Short version: http://11tegen11.net/2014/02/10/what-is-expg/

Long version: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals

What a load of nonsense. I've been involved in predictive and preventative maintenance in the past, and it worked with a high degree of accuracy because there were a lot of knowns and constants, very few outliers. But football isn't played by machines, it just can't be distilled down to equations and expectations.

Just got to look at as is there anyone out there within a reasonable budget better than him out there that wants to come to us? For me not really, he has superb ability more of a build up player than a Cutting edge player would actually like to see him play as part of a 3 man midfield and see how he gets on.

 

To be honest, there are thousands of players in the world, i'm sure there are plenty we could find that are better than Willian, we just need to look in the right places.

to be fair I think you're both saying the same thing. 

 

We might have meant the same but certainly wasn't saying the same. Anyway, I'm happy to concede that dkw thinks I'm right ;)

 

Relying on stats only is like analysing a game based on the highlights. That doesn't mean though that stats can be extremly useful to understand trends and thus refute or corroborate longstanding theories. For anyone interested in stats used right for football I suggest to read this book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Numbers-Game-Everything-About-Football/dp/0241963621/

Wow on a slightly drunken read this is a pretty pathetic attempt, especially for something that they are claiming is 'the next big step that is being taken now in football analytics.' I will try do some further reading in the morning whilst slightly more sober but still it looks pretty abysmal. 

At best this is a betting/score predictor tool and nothing more.

 

I agree, it seems more of a guesswork than a proved concept. It also disregards form, or more exactly how rapidly form can change. A glance at the predicted table in the second article clearly shows the method to be faulty.

 

What a load of nonsense. I've been involved in predictive and preventative maintenance in the past, and it worked with a high degree of accuracy because there were a lot of knowns and constants, very few outliers. But football isn't played by machines, it just can't be distilled down to equations and expectations.

 

Partially it can be. However stats also show us that the importance of luch is higher in football than in other sports where skill is much more dominant (that's why basketball or tennis are more suitable for betting). In football the skill/luck ratio is roughly 1:1 which makes statistical analysis extremly hard.

never really rated him. seems to have the ability but his attitude is fairly poor. just comes across as the type of player who thinks he just needs to turn up and everything will magically fall into place. He's been part of the problem in a lot of games this season. tin hat on!

never really rated him. seems to have the ability but his attitude is fairly poor. just comes across as the type of player who thinks he just needs to turn up and everything will magically fall into place. He's been part of the problem in a lot of games this season. tin hat on!

 

You sure you're in the right thread?

never really rated him. seems to have the ability but his attitude is fairly poor. just comes across as the type of player who thinks he just needs to turn up and everything will magically fall into place. He's been part of the problem in a lot of games this season. tin hat on!

 

Thought I was in the Hazard thread then.

Sell him and buy who? If we buy someone and he doesn't hit the heights and 100% of the time do we sell them? We have a new set up next season so I would much prefer we keep him.

 

I would buy Mahrez and I don't think Leicester would say no to 40-50mil.

I think he's a player who can still be quite useful for the team however everyone has a price, 50mils seems like a good business, just not sure if the timing is right though this summer..

unfortunately you are fighting against the tide with this argument.

 

you are correct, obviously, but you may as well not even bother writing it. this argument has been long lost when it comes to talking about football now.

 

people think that more information means a more informed debate but that clearly isn't the case. 

 

this is how the majority of young people (in my experience) view football-  through the hyperbole of edited footage, through computer games and through numbers on the internet. they aren't completely to blame- football is too expensive for people to watch live and often. their first interactions are through the things I mention and eventually that conception calcifies.

 

the result is people who don't have the tools to read the game, and who see eleven independent individuals on the pitch rather than one team- a living thing in itself, made up of people dependent on, and affected by, one another.

 

 

I think that the Pundits on TV have a lot to do with it too.  The over analysis pre and post match is, I feel to blame for this.  WE get hours of nonsense in the build up, and then we get hours of nonsense again after all the build up diatribe has predictably been proven wrong.  Even then, during the game we have an endless stream of stats thrown at us: "Cesc Fabregas with those 3 assists has moved to 1 assist behind Rooney" etc.

 

Then yes, as you say, the likes of video games are another key to all this.  Football manager, FIFA, whatever.  They allow you to go in and train players in specific areas so they become better passers, goal scorers, tacklers, whatever.  I've read people talk about players in a completely non tongue-in-cheek way based solely on what they know of them from Football Manager.

 

Stats are useful, but I feel that they are used to fill in the gaps of never ending coverage; therefore, they are becoming more and more a part of the conversation.  Dare I say, it's a very USA based influence?  Baseball has stats for days, NFL is the same.  They just had the NFL Draft this past weekend, and after every selection you get inundated with their stats to justify the selection of that player for the position the team needed.

Anybody got a video of him pointing to his badge against spurs? I can't embed the facebook video

Edited May 2, 201610 yr by Haz139

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOmQeVbFDJs

Gave 200% of himself yesterday, good performance.

Gave 200% of himself yesterday, good performance.

William ran around loads and showed his badge to the Spurs supporters. But quality wise he was dreadful. It just showed the difference between a player like him and Hazard with one goal. Hazard at his best can run the show, Willian might get you a freekick here or there.

he is a great workhorse, but barring the few goals this season, he isn't offering a whole lot. he is like a brazilian milner but a little more technically proficient. i fail to see exactly which other players (himself included) offer us that attacking threat (?). we are struggling to create clear cut chances against the better sides, and when we somehow do, we haven't got the players to finish. 

Edited May 3, 201610 yr by enigma

he is a great workhorse, but barring the few goals this season, he isn't offering a whole lot. he is like a brazilian milner but a little more technically proficient. i fail to see exactly which other players (himself included) offer us that attacking threat (?). we are struggling to create clear cut chances against the better sides, and when we somehow do, we haven't got the players to finish.

Your right, take away the occasion of last night and the running and he was pretty awful. It's just the lack of creativity and I hate to say is worse than Oscars. That's the problem with Chelsea we don't offer a striker a lot of chances so we rely on Hazard too much.

William has good pace so I just think run down the wing and throw in some crosses. Simple but effective.

Look at Spurs 3 players behind the forward - Son scores and the other 2 with an assist each.

I wouldn't say it was a good performance, not bad either just average

 

The best thing he did all game was when he dribbled past 3 players in the Spurs box, layed it off to Fabregas who then picked out Hazard superbly. Unfortunately the cross was blocked by Walker as it would have been a certain goal by Costa otherwise. 

Was the typical Willian performance for me.

Tons of work rate and effort but very little craft or excitement from him.

Unless you're Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid, you have to have a player like Willian.

 

He's tenacious, runs around (sometimes like a headless chicken) till he's completely knackered and the biggest example is when he tracked Lamela's run in the second half which if he hadn't would have been 3-1 and game over.

If you put Willian in a side with Hazard and Mkhitaryan for example, you would understand why he's so important to us because the other two won't defend as much.

 

Love him.

Unless you're Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid, you have to have a player like Willian.

 

He's tenacious, runs around (sometimes like a headless chicken) till he's completely knackered and the biggest example is when he tracked Lamela's run in the second half which if he hadn't would have been 3-1 and game over.

If you put Willian in a side with Hazard and Mkhitaryan for example, you would understand why he's so important to us because the other two won't defend as much.

 

Love him.

 

Has he already won the CFC player of the season or is he about to?

 

He's good, but as I said in the other thread, he's not a match-winner like Hazard. He's okay at a lot of things but not brilliant at any one thing (bar the few free-kicks earlier in the season). I like him but accept that he doesn't score enough, doesn't create enough and although he does track back, he does still switch off at times. There was one last night where he completely let his man go and it could have cost us. Handy player, but I would still sell if the right price was offered.

Some of the rhetoric am seeing in here is shocking  

Not gonna lie I was hoping Willian was gonna hit Danny Rose last night. Or at least leave a late stud on him. 

Unless you're Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid, you have to have a player like Willian.

 

He's tenacious, runs around (sometimes like a headless chicken) till he's completely knackered and the biggest example is when he tracked Lamela's run in the second half which if he hadn't would have been 3-1 and game over.

If you put Willian in a side with Hazard and Mkhitaryan for example, you would understand why he's so important to us because the other two won't defend as much.

 

Love him.

Basically he is exactly the same as Ramires. Ramires lacked end product but came up with a piece of magic here or there. His first touch was horrendous though and passing wasn't great. But like you I do believe every team needs a runner, it's just you only need one.

Not gonna lie I was hoping Willian was gonna hit Danny Rose last night. Or at least leave a late stud on him.

Spurs players are like those sort of mouthy people who go out and start a fight but when it gets messy can't be seen for s*** and leave there big mates to sort it out.

Handy player, but I would still sell if the right price was offered.

 

And replace with who? Cuadrado? Musonda? 

 

I agree Willian's end product could still improve but he's still an invaluable player for us. Oscar and Loftus-Cheek (if played at #10) need to step up, not Willian.

 

He's our POTY, I wouldn't sell for £70 million.

Edited May 3, 201610 yr by the special one