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Joško Gvardiol


mwblue10

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Was rumored earlier in the spring/summer and has popped back into the mill over the past few days. Sounds like the priority is Kounde or Kimpembe but should those deals not materialize then we will go back for Gvardiol.

I think it could work if we stick to a back 3. However, if we move to a back 4 in the future it could be tough. Assuming Colwill stays, if we sign Gvardiol then these 2 would be our future CB pairing, in theory. Both left footed, so not really sure how practical it would be to have a left footed RCB in a 4. But in a 3, one of them could take the Silva role in the center, perhaps.

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28 minutes ago, Deino said:

Why is there a mention of Barca with everyone we're linked with? It's so annoying

The state of the media these days creating hysteria and regurgitating social media nonsense to generate clicks.  

No doubt we've been linked with Barca a few times this window, but this is being dragged out more than an Eastenders story line now.  They'll probably end the transfer window on a cliff hanger and continue it into the January window.

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52 minutes ago, evissy said:

Check out Swiss Ramble twitter-thread on Barcelona financies. 

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1548917012021145606?s=20&t=F1KT0AQt1-0SxWEhpG5DWQ

 

That's an excellent report, yet none of this seems to be in the mainstream. I am amazed that Sky's Kavel Solekhol (Spelling?) isn't yet patronisingly telling us what it all means with patronising....long.....gaps....between.....the...words.....he...wants.....to ....empahsise.

I am still picking up in the middle of that report that there is €60m of deferred wages from 20/21, so that has probably increased further still since. De Jong's will be what €20m of that.

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1 hour ago, WhiteWall said:

That's an excellent report, yet none of this seems to be in the mainstream. I am amazed that Sky's Kavel Solekhol (Spelling?) isn't yet patronisingly telling us what it all means with patronising....long.....gaps....between.....the...words.....he...wants.....to ....empahsise.

I am still picking up in the middle of that report that there is €60m of deferred wages from 20/21, so that has probably increased further still since. De Jong's will be what €20m of that.

I was speaking with a few Barcelona fans the other day and they were basically saying that they will not accept becoming the next Milan for 10 years and want to be competing at the top no matter what. I also see this kind of thinking from Barcelona fans all over social media. It's crazy. They will happily risk the existence of their club to keep the club competing with the best in the short term. I could never be like that with Chelsea, I would give up competing for titles in a second if it meant the club survived. 

And these fans call us plastic fans? The only reason they follow Barcelona is to see them win trophies, nothing else matters to them.

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5 minutes ago, Scott Harris said:

I was speaking with a few Barcelona fans the other day and they were basically saying that they will not accept becoming the next Milan for 10 years and want to be competing at the top no matter what. I also see this kind of thinking from Barcelona fans all over social media. It's crazy. They will happily risk the existence of their club to keep the club competing with the best in the short term. I could never be like that with Chelsea, I would give up competing for titles in a second if it meant the club survived. 

And these fans call us plastic fans? The only reason they follow Barcelona is to see them win trophies, nothing else matters to them.

And yet they blindly continue with these presidency process, leaving their very existence of the club in the hands of individuals that have little or no accountability.

I am staggered with the approach they are adopting when you look at who they are buying and chasing. If AM or Sevilla can pull a rabbit out of the hat this year I can easily see this mob ending up third. Not a prayer of winning la liga, not with our old back line, penalty taker Raphinha and made of glass Dembele. No way.

Surely there must ge somebody in their boardroom has got the minerals to say to Laporta, "for the love if God man, just stop"

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15 hours ago, evissy said:

Check out Swiss Ramble twitter-thread on Barcelona financies. 

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1548917012021145606?s=20&t=F1KT0AQt1-0SxWEhpG5DWQ

 

I read that thread. The key point is the sale of the TV rights. I won't use currency symbols but I am talking millions of euros. Barc sold 10% for 25 years for 207 m. 10% of last reported number is about 16.6m. So the way to think about this is the net present value (NPV). I used to write "NPV" every day at work in relation to something or other.

There are two parameters , the annual growth rate of TV rights which could be positive or negative depending on the popularity of the sport and the popularity = track record of Barca within the sport. Generally I would think of the growth rate as about 2%, that's a pretty big compound growth rate over 25 years. 1.02^25 =1.64, and 1.03^25 =2.1, 1.05^25=3.4 for instance.

The other parameter is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) that is the discount rate or the time value of money. one euro received in one years time is worth less than one euro received today. The percentage difference is the disount rate or cost of capital lets call it K.

So we have 207 = 16.6 growing at say 2% and discounted at say 7% for 25 years. When you work the sums through and if you assume that the value of the TV rights is growing at 2-3% per year compound then the k or WACC works out to 7.5-8.5%. So WACC is a combination of debt and equity and by the time you allow for the tax shield on the debt the seller is likely getting a double digit return one equity or more. 

in short it was an expensive deal. Selling 15% for 400 is about the right price if you assume barca's tv rights grow at 2%. Historic growth in tv rights is a lot more than 2% so all in all Barca is paying through the nose to buy some players this year. 

The result will be a limit on player wages in future years probably equal to the wages of one starting 11 player for ever 10% of the rights they sell. Or at least that's what I get from 30 minutes looking at Swiss Ramble thread.

The only way its a good deal for Barca is if the value of the tv rights is going to fall so that the 16.6 m gets less every year.

Edited by ozboy
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3 hours ago, ozboy said:

I read that thread. The key point is the sale of the TV rights. I won't use currency symbols but I am talking millions of euros. Barc sold 10% for 25 years for 207 m. 10% of last reported number is about 16.6m. So the way to think about this is the net present value (NPV). I used to write "NPV" every day at work in relation to something or other.

There are two parameters , the annual growth rate of TV rights which could be positive or negative depending on the popularity of the sport and the popularity = track record of Barca within the sport. Generally I would think of the growth rate as about 2%, that's a pretty big compound growth rate over 25 years. 1.02^25 =1.64, and 1.03^25 =2.1, 1.05^25=3.4 for instance.

The other parameter is the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) that is the discount rate or the time value of money. one euro received in one years time is worth less than one euro received today. The percentage difference is the disount rate or cost of capital lets call it K.

So we have 207 = 16.6 growing at say 2% and discounted at say 7% for 25 years. When you work the sums through and if you assume that the value of the TV rights is growing at 2-3% per year compound then the k or WACC works out to 7.5-8.5%. So WACC is a combination of debt and equity and by the time you allow for the tax shield on the debt the seller is likely getting a double digit return one equity or more. 

in short it was an expensive deal. Selling 15% for 400 is about the right price if you assume barca's tv rights grow at 2%. Historic growth in tv rights is a lot more than 2% so all in all Barca is paying through the nose to buy some players this year. 

The result will be a limit on player wages in future years probably equal to the wages of one starting 11 player for ever 10% of the rights they sell. Or at least that's what I get from 30 minutes looking at Swiss Ramble thread.

The only way its a good deal for Barca is if the value of the tv rights is going to fall so that the 16.6 m gets less every year.

f**k me, you not got anything better to do than write an essay on Barca finances?! Just looking out for you. There’s more to life than football pal hahaha.

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32 minutes ago, thebluekid said:

f**k me, you not got anything better to do than write an essay on Barca finances?! Just looking out for you. There’s more to life than football pal hahaha.

football finance is finance and I'm an analyst. Analysts analyse, its what we do. Could have been famous but I got paralysis by analysis and never moved on.

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16 hours ago, Scott Harris said:

I was speaking with a few Barcelona fans the other day and they were basically saying that they will not accept becoming the next Milan for 10 years and want to be competing at the top no matter what. I also see this kind of thinking from Barcelona fans all over social media. It's crazy. They will happily risk the existence of their club to keep the club competing with the best in the short term. I could never be like that with Chelsea, I would give up competing for titles in a second if it meant the club survived. 

And these fans call us plastic fans? The only reason they follow Barcelona is to see them win trophies, nothing else matters to them.

I guarantee if (when) they get bought by a Saudi royal family they will love it and be right behind it, after spending years whining about us. 

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12 minutes ago, ozboy said:

football finance is finance and I'm an analyst. Analysts analyse, its what we do. Could have been famous but I got paralysis by analysis and never moved on.

You’re excused then. I’m getting worried by people!!! 
Paralysis by analysis… hahaha. I like that.

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1 minute ago, axman2526 said:

RBL have let it be known through their media sources that, with 4 years left on his deal, it would take a huge, far larger than De Ligt fee offer, for them to even consider letting him go.

In other words don't waste our time.

Then we'll surely screw around, bid 10 mill less than their price, then put a player + cash deal, agree personal terms then suddenly chase Ake, Kimpembe and other defenders around Europe. When none of it works out then we panick and come running back to him. But in the meantime, Barca would've convinced him to join them. 

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1 minute ago, Nick05 said:

Then we'll surely screw around, bid 10 mill less than their price, then put a player + cash deal, agree personal terms then suddenly chase Ake, Kimpembe and other defenders around Europe. When none of it works out then we panick and come running back to him. But in the meantime, Barca would've convinced him to join them. 

Is like you have seen this play before...

Oh My God Wow GIF by The Roku Channel

 

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If we arent getting Kounde, i would break the bank for Gvardiol. If we switch to a back 4, you are effectively getting a fantastic left back and centre back for the next 10 years, (or before he gets tapped up by spain). 

Seems expensive now, but he looks like a real future proof signing, in any system. 

Im worried we are spending money without a sporting director, we dont want to find ourselves trying to shift players again in 12 months time. 

Im very happy with Koulibaly, as i think we needed quality immediately in that defence, I can understand Sterling, although not my favourite player, he knows the league, the orice was okay, and i think he will do a job. 

If we are still looking for 4 more players, tney need to young with high potential, because it is getting increasingly harder to sell players 28+, maybe its the pandemic, but players seem more willing to see their contracts out now than ever before.

So Gvardiol fits in nicely for for me, experienced enough, and with enough quality to play straight away, but young enough that if it didnt work out, there would be plenty of suitors willing to pay furthet down the line.

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8 minutes ago, Sconnie Blue said:

Either we break the bank for this bloke or Fofana. 

 

I would be ok with either to be honest, both would be able to do a job now as well as for at least the next 5 years. The issue we now have is clubs will know we were very publicly in for Kounde for around £55m-£60m and any other club we approach will know how desperate we are for a good centre back and probably won't accept anything less than what we was willing to pay for Kounde. 

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