour ago, youlots said:

mmmm....there's going to be some twists & turns yet. We have a harder run-in than spuds - their run-in is the easiest of any of the top 6 so they're still a danger - city not so much now. Our two next games are critical. If we can get at least a win & a draw & remain 8 points clear of spuds then I might start to get excited but not yet.

Spurs have won 4 away games in total this season...

its over

We have to lose 3 and draw 1 with anybody else taking maximum points to lose the title for the negative thinkers!

Key games to come sth'pton vs united  stoke vs Chelsea  City vs Liverpool.      Arsenal vs City. Burnley vs Spurs. Liverpool vs Everton. United vs Everton Chelsea vs City Stoke vs Liverpool. United vs Chelsea CITY VS UNITED  Sth'pton vs City.  Burnley vs united Chelsea vs sth'pton  Everton vs Chelsea This should help debate who else you think might drop points from key games.

We are in good shape but I don't like this talk about it's over.

 

still 33points up for grabs.

lets just take one game at a time 

41 minutes ago, Jezq8 said:

We are in good shape but I don't like this talk about it's over.

 

still 33points up for grabs.

lets just take one game at a time 

have to agree w/ this sentiment, especially after what we just witness between Barca & PSG

1 hour ago, Zero said:

Spurs have won 4 away games in total this season...

yes - a very fair point & spud's achille's heel no doubt and of course they have 6 away games left of which 2 are derbies. We have only 5 away left of which I feel though, 4 will be tough games: Stoke, Utd, Toffies & Baggies & we have struggled at Goodison & the Hawthorns in recent years. Both of us have very good records at home this year & one would not expect that to change.

moreover, I don't feel my position is 'negative' per se (not from you Zero) and I don't appreciate the dig.

No doubt it is ours to lose but I remain wary just the same.