2 hours ago, I am a CPA said:

When you're in a pressure situation at the highest levels of any field in any workplace and especially in a field where you need good PR, these things are all calculated, don't be too naive to think that they aren't.

Absolute nonsense, it's more likely he's bringing this up as he wants f**king morons to stop wanting his children to die. He's not using aa PR at all, and anyone who thinks that is a bellend unable to have empathy. 

There's a massive problem with anonymous c**ts on socially media thinking they are able to say and do anything without consequences, the more this is highlighted the more chance something gets done to stop it.

 

6 hours ago, CFCCAN said:

I mainly deal with crime stats - without going into the weeds simply looking at the table that you posted (if that's what you are referring to) to my mind a lot of that data is not relevant to today's game so you are comparing apples to oranges, so you'd have to put an * in some cases. The game has changed, especially in terms of the offside rule and the use of VAR, which of course has only been introduced for a couple of seasons, so trying to compare GF for instance for Potter first 25 games against say Docherty in 66 is nonsense, or Williams in 1905 is pointless, same goes for GA in my opinion especially since the introduction of VAR.  Those days you had a linesman with a flag, if he missed the offside the goal stood; any goal today is checked by VAR and can be ruled out by a whisker of offside. I would be comparing era to era perhaps. I'd also want to be comparing tactics and formations - i.e. what was his % win rate etc when playing 433 over 532, then compare that for example against the the other CFC managers of the same era who played the same formation. Does weather play a factor? Does travel play a factor? players available play a factor and so on.  There are so many variables and sets of data you can look at an analyze, that's why teams here in NA have a complete data analysis team to drill down to fine details, which we know Boehly and his team are doing.  NA sports have been doing it since at least 2003 with the infamous 'Moneyball' Red Sox team and then it became widely used a few years later, although they were using a form of analytics even earlier especially in NFL.  Even football teams in the England and Europe were using data sets early on players in particular.

On the surface, we know that Boehly looked at Potter's stats including no doubt his tactics, formations and xg, despite Brighton not scoring a lot of goals and I suspect that Boehly would have been looking at players that could turn that xg into actual goals and turn those Brighton draws and close margin losses into wins with the expected conversion rate.  Problem is it isn't working at the moment.  Based on what we've heard, this is a long term project and Boehly has set fire to the Bridge and basically tore the heart out of everything to start afresh...a new company start up if you like and there are going to be bumps along the way, but I am sure that the start that Potter has had maybe has Boehly 2nd guessing his stats. But would Potters stats be any different if he had walked into a healthy squad and not one decimated by injuries, regardless of the new signings since he came in.  My guess is they probably would be better than what we are seeing.  The injuries together with new players sure isn't making life easy for him, again all these are factors to consider when looking at some of the data sets.  Are we passing the ball more forward than we did under TT or Conte..probably, so the chance creation will naturally increase. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Potter as I think despite his stats which Boehly looked at, in my mind he's not got the experience to for a club this size. This is being thrown in at the deep end and he'd better show signs of improvement now more or less everyone is fit.  But you never know with Boehly, unless we are flirting with relegation he will rely on his stats and data to eventually show that Potter was the right choice....even if it takes a few years.

Sorry its a bit long winded...

Long winded but excellent, very well written. 

Diego Simeone would do a better job albeit ugly. 

7 hours ago, CFCCAN said:

I mainly deal with crime stats - without going into the weeds simply looking at the table that you posted (if that's what you are referring to) to my mind a lot of that data is not relevant to today's game so you are comparing apples to oranges, so you'd have to put an * in some cases. The game has changed, especially in terms of the offside rule and the use of VAR, which of course has only been introduced for a couple of seasons, so trying to compare GF for instance for Potter first 25 games against say Docherty in 66 is nonsense, or Williams in 1905 is pointless, same goes for GA in my opinion especially since the introduction of VAR.  Those days you had a linesman with a flag, if he missed the offside the goal stood; any goal today is checked by VAR and can be ruled out by a whisker of offside. I would be comparing era to era perhaps. I'd also want to be comparing tactics and formations - i.e. what was his % win rate etc when playing 433 over 532, then compare that for example against the the other CFC managers of the same era who played the same formation. Does weather play a factor? Does travel play a factor? players available play a factor and so on.  There are so many variables and sets of data you can look at an analyze, that's why teams here in NA have a complete data analysis team to drill down to fine details, which we know Boehly and his team are doing.  NA sports have been doing it since at least 2003 with the infamous 'Moneyball' Red Sox team and then it became widely used a few years later, although they were using a form of analytics even earlier especially in NFL.  Even football teams in the England and Europe were using data sets early on players in particular.

On the surface, we know that Boehly looked at Potter's stats including no doubt his tactics, formations and xg, despite Brighton not scoring a lot of goals and I suspect that Boehly would have been looking at players that could turn that xg into actual goals and turn those Brighton draws and close margin losses into wins with the expected conversion rate.  Problem is it isn't working at the moment.  Based on what we've heard, this is a long term project and Boehly has set fire to the Bridge and basically tore the heart out of everything to start afresh...a new company start up if you like and there are going to be bumps along the way, but I am sure that the start that Potter has had maybe has Boehly 2nd guessing his stats. But would Potters stats be any different if he had walked into a healthy squad and not one decimated by injuries, regardless of the new signings since he came in.  My guess is they probably would be better than what we are seeing.  The injuries together with new players sure isn't making life easy for him, again all these are factors to consider when looking at some of the data sets.  Are we passing the ball more forward than we did under TT or Conte..probably, so the chance creation will naturally increase. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Potter as I think despite his stats which Boehly looked at, in my mind he's not got the experience to for a club this size. This is being thrown in at the deep end and he'd better show signs of improvement now more or less everyone is fit.  But you never know with Boehly, unless we are flirting with relegation he will rely on his stats and data to eventually show that Potter was the right choice....even if it takes a few years.

Sorry its a bit long winded...

Thanks for taking the time to reply. Excellent post and certainly some thought-provoking fresh perspective !

10 hours ago, Drogba1 said:

what does this chart even mean

Sorry it was a bit cryptic...

3 hours ago, I am a CPA said:

If every person who had death threats got a bodyguard there would be not be enough bodyguards in this world.

And who's to say they're Chelsea fans as well? I'm not saying I agree with the death threats because I don't, at all, but can you imagine every manager or player at every press conference saying they get death threats or what sort of abuse they get on social media? 

There was no need to reveal this to the public but Potter used this press conference to take the heat off him by saying 3 things.

1. Came in and started laughing about just being in a crisis meeting.

2. Blaming Tuchel and the pre-season for our current form.

3. Revealing that he and his family are getting death threats (This should have been kept and dealt with internally).

No doubt this was all pre-meditated. Some people will quote me and say "Hurr you agree with the death threats because of what you're saying!! You're a terrible person!!". When you're in a pressure situation at the highest levels of any field in any workplace and especially in a field where you need good PR, these things are all calculated, don't be too naive to think that they aren't.

I don't wish anything bad personally on Potter but I am waiting for the day he leaves, and obviously those that are making the threats need to be dealt with internally.

8 hours ago, CFCCAN said:

I mainly deal with crime stats - without going into the weeds simply looking at the table that you posted (if that's what you are referring to) to my mind a lot of that data is not relevant to today's game so you are comparing apples to oranges, so you'd have to put an * in some cases. The game has changed, especially in terms of the offside rule and the use of VAR, which of course has only been introduced for a couple of seasons, so trying to compare GF for instance for Potter first 25 games against say Docherty in 66 is nonsense, or Williams in 1905 is pointless, same goes for GA in my opinion especially since the introduction of VAR.  Those days you had a linesman with a flag, if he missed the offside the goal stood; any goal today is checked by VAR and can be ruled out by a whisker of offside. I would be comparing era to era perhaps. I'd also want to be comparing tactics and formations - i.e. what was his % win rate etc when playing 433 over 532, then compare that for example against the the other CFC managers of the same era who played the same formation. Does weather play a factor? Does travel play a factor? players available play a factor and so on.  There are so many variables and sets of data you can look at an analyze, that's why teams here in NA have a complete data analysis team to drill down to fine details, which we know Boehly and his team are doing.  NA sports have been doing it since at least 2003 with the infamous 'Moneyball' Red Sox team and then it became widely used a few years later, although they were using a form of analytics even earlier especially in NFL.  Even football teams in the England and Europe were using data sets early on players in particular.

On the surface, we know that Boehly looked at Potter's stats including no doubt his tactics, formations and xg, despite Brighton not scoring a lot of goals and I suspect that Boehly would have been looking at players that could turn that xg into actual goals and turn those Brighton draws and close margin losses into wins with the expected conversion rate.  Problem is it isn't working at the moment.  Based on what we've heard, this is a long term project and Boehly has set fire to the Bridge and basically tore the heart out of everything to start afresh...a new company start up if you like and there are going to be bumps along the way, but I am sure that the start that Potter has had maybe has Boehly 2nd guessing his stats. But would Potters stats be any different if he had walked into a healthy squad and not one decimated by injuries, regardless of the new signings since he came in.  My guess is they probably would be better than what we are seeing.  The injuries together with new players sure isn't making life easy for him, again all these are factors to consider when looking at some of the data sets.  Are we passing the ball more forward than we did under TT or Conte..probably, so the chance creation will naturally increase. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Potter as I think despite his stats which Boehly looked at, in my mind he's not got the experience to for a club this size. This is being thrown in at the deep end and he'd better show signs of improvement now more or less everyone is fit.  But you never know with Boehly, unless we are flirting with relegation he will rely on his stats and data to eventually show that Potter was the right choice....even if it takes a few years.

Sorry its a bit long winded...

Good post. Really like posts like this here. More than just simply voicing out something like "Potter out"....

Tuchel talked about creating enough chances is the metric he follows. If the team creates enough, goals and wins will follow. He spoke about that countless times. He makes sure that happens in games, players finish the chances. He can't do much more during a match. 

One thing I also don't like here is the idea that Potter didn't have the pedigree nor the history from a big club. He didn't. Many managers don't. But he didn't jump from Norway or something weird like that, he came from a club that was above Chelsea in the Prem table. Why is that blocking from hiring him? You calculate additional risk for that but with Potter you can plan for long term instead of someone like Tuchel. 

We have young players with relatively inexperienced manager who is improving players and teams. In my mind that fits. Will it work for long term, time will tell. MU trusted OGS and it failed. 

Mourinho would say he has these babies and in no way he should be winning games. 

2 hours ago, dkw said:

Absolute nonsense, it's more likely he's bringing this up as he wants f**king morons to stop wanting his children to die. He's not using aa PR at all, and anyone who thinks that is a bellend unable to have empathy. 

There's a massive problem with anonymous c**ts on socially media thinking they are able to say and do anything without consequences, the more this is highlighted the more chance something gets done to stop it.

 

So because he brought it up in public those trolls are going to stop now? If anything it will have the opposite effect.

7 minutes ago, I am a CPA said:

So because he brought it up in public those trolls are going to stop now? If anything it will have the opposite effect.

I don't think that is very calculated from him. I don't think he is a calculative person which for me is very positive. 

Anyway the trolls need to take a long hard look at themselves...

4 hours ago, I am a CPA said:

If every person who had death threats got a bodyguard there would be not be enough bodyguards in this world.

And who's to say they're Chelsea fans as well? I'm not saying I agree with the death threats because I don't, at all, but can you imagine every manager or player at every press conference saying they get death threats or what sort of abuse they get on social media? 

There was no need to reveal this to the public but Potter used this press conference to take the heat off him by saying 3 things.

1. Came in and started laughing about just being in a crisis meeting.

2. Blaming Tuchel and the pre-season for our current form.

3. Revealing that he and his family are getting death threats (This should have been kept and dealt with internally).

No doubt this was all pre-meditated. Some people will quote me and say "Hurr you agree with the death threats because of what you're saying!! You're a terrible person!!". When you're in a pressure situation at the highest levels of any field in any workplace and especially in a field where you need good PR, these things are all calculated, don't be too naive to think that they aren't.

I don't wish anything bad personally on Potter but I am waiting for the day he leaves, and obviously those that are making the threats need to be dealt with internally.

Hard to disagree to be honest!

Its easy to say as a supporter ‘ah they weren’t Chelsea fans’ but if it wasn’t another clubs fans being complete trolls, they are not proper Chelsea fans anyway and part of this latest unmoderated Twitter sh*t show of complete chunts!

I’m glad forums like this exist and notice the journo’s no longer take quotes from here anymore and go straight for the fan talking sh*t on Twitter that has never been to the bridge - it creates more drama and puts the club in a bad light!

If it is actually Chelsea fans and it gets to a point where you email the manager that sort of sh*t, it’s time to question if football is actually a sport you want to watch! Absolute f**king wronguns!

The club should hand the letters to the police let them deal with it.

He should say the police have the death threats and now it is time to get on preparing for the next match.

I have not heard about CFC death threats since Anders Frisk.

 

41 minutes ago, evissy said:

Good post. Really like posts like this here. More than just simply voicing out something like "Potter out"....

Tuchel talked about creating enough chances is the metric he follows. If the team creates enough, goals and wins will follow. He spoke about that countless times. He makes sure that happens in games, players finish the chances. He can't do much more during a match. 

One thing I also don't like here is the idea that Potter didn't have the pedigree nor the history from a big club. He didn't. Many managers don't. But he didn't jump from Norway or something weird like that, he came from a club that was above Chelsea in the Prem table. Why is that blocking from hiring him? You calculate additional risk for that but with Potter you can plan for long term instead of someone like Tuchel. 

We have young players with relatively inexperienced manager who is improving players and teams. In my mind that fits. Will it work for long term, time will tell. MU trusted OGS and it failed. 

Mourinho would say he has these babies and in no way he should be winning games. 

IMO the size of this project is unprecedented with everything leading up to the take over and made even more challenging when the entire backroom, boardroom and others were let go.  If you were rebuilding Amazon for example, would you bring in PM's with limited experience, or do you attempt to bring in the best in the business that have the experience working on large projects, especially with all the moving parts that go along with it. Given Potters work history he would not be my choice. 

This is not to say that over a period of time of learning on the job and falling down Potter won't be able to work through it, but may be very painful for him and ultimately Boehly.  Boehly has no doubt had the best sports recruiting / head hunter agency dissect Potters stats, intelligence, human behaviour etc, to the eighth degree, whereby he ended up above others as the best candidate for the job.  So lets see how things play out.  Depending what you are looking to analyze, stats are just numbers that tell you about the past, present and to help predict the future, but what stats won't tell you is the unknowns that creep in occasionally......like Potter walking into a decimated squad of injured players....bet Boehly's Stats man didn't consider that when crunching the numbers; they would have an entire history and stats on each player that Potter was likely to inherit. Looked at Potters patterns of play,xg's etc against the squad and the numbers would likely return a high % of wins...but it hasn't worked out because most were injured and out of form (another unknown).  As I alluded to, I am sure Potters stats would likely look a different had he walked into a fully fit squad. 

Potter shouldn’t go public with this sh*t, don’t give the a holes any recognition, pass on anything to the police/authorities let them deal with it. 

Actually quite brave of Potter to point the finger at pre-season, because for sure a lot of the itinerary was down to the new owners, ... no way anyone in Roman's administration would have set up a visit to the LA Dodgers stadium for example. That was 100% on Boehly  for sure 🙂 . 

29 minutes ago, Sexyfootball said:

Actually quite brave of Potter to point the finger at pre-season, because for sure a lot of the itinerary was down to the new owners, ... no way anyone in Roman's administration would have set up a visit to the LA Dodgers stadium for example. That was 100% on Boehly  for sure 🙂 . 

Malang Sarr, seems like ages ago he played for us

From the legal point of view a death threat should be credible to be considered a serious matter, otherwise its just a form of verbal abuse.  If some nobody threatens you via an email, you would be stupid to take it seriously and the cops would laugh you off if you had bothered them with that.  If a known drug lord threatened you, then this becomes an entirely different thing.  

In Potter's case he clearly reached out for sympathy unjustifiably using a sensitive subject and it says a lot about his character. 

14 minutes ago, azpi28 said:

Malang Sarr, seems like ages ago he played for us

Absolutely crazy to think that he had better performances for us than Koulibaly.

He’s talked a whole lot since the start of the week. Let’s see if all that talk was yet again just words or he actually gives us a reason to start backing him. 

1 hour ago, Sconnie Blue said:

He’s talked a whole lot since the start of the week. Let’s see if all that talk was yet again just words or he actually gives us a reason to start backing him. 

It is a change of approach by him, makes me think something has changed in the background.

7 hours ago, Bebe1980 said:

Sorry it was a bit cryptic...

You have the likeness of @Munkworth so well drawn at the top.

23 minutes ago, axman2526 said:

It is a change of approach by him, makes me think something has changed in the background.

Boehly probably offered him a 10 year contract extension

11 hours ago, I am a CPA said:

If every person who had death threats got a bodyguard there would be not be enough bodyguards in this world.

He's the manager of one of the most popular football teams in the world and his wife and kids were just threatened, I'm not sure what's wrong with the club offering him a bodyguard even if it's just temporary. 

Also, I disagree about keeping it internally. Ever since he announced it, a few toxic Chelsea fan accounts on twitter have already started deleting their accounts/locking them.

Edited February 25, 20233 yr by Frankie8Lampard

3 hours ago, Stas1 said:

From the legal point of view a death threat should be credible to be considered a serious matter, otherwise its just a form of verbal abuse.  If some nobody threatens you via an email, you would be stupid to take it seriously and the cops would laugh you off if you had bothered them with that.  If a known drug lord threatened you, then this becomes an entirely different thing.  

In Potter's case he clearly reached out for sympathy unjustifiably using a sensitive subject and it says a lot about his character. 

100% the police would investigate if a complaint was made, it is an offence. 

Obviously doesn't deserve the death threats (and whoeve made them should be prosecuted), but if we lose at Tottenham he does deserve to be sacked though

Edited February 25, 20233 yr by Drogba1

For context, Potter would need 8 wins and 1 draw in the next 10 league games to even match AVB's record, who is considered by fans to be one of our worst ever managers. AVB didn't get 300m to throw around either. That's how bad Potter has been.