13 minutes ago, bluedave said:

The goal-to-minute stats for a few hours of football don't really prove him to be our 'best' forward. If you said most 'in-form at the moment' then I'd agree, although until recently Abraham was in fine form and contributing hugely to the overall team performance (which doesn't show up in the statistics). Hopefully Giroud will feature more in the first 11 in the near future. The Christman period will probably be mental so it's good we three decent forwards available to us.

I agree that stats can be misleading and do not tell the full story. But just look at the minutes to goals right there. He has more goals than Abraham despite having just over 1/4 of his game time, that is ridiculous. 

Stuff like this cannot be avoided is what I am saying. I can't stand that France manager, but I can see why he wants Giroud playing more, there's a reason why he's favoured over Lacazette, Martial, Benzema etc. 

I think he's just too good to be our 3rd choice striker. It might appear reactionary but there are some things you just cannot ignore. Giroud should be playing more from now on or we will likely be losing a good player who is still very good and capable. 

Edited December 3, 20205 yr by Slojo

I actually think Lampard is managing Giroud's playing time really well. 

With the frequency of games this season being played every 3/4 days it's unlikely a 34 year old is going to be effective starting too often. 

He's picking the moment to give Giroud minutes and starts and is being repaid with solid contributions whenever he's on the pitch. 

I don't think Lampard will pick him to start against Leeds, which will be harsh for a player that's just scored four goals in one game. I do think he's going to be getting a respectable number of minutes over during December with the games coming thick and fast. 

3 minutes ago, ForeverCarefree said:

I actually think Lampard is managing Giroud's playing time really well. 

With the frequency of games this season being played every 3/4 days it's unlikely a 34 year old is going to be effective starting too often. 

He's picking the moment to give Giroud minutes and starts and is being repaid with solid contributions whenever he's on the pitch. 

I don't think Lampard will pick him to start against Leeds, which will be harsh for a player that's just scored four goals in one game. I do think he's going to be getting a respectable number of minutes over during December with the games coming thick and fast. 

I don't think it's harsh anyway, as you said, 34 years old, almost 90 minutes. We rested Werner and Abraham who are fresh, personally I want to see Werner in the middle like we originally intended for anyway. I think he's the perfect choice for the Leeds game to play as our lone striker. 

After that I hope we can see Giroud play more Premier League games, especially now that we only have one CL game left until god knows when. 

12 minutes ago, ForeverCarefree said:

I actually think Lampard is managing Giroud's playing time really well. 

With the frequency of games this season being played every 3/4 days it's unlikely a 34 year old is going to be effective starting too often. 

He's picking the moment to give Giroud minutes and starts and is being repaid with solid contributions whenever he's on the pitch. 

I don't think Lampard will pick him to start against Leeds, which will be harsh for a player that's just scored four goals in one game. I do think he's going to be getting a respectable number of minutes over during December with the games coming thick and fast. 

I think (hope) we are finally going to see Werner down the middle with Pulisic on the left. Kante, Kai and Mount in the middle. Some scintillating pace we'll have.

5 hours ago, erskblue said:

What a finish.

His boots clash with the socks though, I'm surprised nobody has commented about this fashion faux-pas. It really takes the shine off his performance. 

57 minutes ago, Slojo said:

I don't think it's harsh anyway, as you said, 34 years old, almost 90 minutes. We rested Werner and Abraham who are fresh, personally I want to see Werner in the middle like we originally intended for anyway. I think he's the perfect choice for the Leeds game to play as our lone striker. 

After that I hope we can see Giroud play more Premier League games, especially now that we only have one CL game left until god knows when. 

Horses for courses, we have 3 great strikers who on their day can score hat tricks, Frank has got to plan ahead for the whole season, no good to Giroudor us  if he gets knackered by xmas and forgotten by the new year. cherry pick his games and reap the rewards. turbo cant play up top when we face teams parking the bus, i think thats why Frank has played him out left so often to give him the space, and it has worked, its just been his finishing of late that's let him down.

9 minutes ago, coco said:

Horses for courses, we have 3 great strikers who on their day can score hat tricks, Frank has got to plan ahead for the whole season, no good to Giroudor us  if he gets knackered by xmas and forgotten by the new year. cherry pick his games and reap the rewards. turbo cant play up top when we face teams parking the bus, i think thats why Frank has played him out left so often to give him the space, and it has worked, its just been his finishing of late that's let him down.

I'm not arguing on Franks decision to keep him out, I already know why he has done it and why Tammy plays. 

But it's not cherry picking, on paper Giroud is actually very underrated statistically, his goals per minutes is very good not just this season. His whole Chelsea career here,. I'm aware that Giroud isn't great by any means, he went missing in Arsenals most important season ever and that's also why they desperately sought replacements and let him go. But despite all that, he's still a great forward and has to be rewarded with more game time in the coming games, which I no doubt expect he will. 

You won't hear me crying if he doesn't play against Leeds, I'm not being irrational here. 

7 minutes ago, Slojo said:

I'm not arguing on Franks decision to keep him out, I already know why he has done it and why Tammy plays. 

But it's not cherry picking, on paper Giroud is actually very underrated statistically, his goals per minutes is very good not just this season. His whole Chelsea career here,. I'm aware that Giroud isn't great by any means, he went missing in Arsenals most important season ever and that's also why they desperately sought replacements and let him go. But despite all that, he's still a great forward and has to be rewarded with more game time in the coming games, which I no doubt expect he will. 

You won't hear me crying if he doesn't play against Leeds, I'm not being irrational here. 

Yeah we will be seeing more and more of him as the season goes on, i think that's why he's still here because Frank has already told him his plans to include him.

When was the last time we had 3 great striking options who are all viable 1st choice ?

Probably get a bashing but I feel Abraham is only good for coming on as substitute, I am not bothered with the top goalscorer with us last year.We would have won against Tottenham had Giroud been playing,I've got nothing against Abraham, but Don’t feel he is good enough. 

3 minutes ago, Bluesince66 said:

We would have won against Tottenham had Giroud been playing,I've got nothing against Abraham, but Don’t feel he is good enough. 

Theres absolutely no way you state that as a fact, Giroud started games last season and had bad games, playing well last night doesnt mean he would definitely have won us the game last week.

11 hours ago, CFCCAN said:

A great night for Giroud and the team but let's not get carried away and swept up in the euphoria.  This Chelsea team is about the future, not the past; Giroud is not going to be starting many games when Tammy and Werner are in front of him and certainly Werner is not going to be playing out on the wing every game now that everyone is back to full fitness.  Yes Giroud certainly is an impact player, a consummate professional and wonderful in the dressing room by all accounts, but the reality is nothing has changed.  If he stays and sees out his contract he will remain the 3rd choice striker and likely miss the Euro's given Dechamps threat, while only picking up 15-20 mins here and there for the remainder of his contract.

While there are rumours floating around that West Ham and Spurs are 'interested' in him, he'd be no better off at these two clubs IMO than he is now....in fact worse in terms of the players that would be around him.  A dilemma for him no doubt, but I think it's time for him to move on in January and make way for the future of our young strikers.  

Just a thought but would it be possible to loan him out for the rest of the season so he can get game time elsewhere and then bring him back as part of the first team coaching staff for the young strikers or even the Academy?  Not sure who has that job right now as I don't see anyone on the list? 

I know this is definitely a wind-up, or an attempt at being funny. Whilst Giroud might not be the future of the club, he is still at the club, and the only big game striker we actually have. As much as i like Tammy, he goes missing in the crunch fixtures. 

Picking up the odd 15 minutes for us, and being loaned out in January, you really don't have a clue do you. I just feel sorry after how well he played after restart, that he hasn't been given more opportunities this season.

24 minutes ago, Bluesince66 said:

Probably get a bashing but I feel Abraham is only good for coming on as substitute, I am not bothered with the top goalscorer with us last year.We would have won against Tottenham had Giroud been playing,I've got nothing against Abraham, but Don’t feel he is good enough. 

If Giroud is in form, for me he should start over Abraham though maybe rest him after 70mins and bring on Abraham.

We have some very good crossers and Abraham cannot control them, Giroud can.

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Slojo said:

I agree that stats can be misleading and do not tell the full story. But just look at the minutes to goals right there. He has more goals than Abraham despite having just over 1/4 of his game time, that is ridiculous. 
 

Statistically, that's actually not a good comparison, because it relies on an untested assumption that Giroud and Abraham will continue to maintain the same scoring rates regardless of minutes played. Regression to the mean is a powerful mistress.

Abraham (0.54) and Giroud (0.58) actually have very similar career goals/90 mins stats, albeit Abraham comes with a much smaller sample size, but in context it still means it is more likely that Giroud's scoring rate will regress over a period of time to be similar to Abraham's. In fact, if we restrict it to goal contributions last season alone, they ended up with identical numbers (0.73)!

A more accurate statistical conclusion would be:

• Chelsea have two competent and in-form target men 
• They are both more similar in output than different but tend to be in-form at different times
• We are similarly likely to score a goal when either is on the pitch.

This actually means there's a lot more pressure on Lampard since the decision should be based on tactics and not a judgement of quality - basically, if we need to get strikers behind the line or press hard we should start Abraham, and if we expect our best chances to come from crosses we should start Giroud. If Ziyech is starting he would probably prefer Abraham whereas Chilwell/James would relish Giroud attacking their crosses. 

That performance last night... man I really hope Frank gives him enough playing time to convince him to stay here. Bc if we get the kind of performances we have in 2020, he is the best backup striker in the prem and potentially Europe. But, if we do have to sell, his price definitely just went up.

Here's to hoping Frank is able to convince him to stay in West London.

4 minutes ago, SydneyChelsea said:

Statistically, that's actually not a good comparison, because it relies on an untested assumption that Giroud and Abraham will continue to maintain the same scoring rates regardless of minutes played. Regression to the mean is a powerful mistress.

Abraham (0.54) and Giroud (0.58) actually have very similar career goals/90 mins stats, albeit Abraham comes with a much smaller sample size, but in context it still means it is more likely that Giroud's scoring rate will regress over a period of time to be similar to Abraham's. In fact, if we restrict it to goal contributions last season alone, they ended up with identical numbers (0.73)!

A more accurate statistical conclusion would be:

• Chelsea have two competent and in-form target men 
• They are both more similar in output than different but tend to be in-form at different times
• We are similarly likely to score a goal when either is on the pitch.

This actually means there's a lot more pressure on Lampard since the decision should be based on tactics and not a judgement of quality - basically, if we need to get strikers behind the line or press hard we should start Abraham, and if we expect our best chances to come from crosses we should start Giroud. If Ziyech is starting he would probably prefer Abraham whereas Chilwell/James would relish Giroud attacking their crosses. 

Giroud just has a slightly better one in the PL under Chelsea but his goals per 90 in all competitions is 0.64, whereas Tammys is 0.54 according to the source you just gave me (good source btw never seen it before). But they aren't that far apart overall when it comes to their total Chelsea careers which is impressive for Abraham given how young he is, goes to show how underrated he was last season.

However, the three points you brought up. You can't neglect the fact that Giroud has a far superior goals to minutes this season than Abraham does. I think out of the two of them it's clear which one is the more clinical out of the two, it's Giroud. 

This is not attacking Abraham, but currently, Giroud is the better forward out of the two. However, if you were to ask me, which one would you pick to leave right now if you had to. Obviously Giroud, because Abraham is up and coming and has potential. That latter part is the exact reason why he's playing more than Giroud. Because let's be fair here, even statistics aside, we can see with our own eyes that Giroud is better in front of goal. That's why from starting on out, I hope Giroud starts getting the nod over Tammy for the next few weeks to see how he does in the league. 

6 hours ago, WeatherMan said:

I tend to agree with the vast majority of your posts Scott but having just stumbled upon this one from about 20 months ago I couldn't resist the urge to rub your nose in it. Olivier '4 goals' Giroud is thankfully still doing the business 😉.

I still stand by that post. At the time, Giroud really was struggling to play 70 minutes (he still does if he is played regularly) and Higuain was not the player we needed, he was too old to adapt to a new league and country. I would still hate to have Giroud as our first choice striker, he can't play every game at his age.

Edited December 3, 20205 yr by Scott Harris

He has to start over Tammy if we want to play for titles. If he has a bad game there's still the option to push Werner into the middle or get Tammy on, but as it stands right now he's just converting a lot better.

29 minutes ago, Slojo said:

Giroud just has a slightly better one in the PL under Chelsea but his goals per 90 in all competitions is 0.64, whereas Tammys is 0.54 according to the source you just gave me (good source btw never seen it before). But they aren't that far apart overall when it comes to their total Chelsea careers which is impressive for Abraham given how young he is, goes to show how underrated he was last season.
 

It's a good site! It's amateur, but it's lot easier to read than Whoscored.  I couldn't see where you got your numbers from though?

Quote

However, the three points you brought up. You can't neglect the fact that Giroud has a far superior goals to minutes this season than Abraham does. I think out of the two of them it's clear which one is the more clinical out of the two, it's Giroud. 

This is where we disagree - not only can I neglect the fact that Giroud currently has a far superior goals-to-minutes, I'm saying that a valid statistical analysis must neglect this, because it doesn't account for the inevitable regression to the mean. As above it is based on an assumption that Giroud's scoring rate will continue, which is statistically unlikely based on career evidence.

The second assumption is that more clinical = more effective. We might intuit this as common sense but it is actually an untested assumption, since chance creation appears to be a better predictor of overall scoring ability than conversion rate. Forwards who are able to generate more shots tend to be more effective overall, with few exceptions (like Vardy and Aguero) who manage the best of both worlds. Giroud might have scored 4 in 5 shots today, but career evidence says that both his scoring rate and the number of shots he took are unlikely to be repeated. Abraham's not much better mind you...

Quote

This is not attacking Abraham, but currently, Giroud is the better forward out of the two. However, if you were to ask me, which one would you pick to leave right now if you had to. Obviously Giroud, because Abraham is up and coming and has potential. That latter part is the exact reason why he's playing more than Giroud. Because let's be fair here, even statistics aside, we can see with our own eyes that Giroud is better in front of goal. That's why from starting on out, I hope Giroud starts getting the nod over Tammy for the next few weeks to see how he does in the league. 

Can we? One seems to score more off the ground, the other is a monster in the air. They both score about the same amount of goals and create the same amount of chances so it brings us back to the conclusion that ultimately it comes down to horses-for-courses; Abraham if we need to run in behind/press, Giroud if we want to score from crosses.

What i'd like to see is both of them get more game time - instead of Lampard using the benched option at 75-80mins, give the started 60mins and the bench 30 mins so that each has ample time to make an impact. Both are equally likely to result in a goal.

 

Edited December 3, 20205 yr by SydneyChelsea

1 minute ago, SydneyChelsea said:

It's a good site! It's amateur, but it's lot easier to read than Whoscored.  I couldn't see where you got your numbers from though?

This is where we disagree - not only can I neglect the fact that Giroud currently has a far superior goals-to-minutes, I'm saying that a valid statistical analysis must neglect this, because it doesn't account for the inevitable regression to the mean. As above it is based on an assumption that Giroud's scoring rate will continue, which is statistically unlikely based on career evidence.

The second assumption is that more clinical = more effective. We might intuit this as common sense but it is actually an untested assumption, since chance creation appears to be a better predictor of overall scoring ability than conversion rate. Forwards who are able to generate more shots tend to be more effective overall, with few exceptions (like Vardy and Aguero) who manage the best of both worlds. Giroud might have scored 4 in 5 shots today, but career evidence says that both his scoring rate and the number of shots he took are unlikely to be repeated. Abraham's not much better mind you...

Can we? One seems to score more off the ground, the other is a monster in the air. They both score about the same amount of goals and create the same amount of chances so it brings us back to the conclusion that ultimately it comes down to horses-for-courses; Abraham if we need to run in behind/press, Giroud if we want to score from crosses.

 

 

I got my numbers from Transfermarkt which is usually pretty reliable as far as I can tell. 

And if Giroud has more goals than Abraham despite just over 1/4 of the minutes, how does he not have a better goals to minutes? I recognise the argument you're putting forward in the long term and it's a fair argument. But as of right now, Giroud has been more clinical this season than Abraham, and better in front of goal on paper. 

I'm not saying Giroud is Ronaldo in front of goal, but I said it a week ago, if you give Tammy and Giroud the same amount of game time this season, Giroud will probably score more goals. Again, have to be clear here, this is not a diss towards Tammy Abraham. I'm talking about the here and now, Tammy will get better, he's still young and a good striker, but I just think that Giroud is better out of the two currently. And that's not just me going onboard the statistics I posted, that's my own personal opinion. Giroud had 3 shots, 3 on target and 4 goals against Sevilla, that's clinical. He is still a very good striker and possibly our best when it comes to scoring goals. 

 Scoring the equaliser tonight. Photograph: Chris Lee - Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC/Getty Images

Great goal by Giroud, he anticipates every cross, him and Reece James deserve each other. 

Never having been a quick forward, he gets his goals by good movement. This is were Tammy can learn so much from him. Runs to near post especially can get a striker double figures.

Very disappointed with him tonight. He only scored 1 goal.

His movement for crosses is incredible, the way he positions himself to win the majority of headers and balls in to the box. Particularly the move towards the back post then the near for the goal was terrific. Abraham should be studying him closely as that’s the weakest part of his game in my opinion and it would help him massively to learn from Giroud. It looks like they have a great relationship from the after game scenes etc when either of them score!

1 minute ago, EdinburghBlue said:

His movement for crosses is incredible, the way he positions himself to win the majority of headers and balls in to the box. Particularly the move towards the back post then the near for the goal was terrific. Abraham should be studying him closely as that’s the weakest part of his game in my opinion and it would help him massively to learn from Giroud. It looks like they have a great relationship from the after game scenes etc when either of them score!

He's lethal on the front post, he just anticipates absolutely anything, he'll do the splits if it means he can get his toenail onto it. 

Whereas that's something Abraham has to improve in, especially in the air.